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BA Deere
Honored Advisor

Re: Nov. 22 beans are $13.19.

ooor does January come before December ....think about that one   πŸ™‚   it`s all relative 

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sw363535
Honored Advisor

Re: Nov. 22 beans are $13.19.

Not many good comments in that green "news" list.

 

 

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dwillinois
Senior Contributor

Re: Nov. 22 beans are $13.19.

Decatur cash bids 6.19 and 14.15 ......no ground piles anywhere 

local 5.99 and 13.91

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roarintiger1
Honored Advisor

Re: Nov. 22 beans are $13.19.

Someone smarter than me knows where the resistance levels are pricewise for both corn and soybeans.  But my gut tells me there is a whole lot of air between those numbers and where we are now. 

That being said, small incremental sales never hurt anyone.  πŸ˜‰

lsc76cat
Senior Advisor

Re: Nov. 22 beans are $13.19.

"I like to watch Eve"

And that is what I plan to do with the market for a while.  Agree there is air between current and resistance. 

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sw363535
Honored Advisor

Re: Nov. 22 beans are $13.19.

Roaring, lets take a stab at that.....

https://www.barchart.com/futures/quotes/ZCK22/overview

Corn(May 22) hit lows in May and august of 2020  at around  $3.05. The trend line from that point to today (6.04). That trend line has been unsuccessfully tested every month since September.  So that would insinuate the resistance is in the 5.93 to 5.95 range for the next week.  If fertilizer takes 60% of acres to beans the low range risk is minimal.  Price volatility  is up.

Beans (May 22). hit lows also in May of 2020 then had a 12 month run that doubled value to the 16 area in May of 21, followed by a 6 months slide loss of $4 value to $12 followed by a slingshot up in 60 days to near 14 and gaining momentum up.  That is not a long term trend unless you start at $8.20 in may of 2020 and chart it to todays prices.  I would call resistance at 12.50 because it is not tested in the last 45 days. But fundamentals and the near silence in the market pushers who should be touting the Brazilian "avalanche" lining up at the ports, (along with the news we get from Brazil thanks to our River mogul Hobbyfarmer). The big news in beans is the high risk of supply/demand issues.  The US is the next shoe to drop(planting acre intentions)---my call is beans have the volatility risk.

Wheat, (kc July 22), looks like it broke resistance this last week if you only look at the last 6 months of $2 gains, but the trend is much longer than that.  Id begin the trend also in august of 2020 when wheat was at $4.  The long term trend from $4 is calling resistance at 7.65 to 7.70.  We are trying to test it now.  Because of wheats ability to draw from both ends of Europe, even though Argentina and Australia are not looking productive, the strength of this run in US wheat is  our crop conditions and dryness from Amarillo to Central Canada.  If the wheat run from Texas and Oklahoma this spring is still dry come May this could be one of the strongest wheat trends in history.  

Is there any upward resistance?  That is the question.

 

Hobbyfarmer
Honored Advisor

Re: Nov. 22 beans are $13.19.

$6 corn

$14 beans

$8 wheat

All very good prices.

Historically not the top prices ever paid but still very little time spent up here.

Inflation and erosion of the $ is to be a consideration too. Makes these prices not quite as good as they appear.  

I think there are literally boat loads of grain sitting unpriced on the farm. This is not usual to have these prices coupled with a fairly high amount of  farmer owned inventory. This is either a "gift horse" or backyarditts on my part and there isn't that many bu actually still unpriced and available.

Then there is a dryness issue down yonder along with a real continuing dryness issue in the western one third of our bread basket. Lots of moving parts. 

Hobbyfarmer
Honored Advisor

Re: Nov. 22 beans are $13.19.

Well, well, well today made it look like last Friday never happened.

Most markets suffered today. 

Wed report leaked two days early?

 

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sdholloway56
Senior Advisor

Re: Nov. 22 beans are $13.19.

After a very hot week ahead, very big rains forecast for ARG.

Perhaps not dissimilar to late June this past year when every one here was uber bullish?

I don't know, but give it some consideration. I don't know what the rest of the year has to offer but not sure that the irremediable damage to S. Hemiisphere crops is as great as currently hoped.

BTW, ARG farmer held up corn planting, trying to outplay la nina. this is like early June.

You may not like it but I did give you a heads up about the wrinkle in the maps approx. June 15.

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BA Deere
Honored Advisor

Re: Nov. 22 beans are $13.19.

On corn Angie Stetzer says this chart has been living rent free in her head.  I`m guessing it`s 2014?   But that would suck, leading into 7 years of pestilence & famine for the farmer.  

BADeere_0-1641863726247.jpeg

https://twitter.com/GoddessofGrain/status/1480636983131185163/photo/1   

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