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Honored Advisor

Got wheat?

might not be as awash as first told we were?  Btw what % of bird poop is ok?



Russia’s grain exports ‘stop’ amid concerns



Russia’s main wheat buyers are Turkey and Egypt, very vulnerable to distruption. REUTERS Photo

Russia’s main wheat buyers are Turkey and Egypt, very vulnerable to distruption. REUTERS Photo

Russia’s grain exports have stopped due to curbs brought in to protect domestic supply, putting big deals at risk, an influential farm lobby group said Dec. 24.

Russia’s main wheat buyers are Turkey, Iran and, very vulnerable to supply disruption, Egypt.
Moscow imposed informal grain export controls with tougher quality monitoring and limits on railroad loadings earlier this month, as it tackles a financial crisis linked to plunging oil and Western sanctions.

“Since Dec. 18 not a single vessel, which had been due to sail under contracts, has left,” Arkady Zlochevsky, the head of Russia’s Grain Union, the farmers lobby group, said.

“All loadings are suspended, there is only a need to legally formalize it,” Zlochevsky said. Global wheat futures rose after his comments. A spokeswoman for Russian Deputy Prime Minister Arkady Dvorkovich, who had promised to prepare the proposal for an export duty, was not available for comment.

Zlochevsky criticized the decision to impose restrictions for the third time in six years.Russia imposed a duty on wheat exports in 2008 and an official ban in 2010 when a drought hit its crop. The 2010 ban was partially responsible for triggering social unrest and a revolution in Egypt as more than 500,000 tons were not supplied and global prices rose damaging Egypt’s state bread subsidy program, Zlochevsky said.

About 3 million tons of grain due for export until the end of January were now stuck, Zlochevsky said.
As a result, Russia may fail to supply wheat to Egypt’s General Authority for Supply Commodities (GASC), the state buyer of the world’s largest wheat importer, in January, he added.


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29 Replies
Veteran Advisor

Re: Got wheat?

Merry Christmas Hobby and all...


there is a fair amount of confusion regarding the current grain shipping situation out of Russian varies from what the article you posted said, to bans only affecting their lower tier customers, to the story I am linking which says things are proceeding close to normal.......I would expect there to be a strong bias to each group's view of it...


but, net/net, the amount of wheat in the world did not change even if they restrict shipping.....with a fairly adequate world supply, the deck just gets shuffled........but it will provide a short-term tightening and the possibility of higher prices, which we have seen...


end result---a selling opportunity for those with wheat to sell



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Senior Advisor

Re: Got wheat?

I don't have a lot to sell, let's just call em gambling bushels. I've been scale up selling at 25 cent increments. My next target would be $6.75 cash. Disappointing thing is I believe it was well over $7.00 when I harvested it and didn't sell.
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Honored Advisor

Re: Got wheat?

Merry Christmas to you Ray Jenkins.


Your article points our vividly how the flow of information is more important than the flow of wheat or truth.


As we race to attain the level of political leadership exercised in Russia we should remember that whenever someone is quoted, there will seldom be a quote that does not serve the source of the job held.


The more methods of information delivery we have the more illusive truth.



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Senior Contributor

Re: Got wheat?

Yup i got wheat and lots of it unpriced too! I know i know i should have it sold by now but the problem is that its low protien.and in spring wheat country thats a big no no with each point below 14 protien being a dollar discount! So mine is anywhere from 11.5-12.5 depending on where their protien tester is set! Its hard to sell it when you net $3.50-$4.00! Looks like the loan progam will have to work till the discounts relax if they ever do!
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Honored Advisor

Re: Got wheat?

There is no doubt that the amount of wheat in the world changes daily with production and usage.   The amount of wheat available for sale can be wiped out with a stroke of a pen or a gunshot.    Awash in wheat?  Maybe, maybe not.

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Veteran Advisor

Re: Good post, Hobbyfarmer. russia

is in a war.


so is ukraine.


Both are normally fair sized wheat producers.


War is not normal.   that simple.


Both countries will likely have to import grain within a year.


AND with global gdp on average running bout double the 2013 level....there's plenty of dough around.

other countries will buy whatever they want or need ( cost is not near the issue it was in 2013 ).





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Senior Advisor

Very Russian

The economic situation in Russia is changing rapidly.  Because it's a centralized and top down government I've noticed the trend has been for the administering bureaucrats that are the last in the chain of policy, and closest to the countryside, are the last to align with new policy.


The Russian government IS sequestering production. Up til now Egypt was excepted from this policy. I'm guessing the witholding of shipments from Egypt is probably the fact 'now'. Minor bureaucrats wouldn't have the autuority to make a decision like this on their own, meaning that this probably originated from the central government itself. This would extend the trend of trying to stabilize domestic prices as the ruble tumbles and inflation races ahead.


Hpbby's point about the birds is ironic because the central government used the excuse of 'phytosanitary conditions' as the stalking horse on the way to restricting exports. Frankly, it's not believable on those grounds. But the possible threat to wheat production from a hard winter is enough to trigger government action. Domestic food supply could easily be a key to the downfall of the Putin regime in the future and they are signaling they are covering ALL the bases prior to any and all future events.

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Senior Advisor

My one concern

Would it be possible Russia is embargoing grain in preparation for a future military push against Ukraine? That would be a surprise - which is exactly why it comes to mind. Something like that would reveal a Putin so far out of touch with the modern world that he thinks territory and exclusive zones of influence are more important than trade and access to capital for development. It would be a throwback to medieval and imperialist times where physical control trumped modern communications. On the other hand it fits historal Russian thinking all too well.

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Honored Advisor

or maybe?

Your economy is in freefall, your money is less valuable everyday, you are in charge, whatya gonna do?


First priority is to feed the people. Last time there were long bread lines there was a change of leadership.


Their situation is not much different than a lot of us farmers have become.


The number one revenue crop they have is oil/gas, it just went to half price.


Their lesser crops so to speak are wheat and a little corn.


Then gold, silver, and some gems. (Gems are now able to be man made relatively cheaply)


They have been buying some pork and a whole lot of chicken.


Your income just got halved but you still need to eat regularly.


Back to the question... what are you going to do?


They still  have people that remember the starvation times of WW ll AND the bread lines of the 70's and 80's.


Even though Brazil has taken the lions share of the  poultry business they still want paid in a currency of value.


Only a limited need for crates of diamonds and rubies


Those wheat feed pigeons in the picture may be on the menu shortly.


Eastern European nations still value a bushel in the bin as opposed to a forecast of a good crop in a year or two into the future.


The farmer/peasants have always been at the  bottom of the food chain there. 


Yep I might just keep the food home too.