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Senior Contributor

From the floor October 28

At the close:

The Dec corn futures settled 1 3/4 cents higher at $5.79. The Nov. soybean contract ended 1 1/4 cents higher at $12.25. The Dec. wheat futures closed 15 1/2 cents higher at $7.18 1/4.  The Dec. soymeal futures contract closed $0.04 higher at $336.30 per short ton. The Dec. soyoil futures contract is $0.10 higher at $49.70.

 

In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.23 per barrel higher, the dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are down 25 points.

 

Mike

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At 12-Noon:

Corn still up 3, soybeans up 7, and wheat up 14.

 

Now for something completely different. I received a message from a trader this morning that reads: "A report that came out today metioned 2011 might be a very slow year. Every recession is different but little to no growth is normal for 3-5 years."

 

Do you think that relates to commodities? Just yesterday, I had a well respected equities trader tell me, on the financial trading floor at the CME Group, that he sees continued high farm prices into next year. He said to me, as I met him for the first time, "You are a farm reporter? You've been busy then. I don't see things slowing down for you either, mainly due to global demand."

 

Mike

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.At mid-session:

The Dec corn futures are 4 cents higher at $5.81 1/4. The Nov. soybean contract is 8 cents higher at $12.31 3/4. The Dec. wheat futures are 13 1/4 cents higher at $7.16.  The Dec. soymeal futures contract is $3.40 higher at $339.30 per short ton. The Dec. soyoil futures contract is $0.15 higher at $49.75.

 

In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.02 per barrel lower, the dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are down 54 points.


One analyst says, "Pretty simple today it's a demand driven day with the export sales
report showing 2.025 million metric tons of beans sold with China in for
1.369 m.m.t. of the total. China continues to overbook U.S. beans as
insurance against dry planting conditions in Brazil. Additionaly, wheat is
posting sharp gains again as shorts cover and specs buy. Buying is occurring after Monday's
crop condition report put wheat at 47% in good to excellent condition,
the lowest rating since 1991. The market is sensitive after the world's
number three exporter, Russia's drought had them suspend exports. Now,
number one exporter, the U.S., is off to a bad start and creating some
concern in the market."

 

Mike

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At the open:

The Dec corn futures are 6 3/4 cents higher at $5.84. The Nov. soybean contract opened 9 1/4 cents higher at $12.33 3/4. The Dec. wheat futures opened 18 cents higher at $7.20 1/2.  The Dec. soymeal futures contract opened $3.70 higher at $339.60 per short ton. The Dec. soyoil futures contract opened $0.22 higher at $49.83.

 

In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.27 per barrel higher, the dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are down 23 points.

 

Mike

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At 8:45am:

On top of a bullish weekly export sales report, the USDA announced Thursday that an 'unknown' bought 305,000 metric tons of U.S. soybeans for 2010-11 delivery.

 

Mike

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At 7:30am:

USDA released bullish corn and soybean export sales figures this morning.

 

Corn=500,000 metric tons, the trade expected 300 to 500,000.

Soybeans=2.03 million metric tons, the trade expected 1,000,000 to 1,800,000.

Wheat=604,400 metric tons, while the trade expected 400 to 700,000

Soymeal=153,900, while the trade guessed 150, to 225,000.

Soyoil=5,500 metric tons.

 

Mike

--------

At 7am:

 

Weekly Export Sales Report will be released at 7:30am CST, this morning. Here are the trade expectations: Corn at 300 to 500,000 Metric Tons (MT), soybeans at 1,000,000 to 1,800,000 MT, soybean meal at 150, to 225,000 MT, and wheat at 400 to 700,000 MT.


Mike

------------

At 6:45am:

Early calls: Corn up 3-5 cents, soybeans up 8-10 cents, and wheat up 8-10 cents.

 

 

Trackers:

Overnight grain=Trading higher.

Crude oil=Trading $0.04 per barrel higher.

Dollar=Trading lower.

Wall Street=Seen higher as the dollar eases and investors await more corporate earnings and housing data this morning.

World Markets=Higher.

 

Mike

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11 Replies
Senior Contributor

Re: From the floor October 28

Mike,

I've heard local analysts explaining various recent price actions as positioning before the Nov report.  Seems a little early to me.  But, I'm a cynic about analysts explanations in general.  Are you getting any general sense from pit members of of the forces behind recent market moves?  It sounds like a lot of it is focused on the dollar and the Chinese, with not much depth beyond that.

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Contributor

Re: From the floor October 28

morning mike   you might say the world is getting    HUNGRY   !!

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SWINbinder
Senior Reader

Re: From the floor October 28

Hey Mike,

I just wanted to say thanks for all the work you do! It could be a crazy day the way it's sounding. 

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Senior Contributor

Re: From the floor October 28

According to my math, we need sales to average 1.1 million metric tons of corn on a weekly basis.  We do less than half of that and it is deemed bullish?  I realize it's quite a bit better than last week, but last week's sales were the worst in over six years.  The last eight weeks of export sales have been pathetic at best.  Then, the shipment pace is behind last year.  I have a feeling the January report will see some major changes.

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Senior Contributor

Re: From the floor October 28

The Nov. 9 report is expected to be bullish. So, traders say they don't want to be short. It's a lot about the dollar, but that is not all. Traders are keeping a close eye on the Fed's QE2 plan that could be released next week. Guess what else is next week, the mid-term elections. Throw in another Crop Progress report next week, and an export sales report. All of those will be followed closely by the Nov. 9 report. Not to mention the ever-changing planting weather for the South Americans.

 

So, a lot of shoes are expected to drop in the next seven days. Some want to stand steadily by and avoid getting hit by any of those shoes. Some want to aggressively position themselves ahead of all the shoes. And yet others are buying on the dips and planning on selling if those aforementioned reports are bullish. I'm curious Jim, will we know or how will we know if the mid-term elections are bullish or bearish grains?

 

Sorry for the delayed response,

 

Mike

 

 

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Senior Contributor

Re: From the floor October 28

SWINbinder,

 

Well thank you for thanking me and now it's my turn to thank you, so thank you. Seriously, I do appreciate your kind words. Let me know what else I can do. Have you or anyone else thought about gathering for a Marketing meet-up this winter? Let me know or maybe others will chime in about one.

 

Thanks,

 

Mike

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SWINbinder
Senior Reader

Re: From the floor October 28

I was at the meeting we had in Chicago. I really enjoyed walking on the CBOT floor. End of the day "rap up" we had was great also.:-)         I would go again if it was put together.  Just let me know when. Thanks!!!!

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Frequent Contributor

Re: From the floor October 28

Wonder what will happen to the ethanol blender credit and import tariff if the Republicans take over the House?  Will they let it expire?  My thought is they would since it is something that the current administration is in favor of.  Not sure exactly how that would impact the ethanol industry but I wouldn't think in a good way.

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Senior Contributor

Re: From the floor October 28

Words and 'principles' mean nothing at election time. History does.

 

Tell me the last time Republicans acted to strip farm programs or blocked the basic form of ag subsidies we have today?

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