05-11-2010 10:11 AM
From the floor May 11
Corn is now up a nickel, beans down a few cents, and wheat up 3 cents. One analyst says, "Reports are like reading tea leaves , you have to put them under a micro-scope to see the hidden meaning. Corn was easy the crop report showed demand stronger than the trade had thought and this opens the door for lower ending stocks and this pushed us higher on the open. Beans opened lower as the report didn’t lower ending stocks as expected but hidden in the numbers something friendly was found. The report raised exports and the crush for domestic use , the higher exports were the fourth consecutive month but the report played a game and lowered residual usage to offset the rising demand , this had beans rally off its low but two sided trade should be expected."
At the open:
The July corn futures opened 1 cent higher at $3.71 1/2. The Dec corn contract is up 1 3/4 cents at $3.88 1/4. The July soybean futures contract opened 6 cents lower at $9.55 per bushel. The July wheat futures opened 2 3/4 cents lower at $4.90. July soybean meal futures opened $1.90 per short ton lower at $277.50 per short ton. The July soyoil futures opened 21 points lower at $38.18.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.30 per barrel higher, the dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are down 54 points.
It seems weird not typing a triple digit number for the Dow.
Based on the report, one trader says, "I think at the end of the day the report will be viewed as constructive to old crop corn so you will see bull spreads work once again with old crop corn gaining on new crop corn."
USDA announced 111,710 metric tons of U.S. wheat sales this morning for both 2009/10 & 2010/2011 delivery.
Now traders say the corn market will open 1-2 cents lower, soybeans 7-10 cents lower, and wheat 5-7 cents lower. Corn is being called lower because of lower overnight trading, and wheat possibly pulling corn down at the open.
By the way, the USDA revised down the 2009-10 U.S. crop production from 13.13 billion bushels to 13.11.
USDA report seen friendly corn, unfriendly soybeans, negative wheat.
Traders call the corn market 1-2 cents higher, soybeans 7-10 cents lower, and wheat 5-7 cents lower. "But, let's see what the outside markets are doing at 9:30am. That will dictate how these grain markets trade," one CME Group floor trader says.
For U.S. 2009-10 soybean, USDA estimates carryout at 190 million bushels, compared to the analysts estimate of 182 million bushels and the USDA's previous estimate of 190 million. For 2010-11, USDA estimates U.S. carryout at 365 million bushels, vs. the analysts estimates of 338 million bushels.
For U.S. 2009-10 corn, USDA estimates carryout at 1.738 billion bushels, compared to the analysts estimate of 1.853 billion bushels and the USDA's previous estimate of 1.899 billion. For 2010-11, USDA estimates U.S. carryout at 1.818 billion bushels, vs. the analysts estimates of 1.884 billion million bushels.
In its report, the USDA estimated 2009-10 wheat carryout at 950 million bushels, compared to the analysts estimate at 950 million bushels and the USDA's previous estimate of 950 million bushels. For 2010-11, the USDA estimates U.S. wheat carryout at 997 million vs. the analysts estimate of 961 million bushels.