I didn't exit puts and slept well tonight. Guess I should even if this bounce turns out to have legs but would no doubt feel some regret.
Still have a count open to new lows in both C and S and I'd have a higher regret factor if I lifted early and was wrong.
The buzz now is about stocks/export projection for soys basically taking back the stocks gain. Assuming an OK SA crop, that seems to imply stocks building in China, and I can't possibly claim to know and am skeptical of those who think the do. Oil World knows more than most and they think the opposite although that's far from a consensus.
Still think the bean crop will be a big record if it gets harvested, and it usually does.
BTW, the USDA punching bag is in a no win situation as far as pleasing farmers. If they come in bullish they'll be stealing insurance payments and if they're at all bearish they're obviously lying. I'm inclined to think they're just working through the process as always.
I try to follow my dictum which is to say that if you're complaining about USDA then look in the mirror because it probably means your positioing was wrong.
Although it is like at Forum where People Who Have Done Everything Right are always victims of something.
