From the floor November 29

[marketeye]

At the close:

The March corn futures closed 1/4 of a cent higher at $5.53 1/4. The Jan. soybean contract settled 3 1/2 cents lower at $12.35. The March wheat futures ended 3 1/4 cents higher at $6.90 1/2. The Jan. soyoil futures contract finished $0.30 lower at $50.22. The Dec. soymeal futures contract settled $0.50 per short ton lower ay $338.60.

In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $1.76 per barrel higher, the dollar is higher, and the Dow Jones Industrials are down 60 points.

FWIW: While leaving the floor, one trader commented that he enjoyed reading the Successful Farming Mid-November 'Special Marketing' Issue. He said, "It looks like you are trying to tell these farmers that there is more to watch than just weather and crop progress. In fact, today is a good example of that. Look at the Dollar, today. It just wouldn't break. That is trying to tell you something," he says.

Mike

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At mid-session:

The March corn futures are 1 1/2 cents higher at $5.54 1/2. The Jan. soybean contract is 21/2 cents lower at $12.6. The Dec. wheat futures are 4 cents higher at $6.52 1/4. The Jan. soyoil futures contract is $0.09 higher at $50.34. The Dec. soymeal futures contract is $1.80 per short ton lower ay $335.00.

In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.96 per barrel higher, the dollar is higher, and the Dow Jones Industrials are down 131 points. The Dow drops due to to rising European debt concerns.

One grain analyst says, "Two-sided trade early comes on three different issues pulling and tugging at the markets. Pulling us up is a strong move higher in crude oil, up over a dollar, putting a floor under ethanol-based corn and bio-fuel based soyoil. Another issue is a 6 to 10 day weather update of generally drier conditions in South American grain fields. The negative side is a weak stock market and soaring higher dollar, capping gains and pressured us early."

Mike

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At 9:55am:

Grains turn lower, with pressure coming from the outside markets. The Dow sinks triple digits, causing a rush on the Dollar, ultimately pushing down commodities. 

Has the cat gotten your guys' tongue? Lately, it seems you have been keeping your thoughts on this market to yourselves. Care to share? Are we trading sideways until the next 'number' from the USDA in January or what? Maybe you had too much turkey, you're still full and tired from that meal?   🙂

Mike

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At the open:

The March corn futures opened ¼ of cent higher at $5.53 1/4. The Jan. soybean contract opened 1/4 of a cent higher at $12.39. The Dec. wheat futures opened 1 1/4 cents higher at $6.49 1/2. The Jan. soyoil futures contract opened $0.22 higher at $50.47. The Dec. soymeal futures opened $1.20 per short ton lower.

In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.41 per barrel higher, the dollar is higher, and the Dow Jones Industrials are down 122 points. The Dow drops due to to rising European debt concerns.

Mike

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At 8:15am:

USDA announced Monday that Mexico bought 120,000 metric tons of U.S. corn for 2010-11 delivery. It's interesting that there's talk of Russia looking to buy corn from Argentina. Will that talk turnout to be similar to China 'head-faking' about buying corn from Argentina? What say you?

Mike

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At 7:25am:

On Friday, market participants said Monday's grain trade will depend largely on South America's weather. Weather forecasts have Argentina getting light rains but remaining dry for the next 6-10 days. Brazil is seen getting much-needed rains, but temperatures are not warming to the point that the crop needs them to. So, we'll see how the market takes the news today. What are you focusing on?

Mike

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At 7am:

Early calls: Corn up 1-2 cents, soybeans 2-4 higher and wheat 3-5 higher.

Trackers:

Overnight grain markets=Trading higher.

Crude Oil=$0.67 higher.

Dollar=Higher.

Wall Street=Seen trading higher with limitations due to Ireland's financial bailout getting a mild reaction from the stock market. Meahwhile, the National Retail Federation says 212 million took part in Black Friday, compared to 195 million last year.

World  Markets=Asia/Pacific higher, Europe lower.

More in a minute,

Mike

[jrsiajdranch]

Mike glad to see you came through the turkey holiday! 

I don't know if we are being silent we are just rumminating over all the possibilities, and they are endless.

I find it interesting that we are still trading europes debt we seem to have been tading that for about 9 months or more now.  They are not going to get a handle on it.  

So I keep wondering how deep are the funds into hose different countries?  If they really start to go will that pull liquidity from the commodiies?  I just don't think so. 

The demand is real.  You have the Chinese rioting in small numbers over food prices and the Gov. trying to put a bandaid on the inflation by giving the masses more money(stimulus anybody) And while injecting more dollars they are hoping to avoid inflation!

THe Koreans are going to get more nervous and more nervousness means higher oil.  Higher oil means higher corn.  Higher corn means more inflation in the food prices.  Round and round we go.

BTW I heard more chater over cost of stuff at thanksgiving then ever before it didn't seem to matter the age, young and just starting or elderly and hoping to live to the end peacably.  One fellow who is a short time from retirement was concerned that he wouldn't be able to retire cause of the hit his 401 k has taken.  One guy who retired from the State this summer was confident he was going to keep on living the highlife.  The young in the group were rather disgusted that they had to pay for that for the rest of hs life. 

Um I know it is hard to believe but I was mostly silent.  Makes the car ride home more enjoyable when the wife ain't after me for being so opinionated!

Every relative said I must be doing great with butter over $3.  I just smiled and said you would think, wouldn't you. 

Well did you stay in chi town or make the treck back to the southern hills for turkey day. JR

[marketeye]

It was a Chicago turkey day for us, not bad. Thanks for the comments. Your approach on being opinionated is interesting, I'll take note of that for my future in-law visits. I'm going to speak with a few traders about what they think is really driving this market. I'll let you know what they say.

Mike

[Mizzou_Tiger]

IMO is moving the market....we are in a funk right now....personally I think the market is setting us up for a real big problem this summer....its not doing its job right now and that is two things....starting to ration demand and buying acres....its not doing either, sales are above last year to date and shipments are basically equal to or above last year to date....cotton is trying real hard to buy acres, wheat has already done it and is its own developing story that will get its own attention by March, soya needs a whole lot of acres in 2011 and even more if S.A. keeps getting drier, and corn will need a big bump in acres to keep pace and even more if world feed stocks decrease and the reduction in S.A. is real....

Apparently market thinks its too early to trade acres, and the supply is masked by all the other world BS going on right now with EU, Korea, and China policy.......Whats going to happen if the S.A. crop comes in no more than average, maybe less, about the same time the U.S. tries to plant a lot more acres of everything and figures out we can't do it that quick, and then the world wakes up hungry after China has bought all the soya and the corn and wheat piles are about gone because of world wide wheat issues.....

The fact that the grains have held steady during all of this including an increasing dollar tells me no one wants to be short this market and when the keg goes boom its for real.......Look at oil and gold, dollar is up and they are positive......

[llakmf]

Marketeye, Right now I am listing to Marys Lulaby sang by Kings Choir, After this summer, most  of us need a rest,  I would say after the first of the year maybe a little sooner things will start to heat up. It seems our survial depends on our wits. Saying all that do I detect a start of a new bull market on the charts. Watch the lunatic from North Korea.

[Arb]

Mike

Thanks again for some useful tidbits from 'the floor'. Its this stuff that helps us navigate these uncertain times.

Andy

[marketeye]

Thanks Arb. I know these markets are very hard to understand, follow, and even harder to figure out. And really, there's little talk from floor traders or analysts on the direction of these prices. So, it's not only farmers that are quiet right now. It's people even closer to these trades that seem to be quietly wondering which direction things head. It feels like when a basketball slowly goes around and around on the rim of a basketball hoop. The crowd and the players just sit and wait, to see if the ball is going to go in or fall out of the basket.

Mike