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Global weather market

A new report yesterday from a global panel on climate change seems to suggest we may be arriving at a place where agricultural markets increasingly will be influenced by weather extremes. (A total of 220 authors from 62 countries worked on the report, which drew information from 18,784 outside experts and comments.) Conclusions from the Intergovernmental Panel included:


* Heat waves and warm spells are on the increase.


* Heavy rains are on the rise in many parts of the world.


* Drought length and intensity is increasing in large parts of the world, including central North America.


There is a lot of discussion about the levels of confidence possible about the various findings, but the amount of scientific detail is unprecedented, according to the authors.


One of the conclusions is that the most effective strategies to cope with weather extremes are those with "low regrets," meaning that they "yield benefits across a wide range of climate futures."  I'm not sure what that means exactly. But, it's maybe useful to think about what farmers must do to manage crop production--and marketing--amid more weather extremes.


Less tillage, more insurance, drought-tolerant hybrids, improved marketing strategies?





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3 Replies

Re: Global weather market



Brave of you to bring that up.


Hope you don't get too many cancellations.

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Honored Advisor

Re: Global weather market

In no particular order"


I really do not think the weather is more anything right now than it has been for the last 4000 years or so...

 it is just better known on a world wise basis average. The other thing that exacerbates it is the world demand due to the population.


We are in an interglacial period or cycle ... Sooner or later the earth will get warmer or cooler, the poles will flip etc Our idea of normal is a man made concoction or definition based on a VERY narrow window of records of observation.


The Mayans and Anisazi  are two peoples that over ran the environment and technology of their times and vanished as an organized civilization. We will not be immune to these fluxes of the Earth's weather.


As far as insurance goes I believe it is a short lived thing also (relatively speaking) . Who or what will want to or can continually subsidize a loosing proposition?


Million dollar Quarters of land and $200,000+ tractors to farm them on less than $6.00 corn will not work.


We are rushing head first into a correction of some kind ... I just am not sure which way it will correct... but I guess downward.


Some time after QE 5 or 6 there will be ....?


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Re: Global weather market

Yeah, I don't know.


But approaching it on an intuitive basis it doesn't seem incredible to me that when you're releasing a few million years worth of sequestered carbon every year it might have an impact.


I was vaguely interested in some of the university stuff around here and there about helping farmers deal with climate change (translation:means that USDA had some grant money for that) my initial reaction was, sure, teach 'em to grow bananas in Indiana.


But seriously, I don't think there is a lot to be done. If I were a seed salesman you think I'm going to get anywhere by telling somebody that they ought to spread their maturites farther (and give up 5 bpa average yield potential)? All I'd do is lose business and I could be so wrong- heck, next year might be a great one. If there's anything happening it is much too big for any of us.


So in a lot of ways I've concluded that ignoring it all isn't necessarily a bad personal decision, even if things ultimately turn out badly.


Which they actually do from time to time in history.

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