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Honored Advisor

Re: Gotta love the knee jerk reaction

Who started "it"?   Well, there`s a lot of fingerprints on "it" since 1985.  Depends on did "it" start at zero, or did "it" start at $50 Billion?    I can forgive people for being dumb if they don`t have all the facts, but in the case of pork, how many knew China owns Smithfield?  And we they found out did they say "What???  You`re kidding right???  Well, I better change my thinking!"  or did they say "Oh whatever I want cheap junk at Wamart!" 

 

 

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Esteemed Advisor

Re: Gotta love the knee jerk reaction

You gents do realize the reason we make it in China and import it here is because it is cheaper, even after the freght, right? Lots of reasons, their people work for free ours don't. they have few environmental regs while ours are endless.

 

Knee-Jerk, this is just day one I'm afraid. Lean Hogs are down about $30/cwt, or $60 a hog in the last month or so. They are down in price to the equivalent of $7.00 soybeans (% of the high). There seem few reasons that justify $10 beans given the situation.

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Veteran Advisor

Re: Gotta love the knee jerk reaction

uNL  - agreed  Smith field  Sold  OUT  - - - 

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Senior Contributor

Re: Gotta love the knee jerk reaction

If this continues, I suspect that it will mean less available corn and soybeans to feed the Chi Com chickens, pigs, and steers. Which will also mean less available meat for national consumption.

 

On the plus side, the bottom 80% of 1.3 billion Chinese can now look forward to going on a reduced animal centric diet in the upcoming years. This will be a good thing, unless of course you happen to be a disempowered Chinese citizen with a particular craving for prime rib, fried chicken, or stuffed Iowa chops.

 

Pass the rice and bon appetite comrades!

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Veteran Advisor

Re: Gotta love the knee jerk reaction

Our parts and supplies and equipment go UP due
To import tarrif....then our market price goes
DOWN.

Just who are we retaliating against ???
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Veteran Advisor

Re: Gotta love the knee jerk reaction

Traders probably love the volatility, but for producer hedgers, if you already have a position in you can hold it and if you don't you can sell now and cover with a call or wait for seasonals to help bring the market up and sell later.  My sense around the coffee shop is farmers are generally not as panicy as the press and the trade about the China tariff deal.  We'll see.  Time will tell.

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Advisor

Re: Gotta love the knee jerk reaction

US manufacturing output, inflation adjusted, is higher than in 1985. Which is mostly about automation and the outsourcing of lower value stuff.

 

BTW. with a 4.1% headline unemployment rate and broader measures that take in underemployment maybe at 8, plus plans to deport a few million of the workforce.........

 

If we're going to go back to producing a lot of the low value stuff domestically then I'd say that a $15 minimum wage is essential. Gewgaws at Walmart and burgers at McDs will be a bit more expensive, which is OK with me.

 

Version:1.0 StartHTML:000000395 EndHTML:000245809 StartFragment:000244460 EndFragment:000245669 StartSelection:000244460 EndSelection:000245669 SourceURL:https://www.google.com/search?q=us+manufacturing+output+by+year+chart&tbm=isch&source=iu&ictx=1&fir=... us manufacturing output by year chart - Google Search

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Advisor

Re: Gotta love the knee jerk reaction

And of course, as the Econ 101 guys always tell me, more or less correctly, if you raise the minimum wage to $15 then the fast food operators are just going to replace as much labor as they can with self-serve kiosks etc. And so it goes for everything.*

 

But as a general rule of thumb, there's no good reason why a family living in a median cost of living place with 1 1/2 FTE jobs shouldn't make, at minimum, an amount that puts them above the threshold for any social safety net assistance.

 

 

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Veteran Advisor

Re: Gotta love the knee jerk reaction

According to ''' Goldman Sachs ''' the  Chinese  consumer spends  $7. oo  /  day -    1  weeks  salary  for $48.oo / lb. beef  ?

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Des Keller
Senior Reader

Re: Gotta love the knee jerk reaction

Yes, the American consumer should defy the basic laws of economics and seek to buy more expensive goods.

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