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12-24-2018 10:22 AM
12-24-2018 10:36 AM
Yes, he really is an analyst/economist and not a trader. But he has a few really good models that often have been spot on about data.
You and him together would be a great team.
12-24-2018 04:48 PM
Appreciate the well thought out comments ----Time charting is even more distorted by federal policy than price IMO. (One reason many charters don't rely on it ------ that does not say it is meaningless.... it would be important.. if the market intervention bureaus around the world didn't play politics with food as often as they do..
As examples ...VR's examples of the 50's and 60's stagnation time extremes were very much created by usda policy -- a time when excess volume was never allowed to clear the market.
01-07-2019 06:06 PM - edited 01-07-2019 06:08 PM
I struggle with finding any meaning in long term historic perspective---- when grain trade and production is so much manipulated by government policy ----- I have yet to get a grip on the commodity affect of monitary policy in 2008 and the followup lockdown of interest and monthly cash transfusions that followed.
I keep wanting to think that charts are not comparable from one side of that line to the other. Combined with the global money grab by cbot, Seasonals became almost nonexistent and within 6 years our grain storage and distribution network was in big trouble.... The basis beyond that point has been a study in fear and short term greed............without rudder of predictability.
How lost am I ??
01-07-2019 10:44 PM
Perhaps you are focusing too much on fundamentals. Futures markets trade more on psychology rather than fundamentals, until we get close to delivery dates and all the liars poker players have to get out of the way. But in the meanwhile, if we can find a way to gauge the psychology of the market, we can have a good change at predicting price movements. That is the rationale behind all technical analysis.
I have my own pet peeves...like how is it that if I try to manipulate a market, they'll throw me in jail, but the government and its agencies, and to some degree the exchanges, are given full license to manipulate. As if there is a good and bad form of manipulation, and the government brand always is good ? Rubbish...
But we either accept it and try to find ways to get around it, or we look to do something else with our lives...