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03-24-2011 06:10 AM - edited 03-24-2011 09:22 PM
At the close:
The May corn futures settled 21 1/4 cents higher at $7.02 1/4. The May soybean contract settled 3 1/4 cents higher at $13.54 1/2. The May wheat futures closed 25 1/4 cents higher at $7.39 1/2. The May soybean meal futures settled $0.20 per short ton lower at $359.80. The May soyoil futures closed $0.64 higher at $56.12.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.33 per barrel lower, the dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are up 84 points.
One analyst says, "I think corn finally noticed the rally in wheat today. Wheat was the leader on the dry weather in the Great Plains, corn and then soybeans followed. Another lighter volume affair, my specs and my commercials were quiet. Tomorrow might be a down day, but the overall tone is good. No rain is likely in the western Great Plains until next week.
Yet another analyst says, "This is one of the biggest Planting Reports I can ever remember, due to corn and bean ending stocks nearing historic lows. I look for higher prices ahead of the report, as the fear is the acreage numbers for corn and beans won't be high enough to ensure we can meet expanding world demand and build safer ending stocks numbers, should we have a dry growing season. Pre-report trade estimates by the brokerage industry come out Monday, giving us a look at how the money- side of the industry views this report. We will also get the average industry estimates and how it is positioned ahead of the report."
The May corn futures are 12 cents higher at $6.93. The May soybean contract is 3/4 of a cent lower at $13.50 1/2. The May wheat futures are 14 3/4 cents higher at $7.29. The May soybean meal futures are $1.40 per short ton lower at $358.60. The May soyoil futures are $0.27 higher at $55.75.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.29 per barrel higher, the dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are up 93 points.
Buying has re-entered the corn and wheat markets. A Dow Jones Newswire story indicates that today's Export Sales report doesn't show any corn sales to China.
At the open:
The May corn futures opened 3/4 of a cent higher at $6.81 1/2. The May soybean contract opened 1 cents higher at $13.52 1/4. The May wheat futures opened 5 1/4 cents higher at $7.19 1/4. The May soybean meal futures opened $1.20 per short ton higher at $361.20. The May soyoil futures opened $0.04 lower at $55.44.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.43 per barrel higher, the dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are up 36 points.
Early calls: Corn 1-2 cents higher, soybeans 2-3 cents higher and wheat 1-2 cents lower.
Overnight grain, soybean markets=Trading mostly higher.
Crude Oil=$0.58 higher at $106.00 per barrel.
Wall Street=Seen trading higher.
More in a minute,
03-24-2011 12:05 PM
Mike- First off would like to say I appreciate reading these updates I've enjoyed them for the past 6 months by being a lurker. So Thank you, you do a great job
Without news of China buying corn, what making the jump in corn that is keeping beans so stale?
03-24-2011 08:09 PM
Sorry for the delayed response. I'm a little out of pocket today. So, my insight is less than usual. I'm told corn rallied off of wheat. Overall, the market is awaiting the 3/31 report.
Let me say thanks for following along with Marketeye. I appreciate your comments. I look forward to reading your insight from your corner of the world. Have you sold all of your old-crop? Or, are you holding on to some yet?
03-24-2011 10:25 PM
I still have half of my wheat, which is not unusual for this time of year for me if I think the market is on edge.
Interestingly, I noticed China bought PNW white wheat. I don't know the last time this happened. Maybe I never noticed. I would guess it's been a very long time. I would have thought they would have purchased from Australia.
One issue is the relative value of wheat and corn. If wheat falls it becomes feed at this ratio.
03-25-2011 12:20 AM
In my export oriented market I have wheat flat all the way out, though higher in Jan 2012 by 60¢.
Wheat is going to be all weather (Southern Plains, Russia, China, etc) markets from here on out. But the floor is going to be feed prices. It is really hard to underestimate the importance of the next corn/bean crop in N America. Wheat could be more than adequate on the global scene, but I don't see that as the case for corn and beans. Wheat or alternative feeds will very likely have to backfill if we do not have a very good year for corn and beans.
You could almost flip a coin. On the other hand I think a significant downside could be less likely than a significantly bullish upside for corn and beans. Wheat will move with corn and beans in a general way because of the close price ratio.
I believe the soonest we will get a decent idea will be 3 months.