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Veteran Advisor

From the floor May 10

At the close:

The July corn futures settled 1/4 of a cent lower at $7.07 1/4. The July soybean contract closed 3 cents higher at $13.38. The July wheat futures closed 8 1/4 cents higher at $7.98 3/4. The July soybean meal futures settled $0.10 per short ton lower at $350.30. The July soyoil futures are $0.51 higher at $56.80.

 

In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $1.18 per barrel higher, the dollar is lower and the Dow Jones Industrials are up 93 points.

 

Mike

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At 12:48pm:

CME Group revises plan for the current 30¢ daily corn limits to jump to 40¢, not the originaly-proposed 50¢ limit.

 

In a press release Tuesday, the exchange says, "The CME Group had revised its recent proposal to increase daily price limits for Corn futures and options. Pending CFTC approval, daily limits on CBOT Corn futures and options would increase to $0.40 per bushel from the current $0.30 per bushel, replacing a late April proposal to increase daily limits to $0.50 per bushel."

 

 

Mike

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At 11:30am:

Wednesday report preview:

Some believe the USDA will leave the U.S. old-crop corn ending stock at 675 million bushels. Others believe the government will lower this number in tomorrow's report. One corn pit trader says:

"A lot of folks believe that number is more like 475 million or something. So, if the government drops that 675 at all tomorow, the market will take that as the reality of it is that the number is probably smaller."

 

Mike

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At mid-session:

The July corn futures are 13 1/2 cents higher at $7.21. The July soybean contract is 14 cents higher at $13.49. The July wheat futures are 19 1/4 cents higher at $8.09 3/4. The July soybean meal futures are $2.40 per short ton higher at $352.80. The July soyoil futures are $0.69 higher at $56.98.

 

In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.65 per barrel higher, the dollar is lower and the Dow Jones Industrials are up 49 points.

 

One floor trader says despite a surge in western Corn Belt planting last week, the eastern Corn Belt states remain way behind normal.
"Initially, the markets were led higher by the wheat market. Plus, tomorrow's USDA Reports are expected to show tighter corn stocks. That is making the old-crop contracts pounce on new-crop prices. This week's USDA Crop Progress numbers are getting discounted. Though the planting progress, at 40% as of Sunday, was further along than expected, the reality is the farmers in Indiana and Ohio are lagging on corn planting."
Corn emergence is the next thing the market will be eyeing, he says. "If Iowa can't record a 35% emergence rate next week, then we'll say that state might have a yield problem.


Likewise, the soybean market is well supported by slower-than-expected planting progress. "In addition, crude oil has rallied $2.00 off its recent low. That supports the bean market."

 

Mike

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At the open:

The July corn futures opened 9 cents higher at $7.16 1/2. The July soybean contract opened 9 cents higher at $13.44. The July wheat futures opened 16 3/4 cents higher at $8.07. The July soybean meal futures opened $3.10 per short ton higher at $353.30. The July soyoil futures are $0.25 higher at $56.54.

 

In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.14 per barrel lower, the dollar is lower and the Dow Jones Industrials are down 14 points.

 

Mike

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At 7:21am:

Tomorrow, the USDA will release its May Supply/Demand and Stocks Reports at 7:30am CST. We'll have the results and reaction to it right here. But, in general, old-crop corn supplies are expected to be unchanged. For soybeans, slower demand has analysts thinking the government will raise the old-crop ending stocks. It seems to me those two report items would be bearish. Or, does the fact that the USDA doesn't lower, but doesn't raise the corn number still make that bullish?

 

And then there is a lot of touting about the USDA releasing its first 2012 supply numbers. But, those are hard to believe at this point aren't they? Now, this is just my opinion, at 7:25am on Tuesday. But, this report has that feeling that the market will trade these numbers for a very short time and move on to weather. What do you think?

 

China's April Export/Import #'s:

--Jan-April soybean imports 14.84 million tons, down 2.6% vs. a year ago

--April soybean imports equal 3.88 million tons, down 7.4% on year

--April corn exports estimated at 9,912 tons, up 50% on year

 

Mike

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At 6:45am:

Early calls: Corn 4-6 cents higher, soybeans 7-9 cents higher and wheat 13-15 cents higher.


Trackers:

Overnight grain, soybean markets=Trading higher.

Crude Oil=$0.65 lower.

Dollar=Higher.

Wall Street=Seen trading higher as China reports strengthening exports.

World Markets=Higher

 

Note: Did you know there is a chicken salad sandwich war between Wendy's and Subway? They both have recently introduced that sandwich to customers.

 

More in a minute,

 

Mike

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6 Replies
Senior Contributor

Re: From the floor May 10

I vote for the Subway chicken salad. Does that make me bullish? Smiley Happy

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Veteran Advisor

Re: From the floor May 10

I think that makes you a chicken of the bulls. Just sayin'.

 

Honestly, are you watching the market right now  because you still have some old-crop left to market? Or, are you watching the market to see where Dec. corn and Nov. beans futures go? Just curious.

 

Mike

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Senior Contributor

Re: From the floor May 10

Still holding my last 5% of old crop corn. 0% sold on new crop. Guess that makes me pretty long. Why am I watching the market right now? Mostly because it is too wet to do anything else. I expect I won't get excited about moving my old crop until June although all the recent choppieness increased my beer consumption. I would have sold some new crop two weeks ago but I'm a little nervous about doing so without any seed in the ground.

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Advisor

Re: From the floor May 10

    Marketeye    40% sold on new crop beans.  $13 was too good to pass up.   With that and last years bounty I won't need to sell anything till fall 2012.  As long as I stay away from the JD dealer.

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Advisor

Re: From the floor May 10

i don't know about the old crop bushels but if demand stays firm we may have a big problem houston--i'm sorry-- chicago. i drive a truck and have personally seen tens of thousands of acres underwater and the rest of s.IN, KY, TENN, OH a wet mess. I know most of the crop is out west but it better be awfully good. just my opinion.

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Advisor

Re: From the floor May 10

   Yes it has been wet but every year is different.   Except for having a few days in April last year to do field work this year is shaping up to be similar to last year in my little slice of Americana.  I planted the first seed May 28th last year and had the best year ever.  Yes, that is unusual.  We also had the hottest summer in memory but no days over 98 degrees which is also unusual.  The law of supply and demand doesn't always work like one thinks it should if the money boys don't have their sights set on grains.

  

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