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Veteran Advisor

From the parlor pit 10-27

I t is blowing so hard here the wind got sucked all out of Iowa football team and the Spartans will easily kick their butts all over kinick on Saturday now!  I predict a 3 point win leaving us undefeated in the big 10 as well as over all we will be number 3 in the country on next Sunday!

well I don't think I have ever said anything more controversial than that on here. LOL

 

Well there seems to be some reason for optimism in the milk world right now.  Our exports are up.  And our imports form NZ have slowed in fact for the first time in a long time we are not NZ's biggest export mkt. China has taken that role now. 

 

Dad and I are currently not interested in locking in any prices on our milk production other than a small amount we did back in the beginning of this month for Jan through may production.  I think that price will end up being our low.  and the option will expire worthless as of right now. ( a lot could change I know)

 

Here is a chart of class 3 milk price for OCt. The old adgae was the trend is our friend so I am going with it right now.

 

http://www.cmegroup.com/popup/mdq2.html?code=DCV0&title=October_2010_Class_III_Milk&type=p#link=dail...

 

ALso talk about rose colored glasses here is an article put out last week that is very optimistic on many fronts.

 

NZ milk output to hit record - if weather allows

Milk production in New Zealand will rebound by 10% next year to a record high, feeding a recovery in exports – assuming the world's top exporter gets a break from the poor weather which has for two years sent output lower.

New Zealand will in calendar 2011 produce 18.6m tonnes of fluid milk, boosted by the continuing conversion of beef and sheep farms to dairy to capitalise on a revival in returns.

"Full production capacity has not been realised over the past two seasons to the adverse weather events," the US Department of Agriculture's Wellington bureau said in a report.

The country had "a pent up capacity to produce significantly more milk given the increase in land area devoted to dairy production, the increase in the number of cows and the ongoing genetic improvements to the national herd".

This year drought, followed by spring floods, held back production in much of North Island, with South Island hit by unusually late and strong snowstorm last month.

Chinese trade 

The rebound in milk output will foster a 4.1% rise in exports of the four major products – butter, cheese, skimmed milk powder and whole milk powder - taking them back above 2m tonnes, besides refilling inventories depleted to keep shipments going this year.

New Zealand dairy dynamics, 2011, (year-on-year change)

Cows in milk: 4.85m head, (+2.0%)

Milk production: 18.64m tonnes, (+10.3%)

Domestic factory use:18.13m tonnes, (+10.6%)

Butter exports: 461,000 tonnes, (+2.4%)

Cheese exports: 295,000 tonnes, (+3.5%)

Skimmed milk powder exports: 400,000 tonnes, (+12.7%)

Whole milk powder exports: 885,000 tonnes, (+1.7%)

Source: USDA attache report

Growth will be particularly strong in skimmed milk powder, a major export to China, which overtook the US last year to become the top importer of New Zealand dairy products.

Indeed, this trade has been growing by an average of 28% a year over the last decade, boosted by China's growing taste for diary products - in particular foreign ones given the stain left on the domestic industry by the melamine poisoning scandal.

Exports to the Middle East, growing by 18-19% a year, and Africa, by 25% a year, have also been expanding notably quickly, helped by a focus by Fonterra, the New Zealand dairy co-operative giant.

Back in the black 

The rate of conversions of New Zealand farms to milk production is expected to continue running at a rate of 70-80 enterprises over the next three or four years despite tight credit conditions, because of the relatively profitability of the sector.

Fonterra last month revealed its second-highest annual milk payout ever, for 2009-10, and helped by a recovery in dairy prices.

Indeed, dairy farms are expected to achieve a net profit of NZ$0.95 per kilogramme of milk solids for 2010, following a loss of NZ$0.91 per kgms the year before and a profit of NZ$1.65 per kgms in 2008.

 

Just two weeks before that article they were lamenting the fact that the weather was dampening the outlook for this years milk supply.

 

You all have a good day don't blow away in this weather.  I had a tree blow down on an electiric fence yesterday so the beef cows got out. but so far other than a few shingles that is the worst that has happened. BE safe and Go Spartans. JR


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