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Veteran Advisor

Frost on the Pumpkin

A frosty start to the morning here in Cannon Falls.  It reminded me of a song that I haven't heard for a long time.

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JMRnKYNlHVA

 

I got over to Red Wing yesterday, and looked again at that field of beans that had been frosted about a month ago.  In the picture below, you can easily see the areas that froze:

 

 

 Iphone 141004 005_1_1.JPG

 

 Notice the discoloration in the field.  On the left, is what the field is supposed to look like.  On the right, the darker areas are those with the frost damage:

 

 

Iphone 141004 006_1_1.JPG

 

In the picture above, this is right along the roadway, where the beans didn't freeze.  You can see the darker area to the right.  Moving into the field:

 

 

 

 

 

Iphone 141004 007_1_1.JPG

 

 

you can see the black leaves hanging on the plants, and the black, discolored stems of the frozen plants.  Looking closer now:

 

 

 

 Iphone 141004 008_1.JPG

 

 

 

 

Notice this frost damage wasn't just the canopy.  It extended quite a way down through the canopy, and killed the plant almost a foot down from the top.   Notice the lack of beans above the frost line - very few.  A look at the ground:

 

Iphone 141004 011_1_1.JPG

 

 

shows where the pods went.  This is a nice field of beans, but where it was frosted, it will take a hit.  If there's one field, there's more out there.  Looking at an individual stem:

 

Iphone 141004 009_1_1.JPG

 

the damage is pretty evident.   Yes, there was frost in MN, even though some claim there wasn't.   

 

My neighbor from over in Central WI woke up to this yesterday morning:

 

FOT91AC.JPG

 

 

The first snowfall of the year.  Here in Cannon Falls yesterday:

 

Iphone 141004 012_1_1.JPG

 

 

 

one of the many picturesque areas to be seen, as we approach peak color.  This was taken coming into Cannon Falls by our high school.

 

I will update the weather tomorrow if I get a chance.  Nothing much more to show.   Nothing overly threatening right now.  Some light showers through the Midwest over the next few days - doesn't look like anything major.  Most farmers are just waiting for the crops to dry down.  There is no corn taken off here, except for what has been taken for silage.  I'll try and look at another corn field here in the next couple of days, and see where we are at.

 

One additional thing I want to add this morning.  Did anyone see the (I think) Case IH ad on TV, where they were saying that your information from your equipment is your information alone?  It seems to indicate that GPS information from some manufactures don't just download the position, but also upload information about what your equipment is doing.  I have suspected that was the case for a long time - it's the first time I have actually seen it in an ad.  If that is the case, and I believe that it is, it's just another case of the farmer being farmed without even knowing it.  Actual field data from the farm that could be compared year to year, just how valuable would that be?  Extremely.   Who has access to the infor - where does it get sold and how used?  I can only speculate.  And it's one reason I am no longer a speculator.....

 

 

Jen

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5 Replies
Veteran Contributor

Re: Frost on the Pumpkin

limit up $1.00

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Veteran Advisor

Re: Frost on the Pumpkin

No - not limit up.  The downside objective of this move has not been met yet, the way it seems to me.   Is this move already over-done?  In my opinion, yes.  The sky is falling didn't get the bushels shook out of the farmers, so it needs to be proven who is in control of this marketplace - and it's not the farmers.  Farmers haven't sold, so we keep the price going down to prove a point.   Those wanting our nations grain for cheap know that, eventually, it needs to come to market.  Maybe the point that will be proven is you don't sell grain you don't have - whether you're a farmer - or a grain merchandiser who also needs to fill contracts with bushels.  

 

I spoke with one of my farmer neighbors when I was over at the farm last week.  He said that he has sold is beans from a few years ago on a + $3.00 basis to a soybean processor a few weeks earlier.  The product is needed out there, it all depends on how badly.  I wouldn't touch this futures trading right now with someone else's money - because I think it's a good way to lose it.  Personally, I think your odds are better at the casino....

 

Jen

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Honored Advisor

Re: Frost on the Pumpkin

Prices will not recover much ground till there is only 25% perceived to be in farmers hands AND it is May or June or earlier.

 

It only takes 5% excess to drop prices or 5% short perceived supply to send them into profitable territory.

 

My guess is that there is only 10% of production that is safe from needing cashed in by July 15  = it is out there and will come to market. 

 

The +5.50 corn run lasted longer than any of the pundits imagined, my suspicion is the crash and burn will too.

 

Wonder how long the Brazilian gov't will be able to , or want to buy all the corn produced down there for a guaranteed loss?

 

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Veteran Advisor

Re: Frost on the Pumpkin

You're right Jen - plenty of fields with frost damage like that around our area.

Even worse in the low ground that had to be re-planted.

Grandson took me for a drive in the UTV to check some corn Friday evening.

103 day corn planted May 6th still hasn't black layered and checks 26-27%.

Top part of plants frozen last month but the stalks are still green up to the cobs.

 

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Veteran Advisor

Re: Frost on the Pumpkin

I had to get a belt for my Exmark mower. The implement dealer said beans were running between 40 and 70 bu/acre around the Zumbrota area. He said 1 farmer had told h that he tried corn a few days ago, it was still at 32% moisture. He decided to wait, like everyone else. At 32%, the corn should be just at black layer, unless it froze.

Jen
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