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Advisor

Gann Time

 

Time is due tommorow according to my count what it meens is up to you.

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5 Replies
Contributor

Re: Gann Time

Buck I don't know much so I am curious what it means to you. Do we head higher?

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Senior Contributor

Re: Gann Time

Gann died worth but 100k. Turns out he didn't sell that mnay subscriptions to his magic.

 

It would be nice if there  was some magic formula, but in fact heh wish creates the market.,

there isn't anything there.

 

Aer

 

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Contributor

Re: Gann Time

No one mentioned "magic formulas'".  I guess you can't read a chart.     Surely you've heard history repeats itself. Artihole you make it sound so simple but it isn't.  The markets move due to human manipulation. This manipulation can be very deliberate or in my opinion undeliberate purely on human nature -i.e. people tend to react similar to certain situations/market factors.

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Esteemed Advisor

Re: Gann Time

Vince there a couple of alternate patterns that I prefer (not saying they are better just different.)

 

Looking at cn2010 since 2009:

 

Price: Range equals roughly 165 (497-334=163 so use 165)

  2x 165 is current low of 330/335.

  April 04 high was 335 which fulfilled all kinds of harmonic relationships at that time

 

Time = I am using 2 different timing counts

#1: Starts on the high of 6/3/09 and ends on 12/10/09 or a 136 Trading Day (TD) range

       If you put the 1/8 points in time on a grid (and .382 and .618) most of the turns can be seen to fit.

 

#2: Starts on 9/8/09 and ends on 5/11/10 for a 175 TD range.

       Again, if you put on the 1/8 pts in time most of the turns can be seen to fit.

 

Now the cool part.....

The decline from 6/3/09 to the low on 9/7/09 was 4/8 of TD #1 range (68 days)

The rally back from 9/7/09 to the high on 1/4/10 was 5/8 of TD #1 range (85 days)  1/8=17 TD a prime number.

 

Going forward...

The rally from 9/8/09 to the high on 1/8/10 was 4/8 of TD#2 range (88 days)  1/8=11 which is .25 of 45 degrees almost

The decline from 1/8/10 will be equal to 5/8 of TD#2 range on 6/10/2010.

 

Now to SQUARE time and price:

The range in price is 165

165 x 1.618 = 267

267 Trading Days from the high on 6/3/09 = JUNE 11,2010

So TsqP at 330 on 6/11/10

My studies say it has a slippage of 5 cents either way and 2 days either way

So, we have a window of 330 to 335 from 6/9 to 6/13 2010 for a POTENTIAL

low in corn prices.

 

There are obviously other larger patterns ot consider, but for hedging decisions this one is appealing to us.

You can see how it helped explain our extreme bearishness back on 1/5

 

As always, we use buying triggers to place or lift hedges. Some of those were hit today, others are still in play, but we won't have any hedges left in place after the triggers are hit.  (previous weeks high exceeded is one; previous days high is another, parabolic is another)

 

SO FAR, this of course all fits into the analog of 1980 that we continue to monitor. Every year is alittle different so that might change at any time.

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Contributor

Re: Gann Time

ken, thanks for sharing your analysis..always interested in your point of view

 

Been hearing of the 6/11 time frame and a few things lining up in support of the theory...China, sick looking crops in water logged places {esp corn after corn}, LaNIna etc...so let's find a bottom

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