From the floor May 19

[marketeye]

At the close:

The July corn futures ended 1/2 of a cent lower at $3.59 1/4.  The July soybean futures contract settled 1 cent lower at $9.38 1/2 per bushel. The July wheat futures finished 1 1/2 cents higher at $4.69 /4. July soybean meal futures closed $0.20 per short ton lower at $273.40 per short ton. The July soyoil futures closed 31 points higher at $37.50.

In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.25 per barrel lower, the dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are down 86 points.

The outside markets started to come into favor. But, the grain markets still closed mostly lower. One floor analyst says it was a constructive close in corn and wheat. But again, the cure for cheap prices is cheap prices. The dollar broke sharply. Very quiet market.

Mike

-----------

At mid-session:

The July corn futures are trading 4 3/4 cents lower at $3.55.  The July soybean futures contract is 1 cent lower at $9.38 1/2 per bushel. The July wheat futures are 4 1/4 cents higher at $4.72. July soybean meal futures are $0.06 per short ton higher at $274.20 per short ton. The July soyoil futures are 14 points lower at $37.04.

In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $1.35 per barrel lower, the dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are down 129 points.

The crude oil market has fallen out of bed, weighing on the grains. Plus, the DJ Industrials are deep into negative territory.

One analyst says, "Mid-session continues to see grains following the energy markets. After a higher opening range on grains, in sympathy with a friendly crude oil inventory report, crude oil and other grain sensitive energy markets have turned sharply lower pulling corn, beans and wheat from their highs to new lows on the day. But, considering the steep drop of the outside market break, grains are holding well as we're at or near technical support for corn and beans."

Mike

--------------

At 10:30am:

On analyst says, "Grains opened flat but quickly turned higher on two fronts. One, the crudeoil inventory report expected to be bearish saw only a 200,000 barrel increase in weekly inventory well under the 1.4 m.b. increase expected. This pulled the corn up with ethanol futures and bean and their relationship to higher bio-fuels. The second issue was the National Weather Service last night said April was the warmest in the U.S. since records were kept with the Midwest the 12th driest. Though good to insure early planting the trade talk today was crops will be seeded by the end of next week. What if we continue on a warmer and drier than normal pattern? The market trades fear before fact and we may begin to build a seasonal weather premium that reflects the uncertainty of the growing season."

Mike

---------------

At the open:
The July corn futures opened 1 cent higher at $3.60 3/4.  The July soybean futures contract opened 1/2 of a cent lower at $9.39 per bushel, Nov beans are 5 cents lower at $9.08 1/2. The July wheat futures opened 1/4 of a cent lower at $4.67 1/2. July soybean meal futures opened $0.20 per short ton higher at $273.80 per short ton. The July soyoil futures opened 4 points lower at $37.15.

In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.52 per barrel lower, the dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are down 78 points.

Mike

--------------

At 9am:

USDA announces the sale of 124,000 metric tons of U.S. corn to unknown buyer for 2009-10 delivery. Do you think it's China? Also, traders are talking about the news that more private China companies are seeking import licenses for corn.

Mike

--------------

At 6:30am:

Early calls: Corn down 1-2 cents, soybeans down 1-2 cents, and wheat down 1-2 cents.  

Trackers:

Overnight grain=Trading lower.

Crude oil=Trading $1.15 per barrel lower.

U.S. Dollar=Trading lower.

World Markets=Lower.

Wall Street=Seen opening weaker with pressure from proposed federal financial regulation measures. Also, worries over Europe's financial crisis is weighing on the stock market.

More in a minute,

Mike

[RichILL]

Mike, any chatter about how far China corn purchases could possibly go?  I know it's very hard to get a handle on Chinese supply and demand numbers, especially supply.  With their DDG buying and soybean demand, how short could their corn stocks possibly be?  I know they feed half of the world's pigs and that takes a lot of corn.  Just how bad is the drought area getting in their corn producing areas?

[marketeye]

The drought must have been worse than they wanted to report. China keeps selling their corn reserves. And they have to replenish those reserves. The replenished supply is coming from the U.S.

Mike

[floydboy]

"The second issue was the National Weather Service last night said April was the warmest in the U.S. since records were kept with the Midwest the 12th driest."

Any indication of where this data comes from? I get no indication that the U.S. had its warmest April ever (looks like it ranked in the top 15 according to my records) and the Midwest was nowhere close to having its 12th driest April ever