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Senior Contributor

Re: Funds Long Corn Futures

Also take advice from a producer that posted somewhere a few days ago I can't remember who. All yields start out at 100% and only deteriorate going forward. as a producer I can say this 100% fact! You start off with maximum yield potiental at planting and fight the yield decline all year until actual yield is made! That's farming in a nutshell. And once that bushel or bushels are lost due to a stressor, you don't get it back. You just continue to attempt to prevent further lost bushels from other stressors.
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Veteran Advisor

Re: Funds Long Corn Futures

That doesn't sound right to me.  Average yields can go up.  This year's yield can be better than last year's.  None of us start with 500 bpa (or whatever the theoretical corn yield is) and adjust down, we start from some base point.

 

Anyway, I don't think traders trade just yield - I think they are trying to arbitrage supply and demand in the very large sense.  Tariffs, weather, consumption, public preferences and a host of things play into supply and demand.  Funds in the larger sense and traders in general in my opinion are trying to find a point where prices are out of balance and they can make some money on the move.  Yields are one small piece of the supply demand picture.

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