From the floor September 29

[marketeye]

At the close:

The Dec corn futures closed  5 cents higher at $5.05. The Nov. soybean contract closed 11 cents lower at $10.99. The Dec. wheat futures settled 1 1/4 cents lower at $6.83 1/2.  The Dec. soyoil futures closed 49 points lower at $44.44. The Dec. soymeal futures contract settled $1.00 lower at $307.50 per short ton.

In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $1.63 per barrel higher, the dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are down 20 points.

Mike

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At mid-session:

The Dec corn futures are unchanged at $5.00. The Nov. soybean contract is 9 cents lower at $11.00 1/2. The Dec. wheat futures are 14 1/4 cents lower at $6.70.  The Dec. soyoil futures are 32 points lower at $44.61. The Dec. soymeal futures contract is $2.30 lower at $306.20 per short ton.

In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $1.18 per barrel higher, the dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are down 10 points.

One analyst says, "Today was the end of month end and quarter end profit-taking by funds. This investment group was fat with profits off Sunday night's two-year high corn and bean prices. Funds earn bonuses on profits if taken before the month and quarter-ends. They also wanted to secure profits prior to the release of the Quarterly Stocks report, Thursday. Traders expect a neutral to negative stocks report but they will return as buyers Friday on two issues. One, we have had 9 consecutive higher Friday closes. Plus, harvest progress, on dry weather outlooks, will bring in more of those disappointing yields in the southern Delta and eastern Corn Belt. Two, there's a frost scare for the upper Midwest this weekend. This will surely spark short-covering and speculative buying Friday."

Mike

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At the open:

The Dec corn futures are 12 cents lower at $4.88. The Nov. soybean contract opened 23 cents lower at $10.87. The Dec. wheat futures opened 18 3/4 cents lower at $6.66.  The Dec. soyoil futures opened 93 points lower at $44.00. The Dec. soymeal futures contract opened $5.20 lower at $303.30 per short ton.

In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.42 per barrel lower, the dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are down 34 points.

Mike

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At 7:05am:

Early calls: Corn down 8-10 cents, soybeans down 16-18 cents, and wheat down 13-15 cents.

Trackers:

Overnight grain=Trading sharply lower.

Crude oil=Trading $0.06 per barrel higher.

Dollar=Trading lower.

Wall Street= Seen opening lower as worries mount about European countries and their financial status.

Market notes: As month-end and quarter-end approaches, investors are taking profits from the grain markets. Plus, there is no fresh bullish news to feed the rally. Traders see the corn market testing $4.85. Today, a lot of positioning is expected ahead of tomorrow's USDA's Quarterly Stocks report and a revision of the U.S. wheat crop. Trade expectations for tomorrow's stocks report: Corn at 1.407 billion bushels, soybeans at 151 million bushels, and wheat at 2.44 billion bushels.

More in a minute

Mike,

[nwobcw]

Do you know what percent of expected bean and corn yields has been sold or forward contracted?  Therefore being already in the market pipeline.

[marketeye]

I don't. But I bet someone knows or at least thinks they know. I'll do some digging.

Mike

[hardnox604008]

And the dollar down, oil up a bit. OK whatever, you have my sympathies in having to write the morning excuse sheet.

This is a horrible market and anybody who thinks it has a lot to do with anything other than money chasing money is going to be disappointed.

For that matter, even if you do, how do you predict that one week it is "risk on" and prop desks are throwing widow and orphans' money into corn futures, the next week we suddenly decide that the exact same conditions that existed in Europe last week are a problem?

Don't really feel bad about only having bushels over APH unsold. Think I'll sell them too, good year. Sheesh, what a crock. h

The thing that really annoys me is the discount to Dec 11 corn, no doubt I should have fired the first shot there.

[jrsiajdranch]

Good Morning Mike I think every body bought a new combine this summer!  All of them are in the field running beans I think they will get an early start this morning.

As to the excuse sheet as Noxie calls it why isn't any body talking about the protectionist move our illustrious leaders are going to vote on today?  Won't that be harder on the market than everything else in My humble opinion. JR

[farmersaw]

I was wondering the same thing...  I figured the "string pullers" getting involved was a good enough reason for me to panic two days ago and buy some puts...  haven't seen anything mentioned about it, so am wondering if I over-estimated its importance.

I looked at it as a possible catalyst for an avalanche of doom...   🙂

[p-oed Farmer]

According to the last CFTC report...... The commercials were short some where around 5 bil bu ....... I would think that most of that was farmer selling?....... p-oed

[giolucas]

Mike and All,

What do you think the USDA report is going to come in on Soybeans, Bullish or Bearish?  While I am long the Novi Bean contract at 1109 and what happened last night I think makes me second guess my position.  Although, I strongly feel that all of the world crop problems will definitely propel us next year to higher levels and I am hoping the $ 14 -15.00 level.  I feel that this pull back is disappointing because of levels that were supposedly support levels got wiped out.  Lets see what happens during the day and tomorrows report. 

[marketeye]

giolucas,

One analyst says, "The average pre-report trade guess for corn is 1.407 billion bushels, down from 1.673 a year ago. A slightly friendly number.

Soybeans average guess is 151 million bushels were on hand September 1 versus 138 a year ago. A slightly negative number.

Wheat at 2.445 b.b. over a year ago of 2.209. Again, a slightly negative number.

Traders look to this quarterly report for a surprise, as history has shown that there has been times when the government says to us, "We found some corn we didn't know we had or, it turns out we had less than we thought,". So, be prepared. This report could give us a new low for the week, or we certainly  could rally as well. The report also will give all wheat production, We shouldn't expect any major changes in all wheat production, with the average guess at  2.264 b.b."

Mike

[zman343]

A weekly close below $4.95 on Dec corn would be a key technical reversal.  Monthly chart still looking positive.  I would bet they (funds) try to keep the market above $4.95 by Friday's close.  Maybe even try to get it to close higher on the week to negate any kind of weekly reversal.  They did it last week.