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Honored Advisor

Good crop of reports and predictions

As usual, in the month of February, we have harvested a near record number of reports of expectation.   

It is the time of year when an opinion is all that matters.  Tradition and expectation give the trading public strength to carry on.

 

It is the "Groundhog Day Effect".  Where the tradition of squinting Sciuirdae, rises from its hybernation in the eastern part of the US to soooooth the souls of all who fear hunger, or a sense of reality, and give its annual promise of abundance for all.  Actually there are two promise possibilities--------abundance for all, or massive over abundance for all--------------------

If massive over abundance for all is the more likely report,  then of course we can all go back to sleep and be assured that rodent self esteme is what is important.  

 

 

 

 

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20 Replies
Honored Advisor

Re: Good crop of reports and predictions

Hey SW, I get Larry Acker`s newsletter he is pegging 2013 corn at 12.35 billion bushel on 93 million acres and 3.15 billion bu beans on 78 million ac. He comes up with these figures based on `very dry subsoils` and a challenging growing season ahead. 

 

Last yr he thought corn production would be 12.95 billion bu, calling for the dry yr we had, but he predicted a "cool growing season" that part he had missed. I did get antsy and foreward sell beans last summer buying into the Bad News Bears rhetoric, even if we do have a short crop sometimes the Bears can get their way Smiley Happy

 

I don`t want to give much of Larry`s newsletter away, but he sounds very similar to this guy that made his predictions public. They both are "sunspot and Dalton Cycle" watchers.

http://solarcycle24com.proboards.com/index.cgi?board=globalwarming&action=display&thread=2065   Alot of this "global warming" business I think can be boiled down to sunspots and undersea volcanoes.

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Senior Advisor

Re: Good crop of reports and predictions

I've got a buddy that used to send me FFF newsletters, I told him to keep them. Larry is good at filling ball rooms and selling $19.95 seminar seats, but predictions are lacking. He is definitely a bull, but take his farming advice with a grain of salt. I can't remember if it was 2012 or 2011, but predicted a cool and wet growing season for my area. Had one of the hottest July's on record. Typical market guru. His newsletter is good for a $100 laugh though, I wouldn't walk across the street to watch him speak for free.
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Honored Advisor

Re: Good crop of reports and predictions

Hey Shaggy say what you will, but exactly one year ago when pert-near every guru and his brother was talking "15 billion bushel corn crop and +2 billion carry-over and corn with a 3 in front of it", Larry Acker was one of a handful lone-wolves saying "No way!".  Many that listened to the bad news bears had to deliver "$4.80 corn" last fall and were sweating bullets that they weren`t oversold. Same sing-song that`s going on right now.

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Veteran Advisor

Re: Good crop of reports and predictions

   So Acker's talking about 144 bpa yield....pretty middle of the road. Wow, gottta say it again, sarcasticly of course,------all these "genius" talking heads..........where did they get their earth shaking, Nobel prize quality educations?Smiley LOL 

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Senior Advisor

Re: Good crop of reports and predictions

Even a broken watch is correct twice a day.Smiley Very Happy

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Honored Advisor

Re: Good crop of reports and predictions

Some of these gurus are wrong ALL the time.....no scatch that, they are batting 1,000 if they work for the endusers. I mean they are currently 0 and 5 over the last 5 yrs and still have the testicular fortitude to ask $300/yr or more for this wonderful advice. Oh they'll get you in the top 20%, but you'll go broke buying options that expire worthless to cover their arse.
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Senior Advisor

Re: Good crop of reports and predictions

Hey, FFF is a good read, but when it gets right down to the nut cutting, it is only the opinion of one man.  His financial and weather forecasts (for the most part) are interesting.  He has been saying silver was going to match gold for what now 5 maybe 10 years?  He completely missed the Central US forecast last year, his so called super computer (whatever that may be) has been down now for what 2 or 3 years?  His $100/year newsletter was about 6-9 months behind schedule when I quit reading them.  Is he caught back up to current yet?  He is an analyst, he will say whatever his paying audience wants to hear as long as they keep subscribing.

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Frequent Contributor

Re: Good crop of reports and predictions

Being an ag advisor must be a little bit like a weatherman, even when you are wrong you still have a job!  For those who farm and market their crops it really comes down to two things:  How much moisture we have and will receive during the growing season and how hot will the summer time temperatures get and will stay.  Last year all we could read was we would get buried by the mega crops coming in and most of us know who that worked out.  Most of us are children of our parents: Father Time and Mother Nature and things will come out the way they dictate not the other way around!  It all comes down to just know how much it costs you and don't be afraid to sell at a profit.  I am still looking for an ag expert who will eat all of the cost when they are wrong and only charge 10% of the profit when they are correct! :smileyhappy:

Senior Advisor

Re: Good crop of reports and predictions

Interesting thought Sillinoisfarmer, let me know when you find that broker.  I am most definitely interested as well.

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