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Veteran Advisor

From the parlor pit with outrage! 5-12

Well folks it is raining this morning in NCIA and dark clouds are building on many horizons. 

It has been a while since I have had time to put one of these together so this might get a little windy.

 

First off where are we on price?

 
 
 Trading Event 43 was held on Tuesday 3 May 2011 
 Summary of Results
Number of Qualified Bidders305
Number of Participating Bidders111
Number of Winning Bidders76
Number of Bidding Rounds15
Duration of Trading Event (hours:mins)3:02
Minimum Supply (Total MT)12,475
Maximum Supply (Total MT)13,225
Quantity Sold (Winning MT)13,137
Average Winning Price (USD/MT, FAS)$4,367
Change in GDT-TWI™ Price Index from Previous Event-0.1%
GDT Trade Weighted Index Changes

 

 
 Price Changes from Previous Event
Changes in Price IndicesContract 1
(Jul11)
Contract 2
(Aug11-Oct11)
Contract 3
(Nov11-Jan12)
All Contracts
Anhydrous Milk Fat (AMF)-4.9%-4.6%-4.0%-4.6%
Butter Milk Powder (BMP)n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.
Skim Milk Powder (SMP)11.5%-0.1%0.3%2.8%
Whole Milk Powder (WMP)-0.1%-1.5%-2.7%-1.7%
All Products (Trade-Weighted)4.3%-1.2%-1.6%-0.1%
 

 

that is the global situation Notice the big dip right after Japans earthquake and the slow return we have had to get back to pre earthquale levels.

 

On our domestic front March was very good but with the higherst recorded feed price ever the price still fell below breakeven for many producers especially those who purchase their feed.  April saw a drop of $2.53 in the class 3 price and with the last global trade we start to see weakness build into the powder market which has begun to weaken our class 4 price.

April class 3 milk is currently pegged at $16.87 while class 4 $19.78. Mail box prices will be running around 18.50 to 20.00/cwt. for the month of May.

Now to the outrage. Yesterday we had a limit down move in butter futures due to the fact that the CME grup announced an error in reporting of weekly butter stocks which increased supplies by over 27 million pounds! Now that is a head scratcher becasue just two weeks ago we were running quite a bit higher and just monday we posted the high for the year with a cash close over 2.09.

With all the increases in margin limits in all commodities and the constant complaining about speculators I am thinking we are being givin the old head fake.  CME and NAss are really doing a poor job of getting out real numbers.

This has turned out just like unemployment numbers or the state of the economy numbers they give out real rosey ones and then a month later here comes the real ones.

SO who do you believe anymore?  All the independent reporting/surveyors are in bed with our gubmint and are taking all of us for a ride. 

 

This is outragous!

 

In spite of all the management that is going on I believe they are gonna get their hands bit in a big way here. We have many supply siode concerns in all commodities especially the commodity of consumer spending. I think the squeeze play is on for real now, BE safe

 


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