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Senior Advisor

Re: Egyptian contract to be honored for January.

"The old work rule---- the folks doing the work build economies."

 

Though I wouldn't fault the Chinese work ethic you can't overlook the liberal economic policies, pent up demand, government favoritism and liquidity provided in the Chinese economy. India has been growing at a good clip over the years but the government gridlock of politics and corruption from the top have been a real drag - limiting their growth.

 

Innefficient government will limit economic development. We could take a lesson.

 

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Honored Advisor

Re: Egyptian contract to be honored for January.

Thanks Palouser,

For some clarification.  It may not be such a political issue ---as it is social and work ethic issues.   There are just problems with the other 4 that limit their growth....problems that will not go away --- possibly for decades 

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Senior Advisor

Re: Egyptian contract to be honored for January.

We may be developing problems that may increasingly limit our growth. Increasing lust for power and using extreme partisanship that lower our governing efficiency would be a likely way to slow our economy due to both capital and social friction.

 

In India there aren't enough jobs. It's common to see work done innefficiently because labor costs are low and jobs few. Like three men sharing one pick to dig up asphalt for a service line across a road. They work hard and share a demanding job for little money. It's acceptable and even encouraged to share work with others when a job that pays cash (maybe) becomes available. The little cash is distributed through work. It works where jobs are scarce.

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Senior Contributor

Re: Egyptian contract to be honored for January.

Our problems with growth limitation are the opposite.  People get paid not to work so no one picks up the pick.  Also senseless government regulation, big government ineffeciency and coruption doesn't help. 

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Honored Advisor

Re: Egyptian contract to be honored for January.

SW, partial reply...

 

The BRIC alliance has momentum, 

 

China just surpassed the USA in gnp and isn't done yet.

Russia has no where to go but up, this collapse they are having is a wake up call, will not be overnight but they have potential that will take a while.

I don't believe they will stay a one trick pony for ever.

 

India is a giant with a smart trainable workforce.

 

Brazil keeps flirting with socialism, BUT they have been developing a world class manufacturing sector. I have seen castings that take a semi, or train car to haul. Gears made there that are on Timpkin bearings three foot in internal dia. They shipped them here to be assembled into wind turbines. A very quality product.

 

They are also only maybe 50% developed on the agricultural front. More row crop every year and livestock and possessing increasing exponentially. (Value added) 

 

Even Warren Buffett partnered with a Brazilian company to buy out Hienz 57. Do not underestimate Brazil. (Largest  cattle meat packer is from where?)

 

It's late and I need a little sleep, we are closer to peaked out than three of the four mentioned above. JMHO 

 

 

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Senior Advisor

Re: Egyptian contract to be honored for January.

I think we have more potential than any, though not as much pent up demand for material goods or diet. The same COULD be said for Germany but they are one of the top 3 exporters in the world, much of it high tech, with a highly trained and stable workforce.

 

But our domestic policies are no longer supporting the middle class. I believe one of our favorite whipping boys is our middle class, and I think our prejudices cripple us. And I don't see us getting our act together soon.

 

I find it a sweet irony that we think our subsidized ag is exempt from the 'corrosive' effects of federal and state policy protections while everyone else is lazy because of it. Perhaps it's fear. But we better get over the cheap political comedy and and get things figured out. Our opportunity to get over adolescent schoolyard thinking and build a better economy won't last forever.

Honored Advisor

Re: Egyptian contract to be honored for January.

With ya Palouser for the most part.  Race is the one issue that we differ on.  Politics just keeps the term alive and the "paid characters" dance when told.  Outside politics race issues are hard to find.  Poverty issues and lifestyle issues of choice are hard to ignore but race is a tool.

And there is that US  potential issue.  As in Farming debt limits opportunity,  same will hold true for the US.  Currently the only job growth we have requires more Federal debt----- that is not growth

 

Agriculture is changing from lifestyle to an industry of larger businesses.  Will loose the willingness to work for independence and scenery.

 

Middle class is being taxed out of existance.  The idea that we have an endless potential to pay taxes is raising the poverty line and destroying incentive.

There are locations where the monthly share of the annual property tax bill is blocking housing sales.

 

 

Hobby,

 

Thanks

Russia is the one i see potential growth in, but IMO it requires the reunification of a few former neighbors --- The industry in ukraine will take a long time to reconstruct in another location.  I honestly was a little shocked that it didn't happen quickly.  Ukraine's politics was a joke .

 

Governence is the issue on all 4 other than china.  India has that social system (similar to SA) where "We" the chosen ones, do not recognize 80% of the countries population as anything of substance.  Class status somewhere below the shovel.  Decades and generations to fix.  Sooner or later growth has to benefit the worker to build economy.  Won't be allowed.

SA had to change and did ----- straight to Kingdom socialism ---- no growth there.

 

Brazil, I reconsider, -------still a governmental problem, the second largest ag producer in the world --- in name only--- most production is still financed and developed by foreign investment.  

 

US ------ drowning in debt but still has resources and an education base outside the major cities.

 

China ------ The potential to fill all voids and keep growing.  Willing to grow a middle class.  Don't see anything blocking them.  

 

 

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Honored Advisor

Re: Egyptian contract to be honored for January.

South Africa will be closer to a Zimbabwe out come than a China one.

 

Russia has one very glaring problem... an effective negative birth rate.  Also something like 25% of their men die in their early fifties or sooner from complications of alcohol consumption.   Hope eternal has been extinguished there.

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Veteran Contributor

Re: Egyptian contract to be honored for January.

Russia doesn't have negative birth rate like in the past this past year Russia had positive birthrate this is change for them. I was watching C-pan book author explaining Russia and Putin in book he had written about Russia and he told that Russia had gone to positive birth rate. He talked also that under Putin has more than doubled oil output and this has been done under easy way for drillng for oil and it seems that Russia could grow even more yet this way.Also Russia has natural resources for the whole world and will be a big player in future. They are big supplier for uranium in world for and are also able to refine it to useable material for nuclear electrical plants. The Ukraine is about Russian desire to control there natural resources and cost of delivering resources to Europe. Also it gives them warm weather port both economics and military reasons. Also several other economic reasons why Russia want to control the Ukraine. Contrary to what people are thinking economics are driving reasons behind Russia's moves to aquiring the Ukraine and i do believe were going to see countries going to war to take over other parts of countries. I think this is going to happen especially now when the US is seen weak and limited in what its response will be. I expect China to push us on this in the near future. Also were going to see shifting of control of lands in the Mid-east to different parties in next few years. The world has gotten alot less safe with US weakening as a nation and i believe will get worse because the US has long ways to go to get it ship righted financially and politically.

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Senior Advisor

Re: Egyptian contract to be honored for January.

I see few nations I interpret as seeing the US as weak in terms of power and influence globally. In fact, I think the list of countries that have recently learned how powerful we are is growing lately. I DO believe we have squandered resources and allies at times due to poor judment and we have luckily not gotten challenged at the worst of times.

 

On the other hand the idea of a single super power pulling strings to achieve only acceptable outcomes (that would be us) is long gone due to global development and trade based on open markets. We've NEVER had that power in many areas of the world in which we have influence now. The strength to impose outcomes was/is a pipedream - and a dangerous line of thought if you don't want to have more wrecks like the Middle East.

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