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Senior Advisor

Gasoline supplied, ethanol produced and ethanol stocks are ....

I have to admit, gasoline supplied, ethanol & ethanol stocks are coming back faster than I thought they would.

  Gasoline supplied has come from a low of 5.065 million barrels per day to 7.398 m barrels per day in just five weeks (really four weeks).  Essentially we've gone down to about 50% of expected consumption and back up to 74%.

  While ethanol production hasn't rebounded as fast. It didn't reach it's low of 537,000 barrels per day until the week of 4/24  it has increased to 617,000 bls per day the week of 5/8. Meanwhile, ethanol stocks have declined from a high of 27.698 million bls the week of 4/24 to 24.190 million bls, about halfway to a more normal 21-22 million bls.

  Given that we're using ethanol at about 750,000 bls per day, producing 617, 000 bls per day, we're using about 913,000 bls (or 1 million) per week of stocks.  So you can see that either ethanol production needs to increase or stocks will fall or some combination of both in just a few weeks.

  Needless to say, I'm encouraged.


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