From the parlor pit 2-1

[k-289]

I supose Cario is out of the wheat buying for now ? 

[jrsiajdranch]

Palouser. I don't understand the whole mentality that folks will buy at any price?  Your fundamental based philosophy has a lot to go from but it is not the whole story. As to our dollar policy you do of course realize that all the major commodities are priced in dollars, right? SO as we deflate our dollar we cause all currencies that are tied to our dollar to require more funds to buy the same quantity. IS oil really in tighter supply than it was just 6 weeks ago? OF course not. Is the dollar weaker you betcha!  Look at today's trade early on it was weak as the dollar was stronger in the mid days it was higher guess what?  The dollar was lower. At the close the dollar was stronger so the grains were weaker.  But according to you there is no correlation.

What I am saying is that we keep trying to say that our new found wealth is based on some weird supply demand chart that is finally getting us to the point of profitability. It is not the ethol demand is an discretionary mandate the has given us an arbitrary demand based on the whims of a gov. In time as inflation creeps ever higher guess what that whole model falls apart and those who have hitched their cart to that mule will be the ass.

Now as to your hydrological friends assessment about the boogie man Well who would you like me to blame?

[Palouser]

Absolutely, Cairo is NOT out of wheat buying. They will buy as much or more than planned. The first rule of an authoritarian government, or any government, is to make sure there is plenty of food on the street.

The government of India is in a similar position though they are a democracy - or because they are a democracy. The last government fell because of lack of rural growth, where most of the votes are. The basic campaign question was 'are you better off?' The city dwellers could see new infrastructure. The rural voters didn't. Out went the government in a surprise ending. Today both India and China, having different approaches, have food inflation while they have plenty of food. Both governments have containing that issue as a top priority. Both are encouraging imports.

[Palouser]

Governments will buy at any price, for their people. Food is not anything like industrial widgets. The economic model does not apply to food. The majority of the earth's population are under governments where the government is the essential agent for providing food, or making policies that regulate its flow, subsidies and tariffs. The internal price for wheat is much higher in most countries where it is important than here. Namely, India, China, and Japan - to name a few. Anything to encourage internal production and reduce imports.One of India's problems, and other countries too, is if they want to sell wheat they have to subsidize it to the tune of more than $100/ton just to get it down to world traded prices.

Any price is cheap if it keeps people off the streets. That's the starting point for many populous countries.

[k-289]

What kind of shape is their currency in----have had experience with the Canadian $$ and the Mexican peso ---the ride of the currency  can be an experience of a financial nightmare on Elm street !