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marketeye
Veteran Advisor

From the floor September 2

At the close:

The Dec. corn futures settled 21 1/2 cents higher at $7.60. The Nov. soybean contract closed 11 1/4 cents higher at $14.45 3/4. The Dec. wheat futures ended 14 1/2 cents higher at $7.75 1/2. The Dec. soymeal futures settled $1.50 per short ton higher at $385.00. The Dec. soyoil futures settled $0.03 higher at $58.26.

 

In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $2.35 per barrel lower, the dollar is higher and the Dow Jones Industrials are down 266 points.

 

Mike

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At mid-session:

The Dec. corn futures are trading 22 cents higher at $7.60 1/2. The Nov. soybean contract is trading 14 1/2 cents higher at $14.49. The Dec. wheat futures are trading 14 3/4 cents higher at $7.75 3/4. The Dec. soymeal futures are trading $3.30 per short ton lower at $386.80. The Dec. soyoil futures are trading $0.37 higher at $58.60.

 

In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $1.83 per barrel lower, the dollar is higher and the Dow Jones Industrials are down 187 points.

 

One analyst says, "I think the leader today is corn.  The only things I am hearing are the same things everyone else has heard, namely the FC Stone estimates.  I just got a call to see if I had heard anything about Lanworth estimates, but I have not.  They are likely to be bullish, though.  But demand news is quiet and no one expects that to change.  Weather is better for beans with these rains up in So. Minn and Iowa this morning and the rains moving east.  Cooler behind which is favorable too.  So, I am a little surprised we are rallying quite this much.  I am not chasing it higher.  I would rather sell the rally I guess.  We will see."

 

Mike

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At the open:

The Dec. corn futures opened 3 cents higher at $7.41 1/2. The Nov. soybean contract opened 2 cents higher at $14.36 1/2. The Dec. wheat futures opened 4 1/2 cents higher at $7.65 1/2. The Dec. soymeal futures opened $1.60 per short ton lower at $381.80. The Dec. soyoil futures opened $0.24 higher at $58.47.

 

In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $2.73 per barrel higher, the dollar is higher and the Dow Jones Industrials are down 222 points.

 

Mike

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At 8:15am:
Early calls: Corn up 5-7 cents, soybeans up 7-9 cents and wheat up 7-9 cents.

 

Trackers:
Overnight grain, soybean markets=Traded higher.
Crude Oil=$0.96 lower.
Dollar=Higher.
Wall Street=Seen trading lower as traders expect a weak August Jobs Report due to be released today. 

World Markets=Lower.

 

 
More in a minute,
 
Mike

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18 Replies
Mizzou_Tiger
Senior Advisor

MY MY..........

"Weather is better for beans with these rains up in So. Minn and Iowa this morning and the rains moving east.  Cooler behind which is favorable too.  So, I am a little surprised we are rallying quite this much."

 

This is a direct quote from your notes marketeye................so I got a question, when do these traders think the growing season ends??????????  Its September 2nd............Just like I said two weeks ago.............Southern Minnesota and Iowa soybeans will be or already are turning as of today and by Monday will start to at a drastic rate...............RAIN AND COOLER WEATHER WILL BE COME A NEGATIVE AS IT RELATES TO HARVEST QUALITY............REAL QUICK.............I REPEAT, THE SOYA CROP IS BAKED, ITS DONE, IF IT DOSEN'T HAVE A BEAN IN IT NOW ITS TOAST............

 

Maybe there should be an entrance exam before you are allowed to trade or talk about grain commodities.............the total lack of knowledge about the production side is sickening...........

 

Corn is coming off the combine in the mid to high teens moisture as far north as the US136 corridor..............thats not a good thing this early...........and in about 1 week there will be a tremendous amount of combines rolling farther north...........

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jec22
Veteran Advisor

Re: MY MY..........

MiZZou,

 

Go enjoy the holiday weekend.  There will be plenty of drama in the months ahead.  Patience.  Remember, corn is only 13 cents a lb., even cheaper when priced in gold.

 

The cycle is like this.  They back off ethanol, gasoline goes up, corn goes down, so then they make more ethanol because corn is cheap...the cycle continues.  The only think that breaks the corn market for good, is if the demand for crude ends or the specs drive it down to 30 bucks again. 

 

The best thing to happen would be that Texas get some great rains from the tropical depression in the next few days.  Now that would be something to get excited about, those guys need a break.  And far more important that the markets.

 

 

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ag678
Veteran Contributor

Re: MY MY..........

This is a direct quote from MT.........Maybe there should be an entrance exam before you are allowed to trade or talk about grain commodities.............the total lack of knowledge about the production side is sickening...........

 

Really,

 

Your total lack of humility is sickening.  I can't speak for S Minn and Northern Iowa, but in Nebraska there are still pivots running pretty hard on beans and still a few running on corn.  I think as smart as you are you should just quit whatever you are doing today move to Chicago and make money off of all the suckers that didn't pass your entrance exam.

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marketeye
Veteran Advisor

Re: From the floor September 2

More crop estimates. On Friday, PFGBest.com released new estimates, ahead of September's USDA Report.

 

U.S. Ending Stocks Estimates    
            2012                
Corn =660                           
Soybeans=140                        
Wheat = 665                          

World Reserves
                    
               2012               
Corn = 113.95                             
Soybeans= 60.50                           
Wheat = 188.50                            


                Production  Estimates
CORN = 12.600                    
Corn Yield= 151.5                   
Soybeans = 3.010                    
Soybean Yield= 40.9    

 

What do you think? It's the first corn yield number over 150 that I've seen.

 

Mike

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Mike M2692830
Senior Contributor

Re: MY MY..........

MT, you got to lighten up a bit. I have been agreeing with you all season but lay off the guy that gives all of us an inside look at the trade. You are both right about the beans in our NC Iowa area. Early beans are turning, later beans will benefit from around 1 inch of rain. Mike, keep reporting and turn a deaf eye on those who don't appreciate...MikeM

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Mizzou_Tiger
Senior Advisor

Re: MY MY..........

my comments were not directed at Marketeye.........it is directed at these traders that say things that make no sense.........

 

as for pivots, its one thing to continue to irrigate a crop that actually has or is filling.........its another on a crop that has been baked for two months..........besides, I would imagine that "most" pivots on soya will be shut down in the next week, if they havent already.........

 

as for moving to Chi-town..........WHY??????..........its an electronic game these days..........

 

yes I agree that the SW needs a good soaking rain and that would change some dynamics more than anything.........

 

if our best estimates are 12.6 and 3.1...........well lets hope for the best I guess...........

 

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jrw322
Contributor

Re: MY MY..........

I totally agree with "ag678" about the lack of humility...

 

This guy is a know-it-all posting bully, who fails to recognize that without Mike McGinnis, this site would greatly diminish in content and posting volume.

 

Speaking for myself only, I am weary of reading this same guy's posts every 15 minutes. Enough already...give it rest for one month minimum.

 

Labor Day weekend holiday is upon us, & we all need a rest...including me. Adios.

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marketeye
Veteran Advisor

Re: From the floor September 2

Looking Ahead:

 

One analyst is saying, "This week was sell the rallies but next week will be buy the brakes,  as no one will want to be short and speculators will want to be long ahead of that big crop report. After pulling grains down all week, Friday saw some buying re-enter as another private crop forecasters came out with very low yield and production estimates for corn and beans, more so than last weeks crop tour results."

 

Mike

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Re: MY MY..........

Hey Mizzou:

 

I live and farm in  nc Iowa. 2.3 beans haven't turned yet, I am dry and a 1" rain would be awesome for me. Won't add any pods but will fill out what is there. You know not of what you speak!! Not to mention my 2.7 beans. BTW, went to a corn on corn plot and yields will be about 200bu. Always keep in mind that it is possible to be wrong. It happened to me once and I tried to learn from it.

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