Good thing the bottom
Good thing the bottom I forcasted and called held. Good thing I got booted from ag talk because they didnt think I contributed to the page. Oh well, I followed through and put my money where my mouth is. I bought calls and sold puts, as is sold corn puts and bought bean calls at the bottom. I dont suspect we will have a run away bull market, just a trading range. We should hold the lows until the october insurance pricing period is over. I wonder whos money is being used to prop up grain prices for the short term, government or private.
Re: Good thing the bottom
It probably wouldn`t take alot of money ...relatively...in the scheme of things to move the grain markets. Maybe the funds are sneaking in quietly? Everything is below C.O.P it`s a buy, not to say that the market cares, but it is cheap.
Re: Good thing the bottom
I didn't exit puts and slept well tonight. Guess I should even if this bounce turns out to have legs but would no doubt feel some regret.
Still have a count open to new lows in both C and S and I'd have a higher regret factor if I lifted early and was wrong.
The buzz now is about stocks/export projection for soys basically taking back the stocks gain. Assuming an OK SA crop, that seems to imply stocks building in China, and I can't possibly claim to know and am skeptical of those who think the do. Oil World knows more than most and they think the opposite although that's far from a consensus.
Still think the bean crop will be a big record if it gets harvested, and it usually does.
BTW, the USDA punching bag is in a no win situation as far as pleasing farmers. If they come in bullish they'll be stealing insurance payments and if they're at all bearish they're obviously lying. I'm inclined to think they're just working through the process as always.
I try to follow my dictum which is to say that if you're complaining about USDA then look in the mirror because it probably means your positioing was wrong.
Although it is like at Forum where People Who Have Done Everything Right are always victims of something.
quite a few months ago, I posted my thoughts on how to survive this downturn in the ag economy
by cutting expenses to the bone, trying to get the COP under $4 and $10 for corn and soybeans
respectively, and waiting for an opportunity to price grain and stay in business. That opportunity
came and went, and hopefully many took advantage.
I also asked for the strategy to use puts and calls to be laid out in a simlar fashion to show us
what the blueprint would be ensure the $4 and $10 prices , and not simply waste precious equity
dollars. I never saw the response...maybe I missed it?