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Veteran Advisor

From the parlor pit 7-26

Wel guys and gals I've given in I am not willing to buy glasses yet but I do need to start typeing in a bigger font. hope that helps the rest of you.


Friday we saw heavy selling in the spot markets in all classes of product and still we held our prices.Smiley Very Happy  That means we at least for now are going to hold up in the milk check..We don't seem to be getting into a scare to push us higher quicker but the negativity that is out there doesn't seem to have the wieght it did just six months ago.


What you ask is negative?  Well fridays heifer numbers were bullish for sure. with a heifer inventory of 4.05 million head that is 44.5 heifers for every 100 cows. assuming a national cull rate of 30% we have 14 heifers left over for expansion.Smiley Mad

Now that many heifers doesn't mean we are going to get that many replacements and the market is wise to keep a sharp eye on how many actually go into the herd. with the price of most of these heifers between 1200 and 1400 dollars one would have to wonder if some won't just get beefed?  I think with the price of select meat at these levels that is an avenue for profit as well.

Tlaking to some friends who just bot back from NZ has opened my eyes to a few things.

1.  they are in a cost squeeze as well. Just because they are the low cost world producer doesn't mean they are the highest profit.  I hear they ae considering going to a more americanized style of dairying. this could put them at a great disadvantage to us as thy have soils suitable for grazing but not to raising crops. Just goes to show there are many fads in the world and changiong to keep up with the neighbors might be the poorest decision you can make. 

WEll it looks like we have 5 days of no rain. I think we will be quite busy plus it's 9 days to fair. so you parents of 4-Hers no what that means. yep all the stuff we said we were going to avoid last year is staring us right in the face are we behind? you betcha!  SO I better go I think my wife wants to seriously curtail my time of posting she says the honey do list is huge.  But then again it always is! Be safe JR

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