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John From S. MN.
Frequent Contributor

Good Chance Dec corn saw it's low....

......last week at 5.12........ 91 million acres of corn will not cut. (what it looks like we might get now). Than throw in another estimated 1 million acres lost in Iowa already. We could be looking at 10 million less acres than some pundits were talking in January. WE probly won't go striaght up. But with the lack of corn acres and horrible forecast, it is darn safe bet the lows are in......is this year 4 or 5 in a row with major calamities in the US corn production?.....JP

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12 Replies
roarintiger1
Honored Advisor

Re: Good Chance Dec corn saw it's low....

Watchout!   The market analyst bears are lurking and may disagree.  USDA and Glauber is still looking for a 2 billion bushel carryover number for corn.   Hakuna matata......

 

I happen to agree with you.    Smiley Happy

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c-x-1
Veteran Advisor

Re: Good Chance Dec corn saw it's low....

Did you see "chart of the week for sw" I posted yesterday?---pretty clearcut!

 

I have read that Corn in the V6 or younger stage can survive in flooded or saturated soils up to 4 days IF the temperature remains BELOW 77* farenheit...................

 

Most of the corn in main part of the belt falls in the pre-V6 category...........US could have a REAL disaster on hand which could make last year's drought reduced production look like a bin buster IMHO.

 

my heart goes out to EVERYONE who's being affected by this!

 

I believe mkt is currently in a state of shock or "deer in the headlights"..........but by next week reality will start in.

 

 

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Mike M2692830
Senior Contributor

Re: Good Chance Dec corn saw it's low....

John, good to see you back again. You suggest 10 million acres of corn not planted. Some will switch to beans and some will take pp. it is my understanding that a pp acre cannot be farmed so if it is more economical to pp that corn acre then it's not going to be a bean acre. Kinda hurts both ways. Down here in the center of the universe we are a week away from the field if it would stop raining right now....MikeM
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iowastateisgreat
Contributor

Re: Good Chance Dec corn saw it's low....

Holy cow!!!

 

All this crazy weather brings back S MN John from the cyber grave.

 

Good to see you back. This place hasn't been the same since you left.

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John From S. MN.
Frequent Contributor

Re: Good Chance Dec corn saw it's low....

Not Exactly Mike. By late March, the early exuberance by the pundits of maybe 99-100 million corn acres, became  96.5. Right now there is 13.6 million unplanted corn acres. If the northern Cornbelt acres do not get planted now, because of too wet and then too late. Maybe about 91 million gets planted. Less the million acres lost last week in Iowa flooding and ponding. We end up with only around 90 million planted acres.......Not enough, even with decent final yields. Now if we start seeing the planted acres conditions poorer than average we get really tight. I Do not know yet what my 2 inch yellow corn will yield. But I doubt it even makes the old-time Minnesota saying knee high by the 4th of July. I hope Global warming kicks in and heats it up so this crop that is planted develops properly and beats the fall frosts. We lose more yield in Minnesota from cold and wet, than we ever do from Hot and Dry. I enough moisture in my soil at this time to make a 200 bu yield, but I need the heat units, otherwise I may end up with 150bu of light wet corn (which is a crop failure here). As far as corn acres to beans? I suppose if they can get the corn in in the next week or so and they do not lose all their crop insurance on corn for late planting some south of us will go plant corn, just late and with less insurance. But if they switch to beans that beats prevented plant if they can get those in before the Insurance deadline of June 10th here and in Iowa, I believe. But the chance of getting all 13.6 million corn acres planted has already passed and it is not only very wet in many fields the 10 day forecasts are wet wet wet......All adds up in my book, to well supported Dec Futures and maybe even quite a bit higher if this bad situation moves to worse....I sure would not want to be a spec short......JP

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425Cat
Advisor

Re: Good Chance Dec corn saw it's low....

CX Just wait until July and Aug when the big heat blows up  during pollination. There is something to these sun spot cycles.

Hey where is Time/ Ken

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vrbuck
Advisor

Re: Good Chance Dec corn saw it's low....

either scenario will drop yield from here on out.  If it is a 93 we get hit with an early frost, if it is 96 we get hit with an early frost.  The difference is if we crank the heat up and let it burn or lower the heat so it doesn't mature.  I have warned enough people since last fall that the year ends with a 3, and we have a 60 streak where poor crops happen when the year ends with a 3.  I have tried telling people this is the year to crank up your insurance coverage and protect yourself from a poor crop.  And no I am not always bearish, if you have read me long enough.

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c-x-1
Veteran Advisor

Re: Good Chance Dec corn saw it's low....

cat,vr,

 

 sun activity is supposed to bring the heat in J/A ---if so, the root system won't be as hearty to take the stress.

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Shaggy98
Senior Advisor

Re: Good Chance Dec corn saw it's low....

Putting you on the spot here buck, how much did you elevate your insurance? No need to talk in $/A, just percentages. Don't take that the wrong way, I'm not trying to pick on you. I didn't take out extra insurance this year, but I've been very fortunate, I actually increased all my coverage by 10% last year and the timing couldn't have been better. Unfortunate part was that I had a claim on every crop I planted, winter wheat, sorghum and corn.
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