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BA Deere
Honored Advisor

Gloom and Doom

Now don`t shoot the messenger, I want to be Bullish but I think we all ought to listen to Chip Flory talking to Glen Ring on these markets.  It starts at oh about 15 minutes.  Glen Ring says that the only thing he`s bullish on is "puts"  major bottoms come in 2016 and are apt to move sideways until the 2020`s.   I`ll say flat out that I hope he`s wrong, but still he needs to be heard. he isn`t one of those "happy bears" that capitalize off of other`s misery, he is just flat out warning us.

 

 http://www.agweb.com/market-rally/ 

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32 Replies
ihtractortherap
Senior Contributor

Re: Gloom and Doom

Doubt Glen Ring knows anymore than the rest of us. Tell me what the weather will be, what the dollar will be and what the politicians will do and Ill tell you what the markets will do
sw363535
Honored Advisor

Re: Gloom and Doom

BA I had a banker ask me what I thought crude would do when the storage gets full next month --- it was a big story in the local paper yesterday and noted on this board.   His question was," there is talk of $20 crude in the coming months.  Do you think grains will follow?"

 

 

 

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r3020
Senior Advisor

Re: Gloom and Doom

If I thought crude would be $20 in the coming months I certainly wouldn't be filling my storage now.

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roarintiger1
Honored Advisor

Re: Gloom and Doom

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bXysRO11Xi8

 

There, I fixed it for you.  Now you have a theme song for your title.    Smiley Frustrated

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BA Deere
Honored Advisor

Re: Gloom and Doom

Roarin`, now we know what we can do with our Ethanol  Smiley Very Happy

 

SW, this isn`t my orginial thought, but oil could go to $20 and gasoline wouldn`t go down.  The idea is all the storage is full and producers have to keep pumping to maintain fixed costs. Refiners have plenty supply with no reason to lower gas prices.  A example of the principle is in 1994 and 1998 when hogs got cheap...pork in the supermarket wasn`t cheap, yet packers were full of shackle space and paying 8¢/lb for all the live hogs they wanted.

 

With Ethanol the e-85 has to be 50¢ cheaper than regular unleaded for incentive for the customer to use.  You can bet if the oil industry is dealing with a glut of cheap oil, they will make a full-court press against renewable fuels out of self preservation.  They`ve always treated Ethanol as a red headed step child, even during their good times.

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Hobbyfarmer
Honored Advisor

Re: Gloom and Doom

Is that why Valero Energy bought most of Vera Sun?

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BA Deere
Honored Advisor

Re: Gloom and Doom

I don`t know, Vera Sun was broke and could be bought at a profitable price.  Farmers got it going with their capital then Valero jumped on it .  At the time, 2009 ethanol was the answer, talk of "peak oil".

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roarintiger1
Honored Advisor

Re: Gloom and Doom

BA,  Gotta refill those jugs with something!

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elcheapo
Veteran Advisor

Re: Gloom and Doom

Here regular gas cheaper than etoh blend.
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