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Veteran Advisor

From the floor May 26

At the close:
The July corn futures ended 6 3/4 cents higher at $3.71.  The July soybean futures contract settled 8 1/2 cents higher at $9.39 per bushel. The July wheat futures closed unchanged at $4.60 1/2. July soybean meal futures settled $2.00 higher at $271.10 per short ton. The July soyoil futures closed 37 points higher at $37.88.

In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $2.72 per barrel higher, the dollar is higher, and the Dow Jones Industrials are up 63 points.
Today's market benefited from short-covering and a much stronger crude oil market, traders say. Meanwhile, one analyst says that in order to look ahead you need to look back. "Last week corn, beans and wheat all hit our support low prices given and rallied.  July corn $0.23 off support, July wheat $0.19 off support and July beans $0.21 off support, but we are still in that grey area called the planting season where we are confined between support and resistance chart lines."
    The analyst adds, "Next week things change.  Markets are closed next Monday for the Memorial Day holiday.  Seasonally, grain rallies after Memorial Day as the planting season is over and the growing season begins.  June and July builds a weather premium in the market to reflect the uncertainty of the growing season.  Being in a El Nino weather pattern this year we should expect a warmer and drier than normal summer.  April was the warmest on record and one of the driest in the upper Midwest.  May through today lends to a drier month and clearly one of the warmest but it is key yield time from late June through July when weather makes or breaks the yields.  Strong demand and uncertain weather says this week’s lows could hold through to mid-August.  The wild card still remains outside market pressure influence.  July corn finds support at 3.54 and resistance up at 3.88.  July wheat supports at 4.60, a close under and the 5.20 to 5.30 area looms.  If 4.60 holds; 5.05 is upside resistance.  July bean support remains 9.30; then 9.20 with resistance at 9.45 then 9.76. The most recent weather outlooks indicate that we could come in next Tuesday with rain for the first week of June. This would give us a lower open but a potentially great early June buy," he says.

Mike
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At mid-session:
The July corn futures are 5 1/2 cents higher at $3.69 3/4.  The July soybean futures contract is 4 1/2 cents higher at $9.35 per bushel. The July wheat futures are 1/2 of a cent higher at $4.61. July soybean meal futures are $2.00 higher at $271.30 per short ton. The July soyoil futures are 36 points higher at $37.53.

In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $2.04 per barrel higher, the dollar is higher, and the Dow Jones Industrials are up 67 points.
Mike
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At the open, the July corn futures opened 6 cents higher at $3.70 1/2. The July soybean futures contract opened 8 1/2 cents higher at $9.39 per bushel, Nov. up 7 1/2 cents at $9.10 1/2. The July wheat futures opened 7 1/2 cents higher at $4.68. July soybean meal futures opened $2.40 higher at $273.50 per short ton. The July soyoil futures opened 33 points higher at $37.50.

In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $1.86 per barrel higher, the dollar is higher, and the Dow Jones Industrials are up 112 points.

   One analyst says, "After sharply lower commodity prices across the board Tuesday, Wednesday brought short- covering and long-buying as corn, beans and wheat bounce off chart support. Adding to the strength was a construed bullish crude oil inventory report showing a smaller than expected increase in weekly crude inventories while gasoline and ethanol inventories declined off summer high demand usage. All of this is pulling energy sensitive corn and soyoil along for the ride. Grains should soften into mid-session but hold gains on the close as traders expect Thursdays weekly export  sales report to show continued strong demand into Asian countries featuring China."
Mike
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At 8:15am:
S. Korea tendered for 55,000 metric tons of U.S. corn. This would be for delivery this year.
Mike
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At 6:30am:
Early calls: Corn up 3-5 cents, soybeans up 6-8 cents, and wheat up 3-5 cents. It feels like 'Turnaround Wednesday'.
Trackers:
Overnight grain=Trading higher.
Crude oil=Trading $1.97 per barrel higher.
U.S. Dollar=Trading higher as the euro weakens.
World Markets=Higher.

Wall Street=Seen opening higher as bargain hunting begins amongst investors. Also, the foreign banks are suppportive for the first time in awhile. Investors await reports on home sales and durable goods.

 

More in a minute,

 

Mike

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3 Replies
Contributor

Re: From the floor May 26

Mike I couldn't agree with the analyst any less. Historically grains have been a coin toss after memorial day, check it out, in 06/07 they rallied, but in 08/09 they got slaughtered.  I was excited about corn, but the low crude prices and stronger dollar have me turning towards pessimism again.  

 

All I can think about are the high yield and crop size, declining livestock prices, declining oil and rallying dollar.  There are buyers in China, but I just don't know how much longer the market can hold after the June supply/demand.  

 

Economically speaking we'll be running down stimulus and housing reports, industrial reports and unemployment reports will all be looking less favorable.

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Senior Contributor

Re: From the floor May 26

j the red, agree with some, ie yield cropsize livestock prices, etc and the prospect of future china biz in corn has the trade with its nickers on the edge of wetness. but my point is that obama still has2/3s of the stimulus bill to disperse between now and november and it will be used for maximum impact to goose the dead gander one more time before the election. this info from financialsense.com numerous writers. a must read and thanks to hardnox who alerted me to the site. and speaking of nox, where ya been dude?d7 ps iknow this wont sit well with some but we could use a bit of moisture in nw ia. how about steering some this way. success to all

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Contributor

Re: From the floor May 26

That may help to 'buy' votes but I don't think it will really do much for the economy, and I doubt that it will be deployed properly.  Here's what I could find about the remaining stimulus, in early March about 70% had been allocated but only 40% used.  The balance of that may be used to put in a second bottom if we do begin to slide again.

 

Right now there's a pretty big problem going on in the bond world that is killing the banks. They were so profitable for a long time because they could borrow for next to nothing and lend at much higher rates, as the markets go sour and people buy bonds that yeild drops. The banks can't make nearly as much money, plus as markets go sour, fewer people want to borrow (there's also the risk that those who did borrow may not repay).  That's why we've seen a big slow down in the financial sector almost overnight their earning ability is being crushing, financial reform is hitting, and they've got some terrible PR.

 

I could be wrong, people do seem to buy corn right up into June Supply/Demand report, but the last two years it's sold off by almost 25% in the following weeks.  It seems like we're heading into a massive move up or down take yer pick. I think down and I'll put my money where why my mouth is in the upcoming weeks.  

 

BTW I'm just ranting a little don't take anything personally.

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