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jcf97
Frequent Contributor

Gann Model

Does anyone follow this guy.  Last winter I think, he was talking about this big bullish cycle in ag commodities that would last many yrs.  Wellback then I subscribed to his email just to see what direction he thinks this is going based on those 60yr or longer cycles.  Now all he says ag is getting ready to go into a 1.5yr bear mkt?  I never did any of his trades or understand that to begin with, I just like getting another view or perspective on things.  But I dont know how a guy can have it both ways?  Bullish and bearish? 

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6 Replies
Sergio
Friend

Re: Gann Model

This guy not gave any consideration to fundamentals. So his view sometimes is usefull to bring an historic perspective. In a full bull market like the one we have till yesterday, his thinking may give an aproximation of the duration for the moves.

But when the markets suffer volatility, his views are out of focus.

Personally i think the market will get back, but the odds are that the highs are in...

Good luck !

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jcf97
Frequent Contributor

Re: Gann Model

Thanks for your insight Sergio.  I hope the top is not in but dont want it to get ought of hand like "08" or what ever year it was when MGE wheat went over $20.  That is not good for anyone.

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timetippingpt
Honored Advisor

Re: Gann Model

Not sure of your credibility on the question.

The name of his company is "Gann Global"

His name is Jim Flanagan.

He has spent hundreds of thousands developing an amazing data base.

He very correctly has reported since March 2009 that the 60 and reinforcing 30 year cycle indicated a major rally in commodities. He also is correctly reporting that the game will be over now, or very soon. Look around, higher prices are causing many areas of the world to unravel. Likely result will be what we all thought it would be...a double-dip economic problem. My opinion is that this year is similar in many ways to 1981, moreso than 1951. jmho

He also correctly notes that this leg up in commods should be followed by an 18 month decline. They almost always are.

For my money, he has the best database in the world. He does not give farm risk management advice and should not be used for that purpose. Also, his track record as a trader is less impressive than his data base, fwiw.

 

The 60 year cycle a great many of us follow NAILED the bond market high within days, it just nailed the bean market highs to within days. That however does not mean that beans can't make a new high, it just means that the odds of such are greatly reduced. As well, a farm's decision to retain price risk should be made before the last possible high (June 4th this year if you want a mathematically driven date)

 

Jim in no way is having it both ways. I read everything he writes (some is not that good, some is excellent) and can say that with certainty.

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County Line
Friend

Re: Gann Model

Time, 

 

Appreciate your input on this topic. I always try to keep time in perspective and have been wondering what your thinking would be on Gann at this point. I have to agree with you that I believe beans have topped. If June 4 is the date I would not expect a rally to new highs without drought and June is too early for that.

 

But what about corn?

 

I very much keep cycles in mind but unable to do the time studies like yourself. How does the stock market play out from here based on Gann?

 

Anyway thanks for your comment. it has not fallen on deaf ears as I plan to give serious consideration to completing old crop sales and push ahead with '11 sales. Not sure what I will do about '12.

 

Also you could help this board out a lot with "timely" discussion

Thanks

 

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GoredHusker
Senior Contributor

Re: Gann Model

Unless we take out all time highs, my charts say we resemble 1983 a lot more than we resemble 1981.  If we do make all time highs in here, then we resemble 1980. 

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jcf97
Frequent Contributor

Re: Gann Model

time,  just to show you a little credibility I have, that I was not making up that I do receive Jims emails. Today I got his email talking about the 50% short position on copper and a recommendation on the 66% short position on sugar and the other two were about silver and soybean oil.  The soybean oil he has seemd to be bearish on for a while if I recall correctly.  My question probably was not stated the best.  I do not follow his advice in making trades or do I even pretend that I understand how to make those trades.  I signed up just to get his view.  I did not know he did so many other types of trades, I thought it was mostly ag commodities.  I agree that his data base is impressive and I hope others can benefit from his insight.  I thought that earlier he was calling for a major bull run that would last longer than this and that is why I was suprised he was calling for a 18 month bear market.   

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