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marketeye
Veteran Advisor

From the floor May 18

At the close:

The July corn futures settled 29 1/4 cents higher at $7.49 3/4. The July soybean contract settled 38 1/2 cents higher at $13.79 1/2. The July wheat futures closed 53 cents higher at $8.17. The July soybean meal futures closed $10.60 per short ton higher at $361.00. July soyoil settled $1.26 higher at $57.30.

 

In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $2.84 per barrel higher, the dollar is lower and the Dow Jones Industrials are up 80 points.

 

Mike

--------

At 12:20pm:

Corn hits limit-up!

 

Mike

-------

At 12-Noon:

The July corn futures are 27 cents higher at $7.48. The July soybean contract is 34 cents higher at $13.75. The July wheat futures are 45 3/4 cents higher at $8.09 3/4. The July soybean meal futures are $9.00 per short ton higher at $359.40. July soyoil is trading $1.42 higher at $57.46.

 

In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $3.47 per barrel higher, the dollar is lower and the Dow Jones Industrials are up 34 points.

 

One corn trader says, "A firm cash market and planting delays are helping the corn market rally.
"With a cash market that is firm it's telling the market that end-users are having a hard time finding an offer. If you have corn you are golden," he says. That scenario is keeping the July futures contract strong."

With nearly no planting progress in Ohio and little in Indiana and North Dakota, the market is feeding off of that slower pace, he says. "If it stays wet, next week, that pushes those farmers up against their insurance dates."

Longterm, the market is eyeing how much corn Iowa and Illinois plant, he says. "Because, if Iowa goes above its expected acres and gets a bumper yield, maybe the losses in Ohio and Indiana won't matter."

 

Mike

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At the open:

The July corn futures opened 19 cents higher at $7.38 3/4. The July soybean contract opened 15 cents higher at $13.55. The July wheat futures opened 22 cents higher at $7.87. The July soybean meal futures opened $4.40 per short ton higher at $354.90. July soyoil is trading $0.93 higher at $56.95.

 

In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $1.76 per barrel higher, the dollar is higher and the Dow Jones Industrials are down 5 points.

 

Mike

--------------

At 6:10am:

Early calls: Corn 6-8 cents higher, soybeans 2-4 cents higher, and wheat 7-9 cents higher.


Trackers:

Overnight grain, soybean markets=Trading higher.

Crude Oil=$1.25 higher.

Dollar=Lower.

Wall Street=Seen trading higher after some bargain hunting set in yesterday.

World Markets=Higher.

 

News nuggets:

--Deere reported Wednesday record second-quarter net earnings. The record was helped set by higher farm equipment sales in the U.S., Canada and Brazil.

--Japan seeks 250,000 metric tons of feed grain for a May tender.

--Word is that China's farmers are low on corn and China sees a soyoil glut with Argentina imports, according to the Dow Jones Newswire.

--It's raining in Chicago and looks like it could be in Indiana. The markets are expected to continue to trade rainy weather for corn and dry for wheat.

 


 

More in a minute,

 

Mike

 

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30 Replies
NCcorntrader
Senior Contributor

Re: From the floor May 18

Good morning Mike

 

So Im thinking barring some exceptional news, we are in a trading range for a while. My guess is between 650-730 for old corn. You think the next mover would be the June 30 report or something sooner?

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marketeye
Veteran Advisor

Re: From the floor May 18

NCcorntrader,

 

I think we stay with weather for awhile here. You can't have planting progress, if you can't get into the field. Emergence numbers and soybean planting progress still have market plays. Keep one eye on China, and the continued weak dollar. All of those are positive for grain prices. Negative for the market is the weak economy, tightening of world economies, and an apparent downturn in demand.

 

Interesting to note, this year's a tough year to spread trade the corn and soybean markets. Here is the latest Marketeye video discussing inverted futures contracts.

 

Here is the linkhttp://tinyurl.com/3ov42cq

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NCcorntrader
Senior Contributor

Re: From the floor May 18

Interesting interview- thanks for posting.

 

Im not doing any spread trades- just flat price.

 

Speaking of demand, is there any from ethanol producers at this price? With RBOB gas getting hammered over the last few days I dont see how.

 

All just my opinion of course.

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Pupdaddy
Advisor

Re: From the floor May 18

Basis in Fostoria, Ohio is 8 cents over the Chicago price. Poet has an ethanol plant right outside town...and basis there is 10 cents over. They're offering free DP until July 31..and special August pricing incentives. I think someone still wants corn.

 

Tags (1)
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NCcorntrader
Senior Contributor

Re: From the floor May 18

Thanks for the info, but so I am clear, what do you mean by "basis"? Is it simply the price they are paying for delivery or something else? Also, I found the DP means delayed pricing but could not find out how it works. If you could explain briefly I would be grateful. TIA

 

 

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Dodger
Contributor

Re: From the floor May 18

Corn trader, you need a new name- basis=cost of doing business, or in this case what the processors are adding to the corn price off the CBOT board, or the "premium" they are paying. DP=free storage. Bring in your corn, we wont charge storage, and you can price it whenever you want, or a month later when the price goes up. i.e. delayed pricing.

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Dodger
Contributor

Re: From the floor May 18

Is it the rain in Spain (Chicago) that is making things blow up today? Whats making the rally? Read some think commodiites are going to get back on the horse, and  alot of negative talk about the economy and equities being over bought, is it tech buying?

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Nebraska Sandhiller
Frequent Contributor

Re: From the floor May 18

If they are paying +.10 basis, they are paying 10 cents more than the crooks on the board of trade have it priced.  Our basis in NW Nebraska lately is over $1.00 under the board at my bin.  So if the july 11 board price is $7.49, I might be able so cash contrat some picked up at my bin for close to $6.49.  

Some guys got it good, and don't know how good!

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NCcorntrader
Senior Contributor

Re: From the floor May 18

**bleep**- dog a guy for asking questions

 

anyway

 

basis in my mind refers to the cost basis of something, so for an ethanol producer that would be the basis of producing a gallon or whatever volume- anything above the cost basis would then be profit. so the confusion arises when he talks about "10 cents over basis" this could mean what you have described OR there is a 10 cent profit for the producer at current price levels

 

now as far as DP goes, isnt the fact that they are offering 0 DP indicate they think prices will go down? why would they otherwise demand no premium for a future sale?

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