From the parlor pit 3-30

[jrsiajdranch]

SOmething I was thinking about this morning while feeding cows. Does the market really have to "buy " acres for corn?  The insurance garauntee is so high that it is a no brainer to plant corn especially following beans or anything other than corn.  So my thought is tha what really is needing to happen is that other crops need to buy acres. Wheat needs to get high enough to stop abandonment. Cotton seems to have already done it's job. Rice is starting to make it's move for sure.  Soys seem to be the dark horse here. How many acres of soys do we really need to maintain our supply?  WIth DDG's being increasingly fed for protien as well as energy they seem to be cutting into the SBM market.  What if they decide that beans are gonna take the hit and come in at 75 million acres or less?  Wouldn't this be bearish corn and bullish beans?  To get wheat high enough to keep acres from going to other crops doesn't that have to come higher as well?  Just a couple thoughts.

I still think there are a lot of fireworks to be had this year.  Dad and I were looking back at some stuff yesterday. In 2000 our corn ground back in Michigan averaged 132 bu. per acre. we averaged out under 300 dollars gross for those acres that year. Man how times have changed. ( oh yea we made money that year at those prices).

LGM insurance ran outa money for the dairy program last week. This had many farmers and their bankers very scarred come Mon. morning. YOu see you can only sign up on the last fri. and Sat. of the month. many reported that by 5:30 on Fri. afternoon the gov. had run out of money to fund the program. It will be another week before we know how many poundes of milk were signed up. Many bankers were making loans contingent on the farmer having this insurance. several folks out west are facing lines of credit being closed due to the lack of this insurance.

Cow slaughter is running 12 % ahead of last year. with these high prices for beef that will continue. 

We think it will be one more week before we can plant oats and hay. Ground just won't dry out. High ground is getting there but the low ground is still a ways off. But we are busy spreading manure so it isn't like we are bored. Be Safe. JR

[Sou Tx]

Hi JR

You made a point that I almost never see anyone bring up w/ regards to DDGS.   The protein replacement value.   It has to be replacing a fair amount of sbm in rations. 

Keep in mind that cotton produces +/- 800 # of seed per bale.  My guess is that each extra acre of cotton is the equivalent of about 18-20 bushel equivalent acre of soybeans.  2.5 mil acres more cotton =  +/- 1 million  acres of beans in protein equivalence.

My guess is bean stock suprise negatively.....but  ... ICBW.  

[Blacksandfarmer]

JR I see the problems in the plains wheat as bearish for corn if Oklahoma and Kansas stay dry. Say we are on track to plant 92 million acres of corn and farmers in the plains tear up a lot of the wheat acres. We would then have a real possibility of a glut in corn come fall..... If the weather holds up that is.

[rayjenkins]

you can tear up all the wheat you want, but if there is not sufficient moisture, planting corn is a moot issue

with all due respect to the good people of Oklahoma---you're really going to worry about  excess corn production in a state with a three year production average of barely 40 milion bushels??