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Senior Contributor

From the floor November 2

At the close:

The Dec corn futures settled 1 1/2 cents lower at $5.75 3/4. The Jan. soybean contract ended 1 cent lower at $12.34. The Dec. wheat futures closed 8 1/4 cents lower at $6.94 1/4.  The Dec. soymeal futures contract settled $0.01 lower at $337.70 per short ton. The Dec. soyoil futures contract closed $0.12 lower at $49.63.


In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.96 per barrel higher, the dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are up 73 points.

 

Mike

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At mid-session:

The Dec corn futures are 1 3/4 cents lower at $5.75 1/2. The Jan. soybean contract is 1/4 of a cent lower at $12.34 3/4. The Dec. wheat futures are 4 cents lower at $6.98 1/4.  The Dec. soymeal futures contract is $0.70 lower at $337.10 per short ton. The Dec. soyoil futures contract is $0.06 lower at $49.69.


In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.84 per barrel higher, the dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are up 63 points.

 

Mike

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At 10:45am:

Informa puts U.S. corn yield at 155 bu./acre and the crop at 12.592 billion bushels. For soybeans, the firm estimates yield at 44.6 bu./acre and the crop at 3.425 billion bushels.

 

Prices have turned negative, after starting higher Tuesday.

 

Mike

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At the open:

The Dec corn futures are 4 1/4 cents higher at $5.81 1/2. The Jan. soybean contract opened 5 1/4 cents higher at $12.40 1/4. The Dec. wheat futures opened 4 1/4 cents higher at $7.07.  The Dec. soymeal futures contract opened $0.90 higher at $338.80 per short ton. The Dec. soyoil futures contract opened $0.08 lower at $49.69.


In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.89 per barrel higher, the dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are up 72 points.

 

Mike

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At 8am:

USDA announces 110,00 metric tons of U.S. HRW was sold to an unknown buyer for 2010-11 delivery.

 

Here are some thoughts from one analyst ahead of next week's report. He says, "Pre-report trade estimates by the long list of brokerage houses will come out late week and give us an idea as to how their positioned.

A common thinking is the corn report is expected to be most bullish as continued talk on harvest, into November, was disappointing. Note, the corn harvest in October was the highest rated corn on weekly crop condition reports. Beans too had talk of poorer than expected yields, but crop condition report showed the highest rated beans were harvested in October to show up on the November 9 report.

This is where the surprise could come from. When everyone is looking for a bullish report, and it comes out bearish. But, if common thinking trades fear first, we should expect commercials to further cut their short held positions and speculators buying long into the report.

After the report is priced in November 9, look for funds to take profits pulling us down. At that point we will have to determine is this a temporary monthly break or a bigger harvest end correction? Unless weather in Brazil worsens, driving beans higher and dragging the other grains along, we should expect the November 9 report high price results to hold all month, as this report represents the last of our bullish supply-side report.

Then grains trade weekly demand indicators and outside markets as funds attached grains to their trading portfolio and come in each day and determine wether to buy or sell off crude oil, dollar index, stock indices and metals in order of importance. That's all they will have to go by as grains are locked up on the farm for a long winters nap until spring uncertainties enter on planting. Long-term thinking, buy a break this week and take profits the day prior or of the November 9 crop report. Sell short off the report day high and look for the fifth consecutive monthly crop report high correction," he says.


Mike

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At 7:07am:

Overall, October's trading volume at the CME Group was up 9% from a year ago at 240 million contracts, of which 83% was traded electronically, the exchange announced Tuesday. Specifically, CME Group commodities volume averaged a record 1.1 million contracts per day, up 42 percent compared with the prior October

 

Here's some other stuff to chew on:

--ADM's 1st Quarter net revenue declined 30%, due to rising commodity prices. 

--China's Oct. soy imports seen at 4.5 ml tons, Nov. at 4.6 ml tons, Ministry says. Though some see Oct. soy imports at 5.6 ml tons.

--Russia is seen importing grain, after its export ban has failed, World Bank says.

--Japan seeks 125,667 metric tons of feed wheat.

 

Of those aforementioned items, the one that says Russia will import grains could be highly inflammatory for grain prices.

 

Mike

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At 6:55am:

Early calls: Corn up 3-5 cents, soybeans up 4-6 cents, and wheat up 7-9 cents.


 

Trackers:

Overnight grain=Trading higher.

Crude oil=Trading $0.74 per barrel higher.

Dollar=Trading lower.

Wall Street=Seen higher off of voters going to the polls for the U.S. mid-term elections. Investors also await the Fed Reserve meeting tomorrow.

World Markets=Higher.

 

Mike

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4 Replies
Veteran Contributor

Re: From the floor November 2

I seem to recall a pattern a few years back where the overnights traded high and the days lower.  Can't remember how that turned out but it seems to be happening again.  Does any one have any thought about this phenomenon?

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Veteran Contributor

Re: From the floor November 2

The USDA just totally blew the corn crop estimate all season long.  How much faith does the trade have in their numbers?  The USDA's Jan 2010 report allowed China and others to buy a lot of grain much cheaper than they should have.  Also, rationing sooner would have kept the highs lower. 

Want a shocker, saw a study that the final, final corn yield could be in the lower 140's.  Note, I believe the quality of this crop will make it 'bigger' than the yields indicate.

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Advisor

Re: From the floor November 2

In north iowa, still have a hard time getting my head around the smaller corn crop. Nearly every coop has corn piled on the ground and some of that from last year. My little coop even asked me not to deliver all my oct. corn to help save room.  To be fair we had a good crop, but not the amazing one that many had expected. almost all reports are of bigger than expected soybean crops here and in other parts of the midwest. out my back door, i guess.....

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Veteran Advisor

Re: From the floor November 2

John do you know if they filled the new bin at Britt and also made that small pile?  If so they have way more corn on hand than they have ion a while. JR

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