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Senior Contributor

From the floor October 14

At the close:

The Dec corn futures closed 2 cents lower at $5.67 1/4. The Nov. soybean contract settled 12 cents higher at $11.88 1/2. The Dec. wheat futures settled 2 cents lower at $7.00 3/4.  The Dec. soymeal futures contract ended $2.70 higher at $331.70 per short ton. The Dec. soyoil futures contract closed $0.44 higher at $48.02.

 

In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.58 per barrel lower, the dollar is higher, and the Dow Jones Industrials are down 59 points.

 

Mike

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At mid-session:

The Dec corn futures are 1 3/4 cents higher at $5.70 1/4. The Nov. soybean contract is 6 1/2 cents higher at $11.83. The Dec. wheat futures are 1 3/4 cents lower at $7.01.  The Dec. soymeal futures contract is $1.20 higher at $330.20 per short ton. The Dec. soyoil futures contract is $0.10 higher at $47.68.

 

In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.17 per barrel lower, the dollar is higher, and the Dow Jones Industrials are down 31 points.

 

Mike

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At the open:

The Dec corn futures are 3/4 of a cent higher at $5.69 1/4. The Nov. soybean contract opened 4 3/4 cents higher at $11.81 3/4. The Dec. wheat futures opened 3 1/2 cents lower at $6.99 1/4.  The Dec. soymeal futures contract opened $1.80 higher at $330.90 per short ton. The Dec. soyoil futures contract opened $0.06 lower at $47.52.

 

In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.27 per barrel higher, the dollar is higher, and the Dow Jones Industrials are up 5 points.

 

Mike

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At 8:36am:

USDA announced Thursday that China bought 280,000 metric tons of U.S. soybeans for 2010-11.

 

Mike

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t 7:25am:

News Roundup:

--Japan bought 100,339 metric tons of food wheat for December delivery.

--S. Korea's NOFI bought 55,000 metric tons of corn from Louis Dreyfus.

--Taiwan seeks 60,000 metric tons of corn for October.

--Gold hits a new high of $1,4000 per troy ounce.

--Libya's leader says oil could reach $100 per barrel in 2011.

--Australia's wheat output is up 450,000 tons vs. a year ago. The new crop still struggles in western states.

--Canada's Strategie ups 2010-11n wheat outlook and 2011-12 corn plantings.


Mike

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At 7am:

Early calls: Corn up 3-5 cents, soybeans up 10-12 cents, and wheat up 3-5 cents.

 

 

Trackers:

Overnight grain=Trading higher.

Crude oil=Trading $0.63 per barrel higher.

Dollar=Trading dollar.

Wall Street=Seen trading higher with more talk of Fed quantitive easing. Also, the dollar is weakening and investors are shifting money to equities, as the Fed is expected to print more money as a stimulus measure. Singapore's Monetary Authority announced Thursday it will tighen that country's s monetary policy, putting even more pressure on the dollar. Weekly jobless claims will be reported today. Also, third quarter earnings reports continue.

 

Mike

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5 Replies
Veteran Contributor

Re: From the floor October 14

Thanks for all your updates.  When do we start trading a drought?  Can't imagine how dry it must be in many places across the US.  After a summer of floods, went to hot and low humidity's...forgot how fast one can want rain. 

I really want to start some grain sales here.  I need to lock in a good price to make up for my much below average yields.  Here are the thoughts I have...could lose the blenders credit...Brazil has to raise a great crop...what is the Russian wheat plantings looking like...gosh it is getting dry here....the economy is not ready to handle foreclosure gate....the dollar will keep crashing unless we raise interest rates..It's not just about the US demand anymore.  

I know of several livestock producers(ie, big hog producers), that have their feed costs locked in for the next 12 months.  Frankly, farming has changed big time in the last three years, marketing is the greatest source of revenue with these price swings.  I think scale up marketing is a joke., it just guarantees your marketing is 'average' at best.  Though the last laugh may be on me if I don't take some 'cookies' soon.

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Veteran Contributor

Re: From the floor October 14

 

how many have do worse then average.  If marketing is the greatest source of revenue why farm just trade.  This thing could go a million different ways and unfortunalty I have no idea which on it will be.  If the high is today and I have nothing sold I've missed one heck of an opportunity.  If I take this opportunity and sell everything and a price spike like 08 happens I didn't get enough.  If that price spike creates demand destruction I better get in while the getting is good and I need to sell high prices to get me threw the resulting bad times.  So even though its not that fun I am going to stick with scale up marketing and probably scale down marketing at some point.  If there is some one that has beat the market average for a period of more then 10 years I would like to know I would hire them in a second, but so far I have had nobady that has been able to prove they can. 

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Veteran Contributor

Re: From the floor October 14

"If marketing is the greatest source of revenue why farm just trade."

 

Ag, I never trade.  Only make cash sales.  The one positive about looking at my horrible crops all summer is it made me close the bin door tight early.   Both bean and corn yields off big time in this part of Ia.  I don't trust any marketing adviser, I can make those mistakes on my own.  Farm Bureau's advisor seems to be doing pretty well right now, they are also holding 09 grain and just started 10 sales. 

I can still get less than others that have sold earlier....can't count the money until you leave the table.

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Veteran Advisor

Re: From the floor October 14

I always work on the assumption that an advisor on marketing would not need to sell their info IF they were right most of the time. If they are right most times then all they have to do is trade to make a living instead of having to sell subscriptions to their advice service.

That said I do subscribe to a service, one that says they do not have all the answers but that trys to sell into rallies and stay away from selling into slumps. They never try to hit a 'home run' by selling all at one time but spread sales out so they get lots of 'base hits' and follow through to get enough runs to score.

They do not do too bad and they keep me aware of markets so I do not forget to sell when opportunities present themselves.

Right now prices are in profitable territory so what could be wrong in selling for a profit? Even IF there is more profit later, there could be less, much less.

I, like jec22, do not trade just sell cash. Or contracts through elevator including basis when it appears to be good.

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Senior Contributor

Re: From the floor October 14

I'll make comments on two items in your list.


The blenders credit won't end IMO.


The Russian and Ukranian crop's big hurdle is first the winter, and then the summer. They count on losing 10% to winter kill as a normal part of farming. Part of Ukraine is low rainfall area and drought is common. Siberia is spring wheat country because the winter is too tough. So it plays roulette on the length of the season. Much like Canada  (which by the way is having uncharacteristacally great weather for this time of year and most of the crop is going to get harvested even if the quality is not good). These issues are why the FSU will never be a consistent exporter.

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