Global Warming Refresher

[bigrock4076903]

Nice post Jen.

The peer reviewed research is overwhelming - climate change is real.

Very simple really - put billions of tons of carbon in the atmosphere where it stays for a 1000 years, it is going to have an effect.

Too bad it became political because it affects us all.  Why is it that most advanced countries, other than the US, accept it as fact?

From a farmers standpoint, go north. 

I say by 2025, not far off, the effects will be dramatic.   Change does not always happen incrementally, but normally in large swings.

[SouthWestOhio]

Climate scientists abandoning ship. Really Hobby who told you that whopper?

[jennys_mn]

Obviously, I touched a nerve here this morning.  Hobby, I try to keep an open mind and be objective in what I put on here.  This isn't about what today or tomorrow or what last winter was.   It's about long term trends, years and decades.  And there is no real debate.  The Earth is warming.   The evidence is all around us.  The problem with the global warming theory is that most theorists don't include the sun's varying output of energy.  Yes, we've been studying sun spots and its cycles for a long time.  And in a way, they outline what the magnetics of the sun are doing.  But we've only recently began to measure exactly what the sun is putting out.  Our sun isn't dying, it's going through it's normal cycles.   But it's 'normal' cycles are a broad area.  And it seems the Suns magnetism is something less than steadystate and predictable.  All I know, is that right now, our sunspot activity should still be very active.  We should've had solar max (defined as when the suns poles flip) but that hasn't happened yet.  It looked like it was going to happen months ago - but didn't .  We have some spots on the sun, but not what you'd expect at solar max.  It is known the the magnetic forces on the Sun have been decreasing, because of measurements we can now do.  But we're comparing these known measurements against what we think what they might have been from observations long term.  We can now measure the solar wind, density and temperature.  We know more about the sun than ever.  Where it gets murky is when we start doing the comparisions to long term metrics, and how we think things will happen in the future.  I'm not saying I have all the answers.  Not by any means.  I can only point to what I know, what I see, and try to educate when and where I can to someone willing to listen.

Jen

[r3020]

snip-

The following are 23 news stories from a variety of sources that everyone should consider before the avalanche of “go green” stories that will be unveiled on Earth Day – in the media and in our kids’ schools.

Whether or not one wants to promote the perfectly fine goal of fostering a better environment and leaving a cleaner planet for one’s children, that should not be carried out on the basis of disinformation, hysteria, or hidden political agendas.

1. Humans are NOT to Blame for Global Warming, Says Greenpeace Co-founder… (Daily Mail)

“There is no scientific proof of man-made global warming and a hotter earth would be ‘beneficial for humans and the majority of other species’, according to a founding member of environmental campaign group Greenpeace. The assertion was made by Canadian ecologist Patrick Moore, a member of Greenpeace from 1971 to 1986, to U.S senators on Tuesday.”

2. James Hansen Admits Global Temperature Standstill Is Real (The GWPF)

“According to Hansen et al. the Nasa Giss database has 2012 as the ninth warmest year on record, although statistically indistinguishable from the last 12 years, at least. Noaa says it’s the tenth warmest year. The difference is irrelevant.”

3. ‘Gaia’ Scientist James Lovelock: I Was ‘Alarmist’ About Climate Change (NBC)

“The world has not warmed up very much since the millennium. Twelve years is a reasonable time… it (the temperature) has stayed almost constant, whereas it should have been rising — carbon dioxide is rising, no question about that,” he added.

4. Climategate U-turn as Scientist at Centre of Row Admits: There Has Been No Global Warming Since 1995 (Daily Mail)

“Professor Jones also conceded the possibility that the world was warmer in medieval times than now – suggesting global warming may not be a man-made phenomenon. And he said that for the past 15 years there has been no ‘statistically significant’ warming.”

5. Climate Expert von Storch: Why Is Global Warming Stagnating? (Der Spiegel)

“So far, no one has been able to provide a compelling answer to why climate change seems to be taking a break. We’re facing a puzzle. Recent CO₂ emissions have actually risen even more steeply than we feared. As a result, according to most climate models, we should have seen temperatures rise by around 0.25 degrees Celsius (0.45 degrees Fahrenheit) over the past 10 years. That hasn’t happened.”

6. Warming Plateau? Climatologists Face Inconvenient Truth (Der Spiegel)

“Data shows global temperatures aren’t rising the way climate scientists have predicted. Now the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change faces a problem: publicize these findings and encourage skeptics — or hush up the figures.”

7. German Public Television Stuns Its Readers, Concedes Medieval Warm Period May Have Been 0.5°C Warmer Than Today! (Wetterthema via No Tricks Zone)

“The ARD piece even goes on to say that the Medieval Warm Period from the years 800 to 1300 was similarly as warm as the ‘last climate normal period of 1961 to 1990, whose mean temperature is used as the reference value.’ The ARD writes further:  Using alternative reconstructions that period was even about 0.5°C warmer than today.”

8. Why Has Global Warming Stalled? (BBC)

“There are plenty of possible explanations but none of them adds up to a definitive smoking gun.”

9. Global Warming Pause ‘Central’ to IPCC Climate Report (BBC)

“The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is meeting in Sweden to thresh out a critical report on global warming. Scientists will underline, with greater certainty than ever, the role of human activities in rising temperatures. But many governments are demanding a clearer explanation of the slowdown in temperature increases since 1998. One participant told BBC News that this pause will be a ‘central piece’ of the summary.”

10. There Has Been No Global Warming Since 1998 (Telegraph)

“The headline of this post really shouldn’t be controversial. It chimes perfectly with what Kevin ‘null hypothesis’ Trenberth wrote in that notorious 2009 Climategate email to Michael Mann: The fact is that we can’t account for the lack of warming at the moment and it is a travesty that we can’t.”

11. Senator Barbara Boxer’s Own Experts Contradict Obama On Global Warming (Forbes)

“I don’t have much patience for people who deny climate change,” Obama added. However, climate scientists including United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) lead author Hans von Storch report temperatures have remained essentially flat for the past 10 years, and indeed for the past 15 years.”

http://www.ijreview.com/2014/04/128985-33-stories/

[captive809198]

Jen,

Love your posts.  I agree that the sun has more to do with our weather than anything.  However, to say that us humans are to blame for all  warming, I disagree.  I'm with Hobby on this one.  Even the co-founder of the Weather Channel believes we have a greater threat of global cooling than warming.  

Bigrock said "Climate change is real".  Of course it is.  it's the climate - it's always changing.  Volcanoes spew more carbons/chemicals into the atmosphere than we could. (Remember Mount Pinatubo?  it was responsible for cooling - not warming.  
I'm one who thinks God is ultimately in control, which puts me at odds with just about all of those "science gurus".  Oh well, Me and Hobby can just keep walking down the same highway, enjoying life and not worrying quite so much.  

I'm reminded of a couple of verses from 2nd Timothy 4: For the time will come when people will not put up with sound doctrine. Instead, to suit their own desires, they will gather around them a great number of teachers to say what their itching ears want to hear. They will turn their ears away from the truth and turn aside to myths.

Now, each of us has to decide what is truth and what is the myth.  - Oh - and this thread has much to do with marketing and growing crops so i think it's on the right page. 🙂  

[NewAgJudge]

3020 and Hobbylobbyfarmer, we know you are the go-to guys for all things twisted.  Most of us just want to live in a world where grown ups don't try to play expert at what they're not trained in, and recognise the expertise of the world's scientific academies who are all in agreement on this.

Hint: If you have a different conclusion than the world's academies of science on a scientific question, you are probably the one who is wrong.

[jennys_mn]

Notice, I have said nothing about humans in what I've been writing.  The long and the short - it's immaterial.  What's important - How much CO2 do we have, are there affects from it, and can we change it by todays technology?  

The greenhouse gasses in our atmosphere are increased by many means.  We are burning fuels that the sun produced and hid away eons ago, and doing so we are releasing once again all the greenhouse gasses that were locked away in those fuels.  Currently, man's activities produces about 10 billion metric tons of CO2 a year.  Roughly 1/4 is used by our plants, 1/4 is absorbed by the oceans, and the other 1/2 is put into the atmosphere.  

Many of the topics that look at global warming, again, only look at the world's temperature.  And that is what's misleading.  Without the discussion of what the sun is doing at the same time as the temperature is being looked at, it's useless information.  Combine those - long term - temps with the suns - long term - output, now, and only now, do you have a basis for discussion.  

Jen

[ECIN]

I'm not sure here 3020 and Hobbylobbyfarmer but I think that the NAJ is say'n' your FOS - but I could be wrong , lol

BTW Jen - Good job of stiring the pot on a cold snowy day .

[Hobbyfarmer]

This planet has been warming for 10,000ish years. It is what it does. Then it cools down, it is what it does. The cycle has repeted many times. We as a species have been here a very short time in the life of the planet. This not about anything but a money grab.

Just a few dozen decades ago ALL the "educated" ones thought the Sun, and stars revolved around the earth. How'd that work out for them?

All of the productive times on this planet have come in the warmer cycles. NOT ONE has happened in the ice ages. All of our fossel fuels that keep us going and warm are the result of the warm/hot times.

You have been dupped by faulty data and people with an agenda. It is all about a money grab. Use some non biased thinking skills. Quit starting out with a conclusion and working backwards to make it fit.

As far as moving north, PASS... the snow still hasn't all melted here yet in SOUTH Podunk Country, NO desire to try NORTH Podunk country. I am really too far north as it is. There is a location 6ish miles SW from here that has had 11 glacial horizons identified. Yep might just be too far north right now.

[jennys_mn]

One of the things that I came up with years ago in looking at this, came about because of the ice cores from Greenland.  One of the cores was being questioned, because the core showed that in a matter of years, not even decades, the earth cooled to a level that resulted in an ice age event.  I'm not predicting an Ice Age here.  Listen to what I am saying.  

1.  Our level of greenhouse gas in the atmosphere is already at alarming levels.

2.  Our suns solar magnetic fields are weakening - I need to do more research here to try to figure out how long a duration event this might be.  In my opinion, from what I know now - it will be a while before we return to a - I hate to use the word here - NORMAL magnetic field.  Let's use this instead - stronger magnetic field.  

3.  Because we are at a time in the solar cycle with a weakening magnetic field, we have less activity on the sun, and less solar radiation bombarding the Earth - hence, lower temperatures.  it's like comparing a 25 watt bulb that you can unscrew hot, vs a 100 watt bulb (incandescent) that you burn your had on.  In a nutshell, our star is giving us a bit less heat, which, when we're growing corn, is everything.

4.  When the magnetic fields again increase, and we kick up the solar radiation a notch, is when we could have the largest issues of global warming.  This could be next year, it could be in 40 years.   If I was going to bet a stake on something long term, it would be land in the northern areas that I spoke about earlier.  But this is a play for your grandchildren.

There it is.  That simple.  I see the south still having an increasingly hard time in maintaining the yields that they are, because of heat and drought.  Yet, right now, I see the Northern tier having issues with the cold that I've been talking about for a while.  The winner in this for now - East of the Mississippi, and North - Northern, IL, Very S. WI, IN, OH.  The winners long term - North of where I just mentioned.  The losers long term - anywhere south of Central IL.

Jen