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Senior Contributor

From the floor September 15

At the close:

The Dec corn futures settled 1/4 of a cent higher at $4.95 1/4. The Nov. soybean contract ended 7 cents higher at $10.42 1/2. The Dec. wheat futures settled 9 1/4 cents lower at $7.26 3/4.  The Dec. soyoil futures closed 30 points higher at $42.01. The Dec. soymeal futures ended $1.20 higher at $297.70 per short ton.

 

In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.90 per barrel lower, the dollar is higher, and the Dow Jones Industrials are up 18 points.

 

It's interesting to note that one analyst wishes all of these yield reports would include test weight and moisture levels. He says those two unknown factors will be the difference in this year's final yield readings. He agrees the market should be trading in a lower yield. But, the talk of USDA lowering their final corn yield to the mid 150's is ridiculous, he says.

 

Mike

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At 12-Noon:

Egypt buys 295,000 tons of wheat, only 55,000 metric tons of it was from the U.S. That bums out the market, wheat falls.


Mike

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At mid-session:

The Dec corn futures are 1 1/2 cents lower at $4.93 1/2. The Nov. soybean contract is 4 cents higher at $10.39 1/2. The Dec. wheat futures are 3 3/4 cents lower at $7.32 1/4.  The Dec. soyoil futures are 7 points higher at $41.78. The Dec. soymeal futures are $0.20 lower at $296.30 per short ton.

 

In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $1.06 per barrel lower, the dollar is higher, and the Dow Jones Industrials are up 32 points.

 

One analyst says, "No fresh news on the harvest front. So, we're seeing light profit-taking in corn and wheat, with beans marginally higher off news this morning of a sizable soy oil sale. There's a lot of talk about the flooding in India and palm oil problems. This is leading to a surge in soy oil sales."

 

Mike

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At the open:

The Dec corn futures are 1/4 of a cent higher at $4.95. The Nov. soybean contract opened 5 cents higher at $10.40 1/2. The Dec. wheat futures opened 5 cents higher at $7.41.  The Dec. soyoil futures opened 3 points lower at $41.68. The Dec. soymeal futures opened $0.20 lower at $296.30 per short ton.

 

In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $1.83 per barrel lower, the dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are up 23 points.

 

Mike

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At 8:25am:

USDA says Algeria bought 21,000 metric tons of U.S. soyoil Wednesday.

 

Mike

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At 7:30am:

I took a pickup ride around the newsroom, a minute ago. Here is what I found. South Korea has had a 275,000 metric ton shipment of wheat delayed. So, they are buying 10 cargoes or 550,000 metric tons of corn for November delivery. The corn is expected to come out of central Europe or the U.S.

Also, S. Korea is expected to import 600,000 metric tons of corn in December.

Egypt is looking for 60,000 metric tons of wheat for Nov. delivery.

 

On a side note, I received an email from a guy that is considered one of Brazil's 'most modeled' farmers. I mention that only because it establishes credibility for those that don't know him. Anyway, he says pray for rain, it's very very dry in Ponta Grossa, located in Parana state, southern Brazil.

 

Believe me, while the market has one hairy-eye on the U.S. yields, the other eye is squarely focused on Brazil's upcoming planting season.

 

MIke

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At 7am:

 


Early calls: Corn 2-4 cents higher, soybeans up 3-5 cents wheat up 2-4 cents.


Trackers:

Overnight grain=Trading higher.

Crude oil=Trading $1.17 per barrel lower.

Dollar=Trading higher.

Wall Street= Seen opening lower as investors await U.S. August manufacturing datat. Also, Japan has stepped in the currency market to curb its yen.

World Markets=Mixed with Asia/Pacific higher but Europe stocks lower.

 

More in a minute,

 

Mike

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17 Replies
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Senior Contributor

Re: From the floor September 15

Heard on the radio Yesterday, Sue Martin, Ag Investments grain analysist from Webster City, Ia, said her target in dec corn was $5.75/bu, and if it should hit that, then the next target she had was $8.25/bu. She has been very bullish corn for several months and was calling it's future price in the "wooden nickels" a month ago.

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Senior Contributor

Re: From the floor September 15

Years ago, Sue stuck her head out there first suggesting that beans would go to the teens. She took a lot of heat for that. But, guess what, it happened. I'm not saying she's right this time. I just wouldn't count her out.

 

Mike

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Veteran Contributor

Re: From the floor September 15

Seen her in FEB. said you should be selling a couple years out. Glad I never listen then.I guess you can make predictions.

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Frequent Contributor

Re: From the floor September 15

Bank of Japan intervenes to cool currency.  This could be a big boost to the U.S. dollar longer term and pressure commodities.  The spec length in corn is worrisome and technicals are extremely overbought.  I want to sell Dec @ $5 but have a feeling so does everyone else.  $4.95 is close enough.

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Frequent Contributor

Re: From the floor September 15

A wooden nickel is what I'd consider her advise worth.

 

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Senior Contributor

Re: From the floor September 15

Al Kluis, Kluis Commodities, tells his customers this morning, a top may be near. He says to watch the corn market's close. If it closes below its open, that could signal that a top is near. Also, he wonders if Thursday's export sales report will be aggressive enough to keep prices going higher.

 

Mike

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Veteran Contributor

Re: From the floor September 15

Well, Sue was ahead of all the rest on this move,  I think she tends to see the change in trend ahead of many.  No one is good at the day to day stuff.  Personally, don't use advisors.  There is a saying that bulls make money, bears make money, and pigs get slaughtered.  I think the truth lies much more closer to' the guys than don't need money make money'.  Forced sales are often poor sales.  Because who is going to be holding for even 6 dollar corn--only those that don't need the money. The worst advisor is a banker.

For many, the only reason they are still bearish, is they haven't started combining yet.  There aren't enough areas left to cover a 162 national yield.  Soon we start trading 2011 weather.  As you reported, the trade is already concerned with SA weather.    If gold is worth 1270, and a few years ago it was worth 350,  is $7 corn overpriced?   You can say cut ethanol production, but I read a comment that DDG's are so important today, that ethanol could be considered a 'by-product'.  So cutting ethanol is not the simple answer so many think.  Ethanol is close to becoming a very viable, self sustaining industry.  People tend to forget that using corn for ethanol is also using corn for feed.  It was interesting to read the link here the other day that we are exporting ethanol to the Middle East.

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Senior Contributor

Re: From the floor September 15

I`m done paying and listening to advisors. A dartboard will make you waaay more money. If there`s a good advisor out there I probably couldn`t afford his or her fees.  

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Senior Contributor

Re: From the floor September 15

Agree with you Jec the banker is the worst guy to listen to, but, sometimes you have to.

And I read that about the increased demand for DDG's overseas too, and have a question. Could the 3rd world countries be using a portion of the DDG's in their human food consumption? I am not a nutritionist, nor hygenist, but If I was broke and hungry and had a choice of a bag of pure corn meal from the USA I couldn't afford, or cheap open bucket of DDG's off the oceanliner , I know which I would try. If it is cooked out, should kill the bacteria. Just don't know, but would be interested if that is part of the new market for the DDG's in poor contries.

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