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Contributor

Go Long!

Looks like we're setting ourselves up for another exciting week at the CME group.  We lost a few cents off of COZ which makes me think we're setting up for a rally on the 9th.  What are you're opinions- are you going long on COZ or are you rolling into the mar'11 contracts and are you going long or short?

 

Looks like there will be some tremendous opportunities in wheat next year too- good time to be in production ag...or a speculator.

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8 Replies
Veteran Contributor

Re: Go Long!

sold

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Senior Contributor

Re: Go Long!

Tell me about the opportunities in wheat you are talking about. And tell me the costs and risks of 'capitalizing' on those opportunities you are thinking about. And why is it that a few cents loss makes you think one should go long in corn - and what specifically are you talking about in terms of capitalizing on that.

 

Otherwise I might think you are fishing.

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Contributor

Re: Go Long!

Wheat chats never put highs in like the way the charts suggest.  Worldwide wheat shortages in conjunction with almost contract high soybean, corn, and cotton prices means that wheat is going to have to compete not only globally but also domestically for acres in crop year 2011.  Although I strongly suggest each follow his or her own intuition regarding a marketing plan for their business, I think that right now, if you are naturally long, you need to sell only if you need income- otherwise hold on to that as I feel that we will see higher highs after nov. 9. and into the new year.  Regarding the few cents loss that we experienced today, the market seems to be backing down for a rally, once again, examining the charts, corn will more than likely not top the way the chart looks now...I would expect an island top for corn.  The few cents we lost are most likely due to rolling out Dec'10 contracts into mar'11, and the resultant sells have brought down the dec price a little.  Basically, I'm thinking one should hold onto their physical commodity, especially if they are a good percentage sold already.  However if you happen to be 0% sold, I would maybe look at some sales in an attempt to hedge your positions.  This is coming down to, and will continue to come down to a classic acreage battle into at least january when some crop plans begin to become more solidified with the booking of inputs...of course most of these views are just my opinions so take them for what they're worth.  Right now in terms of marketing, the only costs you face are the opportunity costs if the market goes higher-  there isn't too much risk in selling as I'd hope your profit structure doesnt count on $6 corn.  As for holding on to it, there are some risks of a tremendous price fall, because I believe that once the huge speculators get out, we're going to see a pretty steep decline pretty fast.

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Senior Contributor

Re: Go Long!

I wouldn't disagree with most you've said.

 

I'm ambivelent about the effect of money getting out. Volatility? Maybe. Fireworks for corn, if there's going to be more, would very likely occur in January and February as we start getting a better idea of year end inventory and demand (including exports). But physical demand/inventory will be king, and futures can do whatever they please.

 

 

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Advisor

Re: Go Long!

This scenario sounds like another January high for the year.  At least until weather scares in June.

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Frequent Contributor

Re: Go Long!

No offense, but shadowy internet characters with short track records and names like Pro Trader Ag Trader Darth Trader etc etc. pronouncing that the Market looks bullish after a 30% runup in prices give me the shakes like a 3 day bender.

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Contributor

Re: Go Long!

good analogy...but everyone has to join at some point...

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Veteran Contributor

Re: Go Long!

Good point.

 

Trends are strong except wheat, but at toimes it looks teh the marklet TRADES

the advisors, instead of 

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