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Advisor

Gift horse

I'll go with an interpretation based on most of the last 8-9 years whereby USDA is light on total planted acres in the Mar 1 report and then given any sort of agreeable weather will add some back in the June report.

 

Those years have tended to offer some seasonal selling opportunites and I'll look to advance sales to equal the 75% of APH insurance guarantee at some higher targets. It's worth being a little patient as there are some planting problems more years than not. With 50% already on, it isn't a tragedy if they don't get filled.

 

I'll submit that if your primary analytical view is that USDA is lying then the odds favor that sometime come July or so you'll be squealing like a hog getting castrated with a barbecue fork.

 

Or you may be favored by adverse conditions but odds don't lean that way.

 

With revenue insurance it seems that selling rallies up to the guarantee is the way to play it.

 

 

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Honored Advisor

Re: Gift horse

What USDA is saying is "Don`t put back your pasture fences!  Don`t seed down alfalfa! You plant corn and forward sell for your insurance guarantee of +$4.65..cause this summer we`re gonna slam it down!".  If you don`t forward sell it now, it`ll be like the farmer is Charlie Brown and the market/USDA is Lucy holding the football. 

 

That`s not saying that those with enough "brass" won`t be well rewarded for "doing nothing" by fall.  Stay tuned  Smiley Happy

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Honored Advisor

Re: Gift horse

Yep I'd sell right up to the insurance level, no way to lose.

 

Made a friend on the cruise we took last month, Farmer from the Blue Earth, Minn area. delivered his '13 corn for $6.40 last fall.

 

Said he had never had a crop failure in more than 45 years of farming.

 

Get those sell orders in right away, these prices won't last.

 

We are awash in massive amounts of grain that can only get larger and more massive. We are overdue for a nationwide bin buster. $3 corn and $8 beans are only a few planter passes from becoming reality. After all we found out Georgia and Maryland set the pace and can flood the market early. The planters are already rolling down south and as we all know planted is as good as harvested even if it takes 4 months.

 

Going once... 

going twice...

going....

 

don't be the second highest bidder at the auction.

 

Sell early ... sell often.

 

 

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Senior Contributor

Re: Gift horse

    From a bunch of guys that were sure the sky was falling just a few weeks ago,he he.Go ahead and put those pasture fences back in and plant the alfalfa.Maybe when it comes time to sell the second half of your corn crop you will get as much or more for it.Its called deversification,governing the flow.Otherwise like I have said in an earlyer post last fall,you are just getting played!

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Honored Advisor

Re: Gift horse

For all the "Sheldons" of the world, I believe that hobby's post had some sarcasm in it.....Smiley Wink

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Senior Advisor

Re: Gift horse

From Hobby, no way.

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Advisor

Re: Gift horse

I will reiterate that the belief that USDA is wrong should be no more than a footnote to your entire analysis and strategy.

 

If it requires a mental device then try this: the USDA economists are the fellow conspirators (against Real Americans) along with climate scientists.

 

Even though you've thoroughly bebunked that hoax, did you get them to stop?

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Honored Advisor

Re: Gift horse

Well Nox, if you know something is false and most people believe it (USDA) to be true, then you have a edge, kind of like Clint Eastwood wanted the gunfighter that he was against to have "the sun in their eyes".    But these Guru`s and USDA rhetoric can be really convincing.  I fell for it myself earlier this winter, I really thought if a young guy could forward sell in the low $4`s and his C.O.P. was maybe in the high $3`s that he maybe ought to lock in a little. 

 

But sometimes you need to have faith like the nuns in the joke who fill their gas tank with a bed pan.  Smiley Happy

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