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rickgthf
Senior Advisor

Gasoline, ethanol & ethanol stocks

For the week ending 5/29 gasoline supplied was 7.549 million barrels per day, up slightly from the week before.  Likewise, ethanol production was up slightly at 765 thousand barrels per day and ethanol stocks were down to 22.476 million barrels which roughly the same as the 22.553 million barrels in the same week last year.

   Gasoline consumption at roughly 25-30% below the seasonally expected normal and leaves one to wonder if this level of gasoline might be all we can expect for the coming months.  The fact is, all the states have pretty much lifted all the economic & business restrictions previously in place so maybe what we're seeing is people's own self-imposed reduced mobility.

   When you think about it, it makes sense.  Even though coronavirus cases and deaths in major urban areas have declined dramatically and stabilized, you can see where in certain states like Florida, Texas, Georgia, etc., new cases and deaths have plateaued at fairly high levels, even increased slightly.  This would leave the US deaths stuck at a 1000 or more per day for the foreseeable future and make people cautious about their activities. 

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6 Replies
sdholloway56
Senior Advisor

Re: Gasoline, ethanol & ethanol stocks

My 80 pct prediction is looking OK.

Even though I pretty much pulled it out of you know where.

Made sense to me.

We’re pretending that the virus doesn’t call the shots but it does.

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sdholloway56
Senior Advisor

Re: Gasoline, ethanol & ethanol stocks

BTW, in the "you really can't make this stuff up" category, I gather that a proposal to subsidize people going on vacation this summer at least was under consideration.

Burn some gas, help those struggling hospitality businesses etc.

I have a connection to a remote place in a western state that is primarily populated by wealthy retirees and transplants. They were about ready to blockade the whole area this spring to keep the pestilential hordes out.

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sdholloway56
Senior Advisor

Re: Gasoline, ethanol & ethanol stocks

I'm not suggesting that because gas usage is off 20-25% that GDP, annualized, is down that much.

But I think it is a pretty telling stat as to the degree that normal economic activity is resuming.

BTW, U6 unemployment is over 20%- not a lot of road tripping from that.

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sdholloway56
Senior Advisor

Re: Gasoline, ethanol & ethanol stocks

TSA gate count about explodes to 17% of last year.

Boomin'.

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sdholloway56
Senior Advisor

Re: Gasoline, ethanol & ethanol stocks

Haven't seen the breakdown but today's crude and product stocks and refinery runs suggest it isn't improving much.

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sdholloway56
Senior Advisor

Re: Gasoline, ethanol & ethanol stocks

https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_cons_wpsup_k_w.htm

Right at 80% of same week last year. Although there was other build of stocks so supplied does not = burned.

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