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Veteran Contributor
Posts: 485
Registered: ‎09-20-2018
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Re: Good Day For The Farmers

I did not say I am short 1 million bushels at $3.60. 

 

I am short 60% of what I wanted to sell, and my average price now is around $3.72. 30% were shorted between $3.60 and $3.70, 30% between $3.75 and $3.80. If we get to $3.85-$3.95 I will sell another 30%, saving 10% for a move above $4. If we break above $4.1225, then I know I am wrong and will get out, maybe even reverse. My downside targets begin at $3.30. 

 

I have a self-assigned position limit of 1000 contracts, so you can do the math from here. The objective is a target short at around $3.80 so that I am risking about 35 cents to make at least 50 cents.

Veteran Contributor
Posts: 99
Registered: ‎06-14-2018
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Re: Good Day For The Farmers

I like it ray. Thanks for speaking about your position and strategy. 

Advisor
Posts: 1,473
Registered: ‎06-25-2010
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Re: Good Day For The Farmers

Just thinking why you did not take the path of least resistance when entering the market and buy around 3.55 and now be in this position where you are scaling to improve your average price?
Veteran Contributor
Posts: 485
Registered: ‎09-20-2018
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Re: Good Day For The Farmers

[ Edited ]

I look at the overall trend, and then look for regions to get on board that trend. If the trend is down, I don't buy. I wait for regions where a counter-trend is most likely to reverse, and then get on board. Same when a market is in an uptrend, I look for the most likely regions where buyers will appear in a counter-trend to get on board the train. I find that the best trades are when your position is going in the same direction as the overall trend, so I don't try to fight that. As a result, the positions I take are few, but they are of high probability. I look for big moves so that I don't need to put on large numbers of contracts nor risk a large portion of my capital on any one trade. The more times you roll the dice, the larger the risk...so I try to make as few rolls as possible.

Veteran Contributor
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Registered: ‎09-20-2018
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Re: Good Day For The Farmers

You're welcome.

Advisor
Posts: 1,473
Registered: ‎06-25-2010
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Re: Good Day For The Farmers

For what?
Veteran Contributor
Posts: 99
Registered: ‎06-14-2018
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Re: Good Day For The Farmers

I think he was responding the Thank you separate because it was addressed to me Gio. 

 

-FT

Advisor
Posts: 1,473
Registered: ‎06-25-2010
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Re: Good Day For The Farmers

Ok
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Veteran Contributor
Posts: 485
Registered: ‎09-20-2018
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Re: Good Day For The Farmers

Precisely correct, I was saying you're welcome to FT's message of thanks.