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12-19-2018 04:16 PM - edited 12-19-2018 04:23 PM
The whole tech movement is based on people believing what they are told..... no matter how far fetched it may be.
A telephone without wires...... and suddenly every caller is believable and we hold folks accountable for every near joke or almost comment they might have never made. Yet every one we meet online or twitter is a guru.
Listen to those congress folk drilling facebook for selling information..... How did we think siri would know us so well if they don't use our information. If a congressman can be that simple minded --- sure traders will believe China has the worlds best interests at heart....pure as driven snow.... and their mouthpieces in our media( check that ---its wrong....The media has no alegiences outside of the political realm.)
Privacy, integrity, and the rule of law is gone ........
Truth gone...... All dignity in the printed or stated word is gone..... We're haveing congressional investigations into "he said, she said...... and was it said enough times to become believable....without regard for whether it is a criminal issue. .We have totally lost it ....... so yes we are stupid enough to think that our economic competitor deals in absolute truth....we been their stooge for decades.
We are even dumb enough to think that this techie uber trip through time is good for all....... not just building empires for the tech elite.
This comes out as Utopia for 10% and abject poverty for 90%..(there are government work offices where the poor cannot apply for a job unless they can log on at home and apply on line with a computer that is new enough to use the software).......... if we are not carefull to wise up about the cost of pipe dreams and what we swallow to enjoy them.
12-19-2018 05:17 PM
Excellent post SW, you get the big picture...good for you !
As for gurus, I just try to be a squirrel in search of a nut, and hope that I am right a little more than I am wrong. The only thing I am sure of is that my ex-wife thought she was so important that she yelled out her own name during sex.
Merry Christmas !
12-20-2018 08:47 AM - edited 12-20-2018 08:55 AM
1. Don't believe that seasonals mean much
2. Corn over-priced
These are two extremely poorly based opinions, shouting bias.
Ignoring the facts and the statistics usually results in poor performance.
Of course, 2 out of 10 years seasonals are overcome by fundamentals.
2018 of course has been a perfect seasonal year, Simply perfect.
Corn over-priced based upon what? Some bogus Chinese number
that is not available to the market anyway, and they buy no corn imports
either, so who cares. It is a little like increasing the amount of oil in
the untouchable arctic national reserve, who cares.
If you can't see a weekly gap higher on the charts, that has now held
for 3 weeks, until it fails, it should be respected. And, it has held in the
face of horrific commodity performance in general, oil, softs, meats. etc.
jme (just my experience)
Of course, the gap may fail to hold, and it might fail today, I just think
your top 2 reasons are very suspect historically. Maybe not this event,
but over time, very suspect.
12-20-2018 09:35 AM
Hey, you know, maybe you are right ! That's what makes a market.
I'll just say that its a terribly dangerous idea to think that you know better than the data, not because you don't, but because most of the market that trades commodities and sets prices usually factor in the data they have as opposed to the data they don't have, because that's all that's available. So deny the data for whatever reasons, markets trade on it and you have to respect it even if you think its wrong.
In terms of seasonals, its like playing at the dice table and saying that because the guy just rolled three sevens in a row, he must roll another one. Any successful dice player will tell you that its not true. Now perhaps there is a self -fulfilling prophecy going on in the corn market, insofar as if a large proportion of the people who control the majority of capital all believe something will happen, then its likely to happen. To me that's the same as believing in alchemy if there are no solid reasons for the seasonality to exist. For example, there is a seasonal bias to the upside in bond prices at the end of the year, as financial institutions want to show that any un-employed capital is being held safely. Likewise, there is an upward bias to equities in the first two months of the year, as pension funds re-balance portfolios at that time. So in those cases, the seasonal bias has a fundamental underpinning which validates it. Can you tell me what fundamental factor supports the supposed seasonal bias in corn ?
Bottom line is corn looked heavy the way it traded earlier this week, and this morning we are trading seven cents lower than where we were when I wrote that the market seemed like a top was near. I don't think this is a major top, but its going to cause some headaches for farmers who have corn sitting in silos or elevators and are about to get a first storage bill. I still think we trade up to the high $3.80s to low $3.90s, but we may have to take a step back before we take two steps forward. If those are poorly-based opinions, so be it. Right now they're making poorly-based profits, and until the market says otherwise, I think you will see lower prices down to at least the $3.60 mark before we go and make a major top again.
12-20-2018 05:48 PM
12-20-2018 06:28 PM - edited 12-20-2018 06:32 PM
8-) That's a strategy that works very well. I wonder if there is a fundamental reason for it ?
I always liked when Eddie Murphy describes why the Dukes should wait to buy pork bellies just before Christmas in the Trading Places movie. He even invoked the "GI Joe with the Kung ***** grip" defense, which I subsequently used in many a client presentation in my career. But that's the kind of fundamental reason that can underpin a seasonal strategy, and once that correlation is defined it makes a lot of sense.
12-21-2018 11:26 AM
Merry Christmas Vince.
My pointing out the obvious to Raycom was enough to cause
you to lash out?
I merely thought advocating for a more seasoned and longer-term
perspective with rayc was a good idea for most farmers.
3.60 cash corn with declining carryouts in a world of unlimited
currency sloshing around is certainly not over-valued, by
any standard. Lots of things could make it look pretty cheap by
The weekly gap has not been filled by the way...weekly continuation
chart gap is at 3.70. Corn is actually in a pretty bullish position by
most historical standard, buying in the 3.70 to 3.75 area would
normally make some sense. There are a number of indications that
2019 could be a good year for commodities, and corn in particular.