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marketeye
Senior Contributor

From the floor September 13

At the close:

The Dec corn futures settled 5 1/4 cents higher at $4.83 1/2. The Nov. soybean contract closed 3 1/2 cents higher at $10.34 1/2. The Dec. wheat futures closed 8 1/4 cents higher at $7.45.  The Dec. soyoil futures settled 5 points higher at $41.81. The Dec. soymeal futures settled $0.20 lower at $293.50 per short ton.

 

In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.57 per barrel higher, the dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are up 55 points.

 

Mike

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At 12:30pm:

One analyst says, A surge in values early has found some farm selling near the highs.  I did a bit, anyway.  Yield reports still coming in mixed to bad supporting futures.  I also hear that corn gulf basis is up hard, but I don’t know why.  Overall a pretty slow start to the week and the market not acting super after the initial rally.  The market acts tired so some more selling could develop.  Big demand for corn at the Gulf should keep corn supported against wheat and beans which seem quiet.  I have heard mixed yields over the weekend but some other guys here that I talk to are still talking about disappointing yields for corn.  Not hearing many bean yields yet."


Mike

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At mid-session:

The Dec corn futures are 6 cents higher at $4.84 1/4. The Nov. soybean contract is 2 cents higher at $10.33. The Dec. wheat futures are 8 3/4 cents higher at $7.45 1/2.  The Dec. soyoil futures are 20 points higher at $41.96. The Dec. soymeal futures are $1.00 lower at $292.70 per short ton.

 

In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.74 per barrel higher, the dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are up 74 points.


All stocks and commodities have backed off from their earlier highs.


Mike

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At the open:

At the open, the Dec corn futures are 5 1/4 cents higher at $4.83. The Nov. soybean contract opened 7 cents higher at $10.38. The Dec. wheat futures opened 16 1/2 cents higher at $7.53 1/2.  The Dec. soyoil futures opened 36 points higher at $41.72. The Dec. soymeal futures opened $1.10 higher at $294.80 per short ton.

 

In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $1.41 per barrel higher, the dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are up 101 points.

 

Mike

-----------.

 

At 8am:

Well, I've scoured the news this morning. Here's what I take from it. The 'Basel lll' meeting in Switzerland produced tighter regulations for banks. Some countries are concernend the U.S. won't implement the measures. In all, the committee now takes the new outline to a November global meeting called G-20 (not to be mixed up with WD-40) in South Korea. We've seen it before where these global meetings just keep skipping around the world and these measures get meetinged out, or just fade away. We'll see.

 

Also, Rabobank is buying into India's commodity exchange. That seems a bit interesting.

 

Some are saying this wheat price jump has no correlation to the food crisis of 2008, when commodity prices spiked. Why? U.S. is sitting on a large stockpile of wheat.

 

No talk of this afternoon's Crop Progress Report. The weather has been much more pleasant this past week. Maybe a higher grade coming.

 

It will be interesting to see how the markets trade Friday's report. Or, if it continues to trade Friday's report. With so much pressure on demand now, you would think the market needs to be fed one of those big purchases from China or Egypt or somebody, in order for prices to run. It's all about demand, demand, demand. Are you drinking your glass of 'demand' yet this morning?

 

Mike

--------

 

 

At 6:55am:

Early calls: Corn 1-2 cents higher, soybeans up 3-5 cents wheat up 4-6 cents.


Trackers:

Overnight grain=Trading higher.

Crude oil=Trading $0.71 per barrel higher.

Dollar=Trading lower.

Wall Street= Seen opening higher as China releases positive factory data for August. Also, global regulators, at the Basel Committee meeting, announced banks will have to triple their capital to avoid a future banking crisis. However, lenders will get longer than they thought to build the capital.

World Markets=Higher.

 

More in a minute,

 

Mike

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6 Replies
zman343
Frequent Contributor

Re: From the floor September 13

Looks like money managers hit the "Risk On" button today on their HFT machines.  Corn seems to be the leader of this thing now.  Funds are record long, Commericals record short.  Gotta love it.

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giolucas
Frequent Contributor

Re: From the floor September 13

Love the Ups and Downs. 

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jec22
Veteran Contributor

Re: From the floor September 13

I don't see commericals being record short a good thing.  If they still have to cover their needs we are going to switch to rationing mode sooner.  The 2011 crop is so under the gun, it has to produce.  I really thought after 2008 the enduser would be well covered this time.  I will say it again, the internet is a game changer.  In 1993 it was Nov. before the markets reacted after the USDA finally printed the damage.  Iowa is at least 10 bushels to high in the Sept report on corn.  Early beans yields still in the low 40's...which for this area is 25-30 bushels under last year,  but those have some SDS damage.

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Palouser
Senior Contributor

Re: From the floor September 13

The jump in price in wheat this year correlates with 2008, just a matter of degree, and yes, the US has big stocks too cover the situation. They are the same in that the market did not see it coming. However, the 2007-8 situation developed over time (I warned for several years) while the market remained completely oblivious. The Russian situation occurred within one season in a year with plenty of supply. Can you imagine what might have happened if it had happened in 2007 - on top of the general over confidence regarding the trends??

 

I do think the markets were sensitized from the last situation, though the markets were still behind the curve on the Russian drought.

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Palouser
Senior Contributor

Russian numbers still falling?

Check it out.

 

http://www.agriculture.com/markets/analysis/wheat/russia-grain-harvest-estimates-keep_11-ar8394

 

Not surprising, but again, if wheat and grain numbers are still falling then forage must be decimated, leaving the developing meat sector in a bad spot. I don't know exactly where the limits are but sizable Russian imports must be  a seriously considered.

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hardnox604008
Veteran Advisor

Re: From the floor September 13

Hi zman,

 

You got that right.

 

I hat this market- in the broadeer sense- just can't help but feel like it's a huge accident waiting to happen.

 

But who knows? I recall watching the stock market chop sideways to higher into the 2000 and 2007 tops and it felt like an eternity. As they say, longer than you can remain solvent.

 

And of course in '07-'08 the commodity bubble just kept blowing all the way until the end of the world popped it.

 

I don't know anything but have a feeling that those who think they do are fooling themselves.

 

Best, h

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