Mike remember that

[reubencbd]

Hope Ditka doesn't read this board

[Mike M2692830]

I couldn't agree more but in that scenerio, lets say beans acres come in way short and away we go, wouldn't corn follow just because it has to maintain its profit/acre over beans. The fear of not having enough bean acres could cause more bean acres to be planted with a huge price run up. We had that same conversation this am over coffee. Local coop price was Oct corn at 5.51 and beans at 12.60. Hard to chase an extra corn field with those numbers but a 7 in front of corn and beans the same or beans at 14 and corn the same..might change the game in a month...MikeM

[jrw322]

Mike - This paragraph below has me so confused that I don't know whether to stay long corn, or short it...If Bloomberg has released a pre-USDA acreage poll that shows a projected increase of 3.559 million acres, then their estimate for the total acreage cannot be only at 91.751 million acres, while the market tanks! Please clarify. Thanx!!

At 10am:

One analyst is looking at the market, today, and saying this:  "Bloomberg news released their pre-report acreage poll and that's controlling the opening ranges. Beans are up after the report showed 618,000 less bean acres will be planted. Corn is trading lower off a estimate of 3.559 million acres more to seed. And wheat, off slightly, with a
estimate of 3.636 million acres more wheat to be planted. Expect a lot of two-sided trad prior the report, as positioning and evening up takes place."

Meanwhile, he says, Bloomberg News estimates for corn were 91.751 million acres, vs. USDA's previous estimate of 92.0. For soybeans, the average trade estimate is 76.78, below the USDA previous estimate of 78.0. And All Wheat at 57.239 vs. the USDA previous estimate of 57.0."

[Dennis6029]

The 3.559 is being added to the 2010 plantings of 88.2 in the last WASDE.  That is where the 91.759 number comes from.

[marketeye]

The corn number is based on a comparison from last year's acres.

Mike

[gbryce]

I expect that a report that came in out of line with average trade guess would probably set a trading range til we get an idea on how quick the crop is going in. But IMO if the report came out neutral, I think we would pretty quickly (say within a day) start trading NC  on any  weather events ,either 10 day forecast or updated summer forecast or La Nina strength forecasts. OC would likely trade current world events as it has been. But I think trade will get more volatility after report.

[marketeye]

Mizzou_Tiger,

Jim Meade brought this map to my attention. The green-colored spots show where it makes more sense to plant corn, the orange and red soybeans. Yellow signifies counties that normally would see soybean advantages, but this year's harvest price bids make corn more profitable. This map is from the University of Illinois. What do you think?

[gbryce]

Marketeye, that is an interesting map.  Right off I do not know what the county averages would be for the far west counties in Missouri, but i would have guessed it would be yellow. as quite a most ground around is in a C/S or a W/S/C rotation, hardly ever see corn on corn here. I think some of it is due to more need to rotate to No-till Soybeans to avoid erosion on HEL ground. I just do not think more corn will be planted just because of profitability, high cost of production, April weather, soil erosion, will put more beans in even with lower profitability.

[Mizzou_Tiger]

counties that have snow on them and April will be here this week...............again, that map is a nice map, but it does not show me more acres............IMO corn will get more acres in 2011 than it did in 2010.........not arguing this point........I am simply saying that if we need 78M plus soya acres and 92M plus corn acres..................its not going to happen...........and if we have a weather issue then we need 80M plus soya acres and 94M plus corn acres................AND THAT WILL NOT HAPPEN..........

My point is best case scenerio we keep stocks bascially the same a year from now...............average scenerio we lower stocks and hope rationing takes care of the rest................worst case stocks get very close if not hit zero......................

Best case scenerio keeps "policy on the sideline"..............average scenerio likely means spikes of prices and maybe some ethanol "policy" changes.................worst case we will see "policy" changes, which will artifically change the fundamentals...........

Thanks for your updates.........

[stupid]

I farm in Illinois where the green prevails(from map),  but I like most neighbors are saying beans are profitable so were not chasing the corn on corn dollars. We got our field work done last fall and not changing. I would like for everyone to understand this report is a guess at what we are planting to try to manipulate the markets. The problem is the weather will dictate what happens. Most of the predictors dont farm or look at current weather problems. I have a very hard time seeing large corn increases in the northern areas.