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Senior Advisor

G-20 grain analysis project doomed (IMO)

In light of some other comments I've made I found the following to be fascinating. The article is on the Markets page and I'll link below. But here is some of the statements that sum it up. The effort is apparently to lessen unnecessary price rises that 'aren't warranted by the facts but, .... It goes to the heart of the issue of whether the USDA - or anyone, cank KNOW the 'answer' in a dynamic global production/market for grain. Or even what's going on in the fields of NAmerica.

 

"We're in a situation where we are basically eating what we produce," said Marc Sadler, team leader of the World Bank's Agricultural Finance and Risk Management Team.  ......

 

"The problem is that markets are made up of perception, i.e., what will happen to the weather, what stocks we do or don't have," said Mr. Sadler. "On the stocks side, it's about knowing what we have at a household or country level, it's about knowing how much we have in the larder. At times the picture can look as if there is a shortage looming, when in fact there isn't," he added.   ....

 

"The problem is that we all have access to data on food stocks/production, but we all interpret it in different ways and this is a major issue," said Mr. Sadler. "The objective of AMIS is to get countries that represent 80%-90% of global production and consumption of grains around the table on a technical level to discuss how we all interpret the data, so that we can all come out with the same answer," he added.

 

I can't imagine how to tell this guy they are chasing their tail on this one. http://www.agriculture.com/markets/analysis/wheat/wld-wheat-balced-but-tipping_11-ar24808

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Senior Contributor

Yuh think?

He added that although global wheat consumption is still being projected as higher than production in 2012-13 by the USDA, such estimates are based on ideal growing conditions and "at this stage of the crop, its hard to get a feel for the outcome and factor in what could go wrong."

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Senior Advisor

Re: Yuh think?

Yes, I caught the full irony of that statement. Even more reason to come up with 'the answer' everyone can agree on? As long as they don't rely on seasoned analysts they might get an 'answer', but if they do rely on them - no way!

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