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Senior Contributor

Re: Doubts on Russian crop

Pritch, the very fact that you equate a headline with the affect on night trade is the indicator that you do not understand what I've said. It reflects what you think. Not the same.

 

If you're in wheat, especially if your market is the Pacific Rim, as mine is, and Aussie varieties compete head on with yours - you pay attention to what is going on in Australia. The Aussie crop isn't the be all and end all in the wheat world, but it is very important this year, and knowing what is going on there right now is important to marketing. Right now the trend is rain in the east, and much of the wheat in Queensland has already been damaged. NSW is the heart of their wheat country. Since weather trends can be very strong in the Australian region, if the trend continues thenit is more important than whether Chicago reacts. I count on the CBOT NOT to react immediately if the trend continues. So, the weathermen could be wrong. I will be watching for the trend to continue or change.

 

Marketing wheat is like counting cards for me. No one card makes the game. Knowing exactly how the cards have fallen, and what potential is left becomes invaluable. Playing averages is fine. I think counting cards gives you the edge. Takes more concentration. But at some point you know how it is going to play out and then one can take advantage of the facts. The last 4 years have been crazy good for counting cards.

 

 

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Veteran Contributor

Re: Doubts on Russian crop

wheat is up 25 - good call.

counting cards is a good anology.

 

the mkt reads weather et al.

 

"it is important", only to the bull side?  you are a mono thinker 

if aussie land loses 4 NNT will we be OK?

 

index length takses supply off teh mkt, someone coems to get it and pays up,

relative to pre index days. but it dies come out.

 

wheta is not  capital asset,it is a persihable.

 

artifice

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Veteran Contributor

Re: Doubts on Russian crop

French Farmers May Sow Most Wheat Since at Least 1988  - endless

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Senior Contributor

Re: Doubts on Russian crop

In a way you are right. I'm a mono thinker. I'm a producer that has a crop to sell and I'm going to sell it at the best prices I think the market is going to offer in the near, medium and far future. And I have to collect information and make judgements about the direction of the markets in order to do that. Collecting that info is a lifetime hobby that compliments my need to sell product. I do believe time spent building an information trapline can be an invaluable asset. Learning the policies, politics and histories of countries regarding food policy is also a huge advantage in determining how countries react to grain commodies.

 

A spec can take both sides of the market and doesn't have to deal with the time, logistics or decisions related to producing crops. I'm not a spec.

 

I do point out what I think are positive trends because the rest of the market does such a good job of pointing out the negative trends. The market usually starts with the assumption of better than average production with little regard to the risks to that outlook. Down grades are usually understated and late. As a producer I can usually be aware of the likely affect of negative factors that arise some time before the market grabs hold of it. I work to keep that advantage. In the digital/internet age the field is essentially level for those who are interested and spend time gathering the data that is essentially free and can fairly easily be corroborated.

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