After the close:
Here's at least one analyst's estimates for this Friday's report:
CORN PRODUCTION = 13.010
CORN YIELD = 162.1
SOYBEAN PRODUCTION= 3.450 yield= 44.6
2010-11 U.S. CARRYOVER
CORN =1.050
SOYBEANS= 335
WHEAT= 898
2010-11 WORLD CARRYOVER
CORN =132.00
SOYBEANS= 63.00
WHEAT=175.00
What do you think the government will say Friday? Let's hear you...
Mike
----------------
At the close:
The Dec corn futures settled 19 1/2 cents higher at $4.91. The Nov. soybean contract settled 17 3/4 cents higher at $10.71 1/4. The Dec. wheat futures closed 16 1/4 cents higher at $6.63 1/2. The Dec. soyoil futures settled 37 points higher at $43.82. The Dec. soymeal futures contract closed $0.70 higher at $299.30 per short ton.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $1.36 per barrel higher, the dollar is sharply lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are up 189 points.
Mike
--------
At 12-Noon;
So, the grains are moving today partially from Japan's adjustment of its yen. A foreign currency trader shared with me his thoughts on this move.
In his own words: "They've tried 'intervening with their currency so many times and have failed
miserably!! They've now dropped interest rates to -.01%; they keep
forgetting that they are the carry trade currency (that's where the big
money & governments essentially go to borrow money)... by the end of the
year the Japanese Yen will be back to the upside (to the levels where it was
before the 1st intervention - when the grain markets started going haywire)."
Mike
-------
At mid-session:
The Dec corn futures are 17 cents higher at $4.88 1/2. The Nov. soybean contract is 16 1/2 cents higher at $10.70 1/2. The Dec. wheat futures are 17 1/4 cents higher at $6.64 1/2. The Dec. soyoil futures are 43 points higher at $43.88. The Dec. soymeal futures contract is $5.80 higher at $298.00 per short ton.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $1.17 per barrel higher, the dollar is sharply lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are up 162 points.
The outside markets lead the way for everything to be sharply higher this morning, traders say.
One analyst sums up the rally like this, "Today is a continuation of Monday's bullish action. "Traders with short positions and big profits, on last week's break in prices, are buying back those positions as new speculative longs enter off the early week lows on two issues. One, they expect corn yields and production to come in lower on Friday's USDA Crop Production Report. The lower expected yields are based upon the southern Delta's and eastern Corn Belt September harvests that recorded the lowest crop ratings."
He adds, "In September, record Chinese soybean purchases sets us up to see the report show an increase in bean export projections, possibly leading to lower ending stocks. It's all about the fear of the next report and the fear is it could be bullish. This will be the third consecutive month a rally occurs off of a government report."
Mike
---------
At the open:
The Dec corn futures are 6 3/4 cents higher at $4.78 1/4. The Nov. soybean contract opened 8 1/2 cents higher at $10.62 1/2. The Dec. wheat futures opened 6 3/4 cents higher at $6.54. The Dec. soyoil futures opened 27 points higher at $43.72. The Dec. soymeal futures contract opened $3.00 higher at $295.30 per short ton.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.69 per barrel higher, the dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are up 122 points.
Japan's altering of its yen has rocketed the markets higher. It's tumbling the dollar, which is bullish for the grains.
Mike
----------
At 8am:
USDA announced Tuesday that 110,497 metric tons of U.S. soybeans were sold to China for 2010-11 delivery.
Mike
--------
At 7:45am:
South Korea's Feed Association passed on a 220,000 metric ton corn tender. Cargill did sell a South Korea firm 165,000 metric tons of corn that was announced today.
FWIW: An economist says agriculture is China's achilles heel. He says China will need to keep importing corn and soybeans for feed and food. He also says Brazil is best positioned to meet China's demand.
Otherwise, the news is kind of slow. There must be a ton of harvesting going on right now, with most of you remaining silent on this discussion post. OR, you're holding your breath waiting for this pullback to stop. Looks like that might happen a little today.
Monday's crop progress report indicated corn harvest at 37% complete and soybean harvest at 37% complete. The Illinois corn harvest is at a record 74% done. I know of many central Illinois producers that have finished harvest earlier than ever in their farming careers. Is that the case with you? I'd be inerested to hear.
Mike
---------
At 6:45am:
Early calls: Corn up 3-5 cents, soybeans up 3-5 cents, and wheat up 2-4 cents.
Trackers:
Overnight grain=Trading higher.
Crude oil=Trading $0.36 per barrel higher.
Dollar=Trading lower.
Wall Street= Seen opening higher with Japan lowering its interest rate policy.
World Markets=Higher.
More in a minute
Mike,
