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Veteran Advisor

Giving Away The Store

You guys crack me up.


You cite information that makes you sure the market is wrong and has to go up, but in doing so you are letting everyone else in on the secret.


You are the guys who make waste-paper out of USDA surveys.  You curse and revile crop scouts who are trying to make yield estimates of your fields.  You look out your window and tell why people who are reading reports from Brazil have to be wrong.


This is gold you are giving away.  The guy who won't tell how many acres he has planted, how many hogs he has, how many employees work for him - this guy is giving away all the great marketing information the rest of us can make a killing on.


Thanks for the tips, and keep up the good info.


(You guys do have a sense of humor, right?)


What am I doing with your info?  So far, so good.  I have nothing sold except some Nov beans that are in the money but I have plenty of sell offers at higher prices.

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7 Replies
Honored Advisor

Re: Giving Away The Store

What store?


Was it the term "fake news"  


What's your problem Jim....... ?


Is it the fact that your back yard is the only one that counts?


We have another near record crop "projected"  ......   and all crops look great?


I went from SWKs to the Salina area this weekend .....300 miles .........  and every field is standing and running water..

Every wheat field has crop standing water and drowning out white and dying areas.  Most summer crops are unplanted and have washouts running water.


Your saying I should not mention that because it might sound contradictory to the usda projection??


or are you saying the rivers and streams in Ks are Fake news?


Or is it my travel of this route since 1965 is irrelevant?


Or is it that we are just not relevant unless you are paying for the information?


Actually you can get all that weather information on a cell phone app if you read anything the usda doesn't produce.

And if you got JD stock you can probably see that our planters have been parked most of the last three weeks...

So your point is we should keep it to ourselves and leave the discussion to the professionals on a marketing talk site?


Veteran Advisor

Re: Giving Away The Store

had over 4 inches of rain the last couple of days....creeks half mile wide in a couple of places.


trying to figure out how we're going to get all the planting done, etc, etc......


if any bright spot, M to M had  roobse on that was somewhat friendly on wheat and corn.


I watched part of us farm report......I think utterback has gotten bigger, and bowers looked like he didn't feel well.....


but they were hopeful at least for a little bit.


here tho is a problem, we COULD see a rise in wheat for a while, until harvest gets in full maybe one should  buy

a call option......what that's flys into the face of my logic, thinking wheat goes down at harvest. ((i.e. wrong time to get calls))



might be time to buy a call in corn also..........


jim you might have enjoy my little post last year how the wheat tour is espionage


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Veteran Advisor

Re: Giving Away The Store

Well, I was right (sadly).  You guys don't see the humor in bragging about how you hate surveys but give your info away for free..


OK, whatever.


If it were any other group of posters, you'd be saying they are bad mouthing and talking the market up.  Well, I hope you succeed.  I'm perfectly willing (and expect) to sell at higher prices.


The baseline question is, what will be the price this fall?  If it is lower than today, one can make money selling even now.  If it's higher than today - ah, that's the rub.  What makes it higher?  Some water in corn fields?  How much water?  How much off the yield?  A bunch, is my guess.  A bunch of water, not a bunch off the yield.


Looking at even a large part of the US grain production is like the 6 blind men trying to describe an elephant.  

"It was six men of Indostan

    To learning much inclined,
Who went to see the Elephant
    (Though all of them were blind),
That each by observation
    Might satisfy his mind

Each in his own opinion concludes that the elephant is like a wall, snake, spear, tree, fan or rope, depending upon where they had touched. Their heated debate comes short of physical violence, but the conflict is never resolved.

he disputants, I ween,
Rail on in utter ignorance
    Of what each other mean,
And prate about an Elephant
    Not one of them has seen!"


There is another side of the story - the view from the perspective of the elephants.


Six blind elephants were discussing what men were like. After arguing they decided to find one and determine what it was like by direct experience. The first blind elephant felt the man and declared, 'Men are flat.' After the other blind elephants felt the man, they agreed.


I guess from that point of view, the corn, soybean, wheat, oats, cattle and hog markets all agree the farmer is broke.  🙂



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Honored Advisor

Re: Giving Away The Store

For cryin' out loud,  buy some crop insurance and take a chill pill.    


Not everyone is going to have a bumper crop this year........especially when we can't even get it planted the first time.


You can project or predict all you want.............but you'll have to do it without 100% of everyone's information.......which makes it just a best.


And.........if the numbers don't add up correctly at the end of the year, you can just change the numbers and call it correct.  And....if it still doesn't come out the way you want it to, you can change LAST YEAR's numbers to suit your needs.


Speaking of elephants, the elephant in the room is that there are still millions of acres that need planted or replanted and the calendar is closing in on June.


But.......never forget that the house ALWAYS wins.    Smiley Wink



Honored Advisor

Re: Giving Away The Store

And, just to add to Roaring's Rant...we all need a little of R&R sometimes...


The forecast is cold with chances of rain 4 days next week, which gets us to the big race. Planting after the big race has ALWAYS had a 20% yield hit btw...just hard records from the Greatest Spectacle in Farming home town....  🙂


Raining again as I get ready to leave for Mass, super saturated again on 5/21. Next field day would be 5/25 if it was hot and windy, which it will not the big race is upon us I suspect. PP is a pretty good option for some I suspect.


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Senior Contributor

Re: Giving Away The Store

The market thinks we have enough until we don't!
Another reminder of WHO really is in control.
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Veteran Contributor

Re: Giving Away The Store

Anybody ever buy in and play a game of Texas Hold'em or watch it on TV?  Interesting game.  The big stack (most money) is a big advantage.  They can afford to play the litttles and take advantage when their timing is right.  They are even able to win the pot when they don't have the best hand!  They have the money.  I'm not complaining but I have to know that's how the game works.


The board is a great tool to buy or sell your product.  Make your decision and don't look back.  The rub comes in when you choose to invest, speculate, reown, Texas Hedge...  Important to see that I am not the big stack. 


This site is a valuable tool to hear from those with "boots on the ground."  This is us littles advantage.  Funds shouldn't waste their time here!  Share what you see in your circle.  I think we all realize that we probably share more when we have crop concerns.  I won 't holler at you when you report your best crop ever.  That's what we work for.


I will not be critical of  anyone with how they play their hand.   Otherwise I would go play some Black Jack.  🙂


Hint:  Don't hit for a card if you have over 11 and the dealers card is a 2,3,4,5 or 6!

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