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Frequent Contributor

Re: From the floor May 9

Check out the new Freese-Notis weather update video.  Mereorologist Craig Solberg says that the weather situation is improving, but there are still problems in the southeastern Corn Belt and northern Plains.

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Veteran Advisor

Re: From the floor May 9

Monday's Crop Progress Report shows U.S. corn plantings at 40% complete. Iowa surged ahead to 69% complete, WoW! But, with the rain still falling (as Solberg says) that last half of the corn may be a chore to get in the ground. Plus, notice that soybean plantings are just 7%, behind a 28% 5-year average. Soybeans are quietly piling up a slow planting pace.

 

Mike

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Veteran Advisor

Re: From the floor May 9

It really is a case of the haves and haves not in regard to rain.  But I think IA is 69% planted on corn...and buy tonight I would guess that number is close to 90%.

 

http://usda.mannlib.cornell.edu/usda/current/CropProg/CropProg-05-09-2011.pdf

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Veteran Advisor

Re: From the floor May 9

One analyst, reacting to Monday's Crop Progress Report, says, "As expected, parts of the Western Corn Belt made significant progress. At 40% (all acres planted) this was about as expected.  The big question is how much progress the east can make this week. With a tight projected carryout (675 million bushels) there is little room for error in 2011. I would suggest this spring is less than ideal and therefore at 19% behind the five year average, looks supportive for prices.

Iowa is on schedule (69%) - the same as the five year average, but Indiana at 4% (5 year average of 49%) with rain chances each day this week suggests it will struggle to catch up soon. The northern tier of Midwestern states remain below average figures and with a rain event today and generally cooler temperatures, it'll take a real change in weather in hopes of a bin buster crop.

Indiana, Ohio (2% complete), North Dakota and Michigan really stick out as needing great weather to catch up any time before mid-May. It will not take long to plant the crop, but a later planted crop increases the anxiety of weather and forecasts playing a more significant role for price volatility and direction.

As for Soybeans, not major concerns yet - I think weather after mid-May plays a greater role. For now however attention may begin to focus on a potential increase for soybean acres if corn planting stays behind in areas of the Midwest," he says.

 

Mike

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