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Veteran Advisor

From the floor May 25

At the close:
The July corn futures closed 6 3/4 cents lower at $3.64 1/2, Dec. corn settled 6 1/4 cents lower at $3.82 3/4.  The July soybean futures contract closed 10 cents lower at $9.30 1/2 per bushel, a 10-week low. Nov. soybeans settled down 12 1/2 cents at $9.03. The July wheat futures closed 7 cents lower at $4.60 1/2. July soybean meal futures ended $3.50 lower at $371.70 per short ton. The July soyoil futures settled 35 points lower at $37.17.

In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $1.56 per barrel lower, the dollar is higher, and the Dow Jones Industrials are down 148 points.
One trader says the outside markets killed the grains today. Elsewhere, it's being reported that the first ship is being stalled at the mouth of the Mississippi River at the Gulf of Mexico, due to the oil spill. One trader says the markets are not reacting to that news yet. There would have to be more ships affected than just one. Soybeans hit a 10-week low, cattle futures hit a 4-month low.
Mike
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At 12:30pm:
The floor is fairly quiet as we sit on these lower prices. corn -6, soybeans -8, wheat -4. In fact, some traders are carrying around Blackhawk jersey's. This city is getting revved up for the NHL Stanley Cup.
Mike
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At mid-session:
The July corn futures are 4 1/2 cents lower at $3.66 1/2, Dec. corn is 5 3/4 cents lower at $3.83 1/4.  The July soybean futures contract is 7 cents lower at $9.34 1/2 per bushel, Nov. down 9 1/2 cents at $9.06. The July wheat futures are 4 cents lower at $4.63 1/2. July soybean meal futures are $0.70 lower at $273.00 per short ton. The July soyoil futures 46 points lower at $37.06.

In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $1.81 per barrel lower, the dollar is higher, and the Dow Jones Industrials are down 188 points.
On today's market, the outside markets are keeping prices lower. But, if you unhooked the world economic issues, the corn and soybeans would be unchanged, one trader says. The China corn-buying story keeps a floor under the corn market. We just can't get away from that story. For soybeans, slow planting is what's being talked about that is keeping a floor under that market. Longterm, if you take China out of the picture, corn could trade around $3.50 or lower, easily, the trader says. And there's a lot of talk that there are more soybean acres out there than is being reported. And when the market realizes the higher soy acres, that market will dive. In the meantime, the outside markets seem to have a loosy-goosy grip on the grains, from day-to-day. One day nobody cares about what the outside markets are doing and the next day the grains are married to the outsides, he says.
Mike
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Mike
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At the open:
The July corn futures opened 6 1/2 cents lower at $3.64 1/2, Dec. corn is 7 cents lower at $3.73.  The July soybean futures contract opened 11 cents lower at $9.29 1/2 per bushel, Nov. down 13 1/2 cents at $9.02. The July wheat futures opened 9 cents lower at $4.58 1/2. July soybean meal futures opened $3.20 lower at $270.50 per short ton. The July soyoil futures opened 52 points lower at $37.00.

In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $2.13 per barrel lower, the dollar is higher, and the Dow Jones Industrials are down 221 points.
THE BEARS HAVE THE PLACE SURROUNDED!
Mike
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At 8:16am:
One analyst puts the open this way, "Grains look to open lower today on several fronts, starting with a near perfect growing season 5 day outlook of warm days and a few timely showers in the Midwest. Last night's crop progress report put the condition of this years corn crop at 71% good to excellent condition up from 67% last week  while spring wheat had its first rating of the year come in at 85% G-E condition versus 73% ayear ago. Beans showed 53% of the crop is now planted and with this weeks weather we should advance on planting and conditions of all crops. The big news pressuring grains overnight and on the day opening is sharp drops in outside markets with crude oil off over two dollars, lower metals and stock market . This leads to funds selling the broad-based commodities. But, look for some buying off the early lows as traders note a strong demand base and uncertainty over long term weather outlooks into summer."
Mike
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At 6:30am:
Early calls: Corn down 3-5 cents, soybeans down 8-10 cents, and wheat down 3-5 cents. 
Trackers:
Overnight grain=Trading sharply lower.
Crude oil=Trading $2.51 per barrel lower.
U.S. Dollar=Trading higher as the euro weakens.
World Markets=Tanking.

Wall Street=Seen opening lower on European bank sector concerns and Korea worries.

 

Note: I don't think I've seen such a gloomy outlook to start a trading day. Nothing is supportive for the grains. And nothing looks very supportive for the financials. This could be an interesting ride down the hill.

 

More in a minute,

 

Mike

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5 Replies
Senior Contributor

Re: From the floor May 25

It is such a bright sunny day here.

Now it seems gloomy.

I still own too much corn!

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Veteran Advisor

Re: From the floor May 25

Marketeye question for you. Some of the european dairy man are saying with the weak Euro they are finding it hard to purchase SBM to feed cows therefore lowering milk yields. I was wondering what thier price for bean meal is in comparison to ours? DO you know where to look for that data? or Maybe eurofarmaer can help us out.

 I just thought if this infact becomes a longer term trend won't that hurt our soy price here in America?

THanks for your posts. JR

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Contributor

Re: From the floor May 25

Mike,  We sold some corn yesterday after the run last week.  Wished the price was a little higher but wanted to get more on the books given it is almost  June  1st. 

 

Went to finish planting beans on a farm 20 miles from our home place, and the corn all the way there looks good after a few warm days.  Not too many beans planted here in SWIA.

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Veteran Advisor

Re: From the floor May 25

So, you're saying that so far, everything looks good in "God's Country"? Great to hear from SWIA. I haven't had a chance to talk to my relatives from that area for awhile. It's good to hear you rewarded the market a little and did you send that thank you card to China yet? Or is that going in the mail yet this week? Smiley Happy.

 

Mike

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Senior Advisor

Re: From the floor May 25

As you mention, El Nino is starting to get some consideration.  Are we too early to start thinking of weather?  If weather becomes a play, my goal will be to let the market come on down and buy some calls against my shorts.

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