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Contributor

Re: Gotta love the knee jerk reaction

Everyone take a breath.  I agree with the original poster.

 

Soy may go down some if the tariffs take effect--until the other countries run out.  Plant less soy or lower your costs if this happens.  For the life of me I cannot figure out why cash rent is still so high.  

 

Parts may go up some, the great thing is that we can employ our stateside machine shops for the parts we buy.  I'm willing to pay more, if it really comes to that.  I bet we'll be surprised how cheap our own people can produce, likely with better quality.  

 

Equipment prices may go up some.  We may need to buy less equipment and make due longer with what we have--even this will employ the local machine shop.  

 

I happen to like my 7300 planter and Deere 40 series tractors....which do not really require parts from here or China...

 

We need to stop buying junk at Walmart altogether.  I only buy motor oil and RV antifreeze.  No more plastic junk for me.  Walmart should be charged for everything that goes into a landfill that's less than three years old.  

 

Take that money and buy a quality American product that you can pass down from one generation to the next.  If our people over here make the same plastic junk, do not buy it until it improves.  Our quality of life suffers from clutter anyhow.  

 

And let's employ the stricken people in middle America--lots of them are hooked on painkillers or meth.  I'm sure the corporate money will start to flow into drug reform/treatment when they realize that they're running out of workers.  It's not all on the corporations but let's see less outsourcing and more taking care of our own.  The economic incentive needs to be there, which seems to be lacking presently.  

 

And whether Trump can fix these things or not, time will tell.  Let's maybe give him a fighting chance and not pretend he's about to be indicted, as CNN does on a weekly basis.  They worshiped Obummer, hate the present guy.  Yes, sometime somewhere he probably did something wrong.  We elected an experimental candidate so now let's give him a fighting chance.  It is an absolute mess.  Any volunteers for his job?  If not, let's give him a chance.

 

I'm not an economist but it strikes me as reasonable to employ more of our own people, which should probably increase revenue to our govt. both because of the tariff and less money disappearing across the ocean, only to return in meager sums.  Aren't we better off employing our own people, buying less abroad--wouldn't that actually increase the revenue to the government?  Now I sort of hijacked the original post but wouldn't this actually increase the revenue to the U.S. treasury?  If we don't get more taxpayers by employing the unemployed, won't we who produce something bear the burden ourselves?

 

Just think if 25% of the Federal workforce (the govt answer to unemployment) moved to manufacturing instead.  We save on those worthless salaries and avoid China imports all at the same time! 

 

 

Senior Contributor

Re: Whistling by the graveyard

America, the first thing you have to wrap your head around is that it is no longer 1945!

 

In case you haven't noticed,  Europe and Japan is no longer a bombed out crater, China and Russia have rebuilt from the devastation of being a war front.

 

South America is no longer a refuge for Nazi officers, central America is not the special preserve of United Fruit or the CIA anymore. They are now the new Iowa.

 

The Black sea wheat that is disrupting the wheat market its about to be replaced by corn and soybeans. With daylight neutral beans anything south of 54'40 is a potential beanfield. Chinese corn can and will be replaced  by soy plantings and be backfilled with cereal imports where there are far more suppliers that for soy.

 

US soybeans are no longer the US dollar of world trade.  China has more options than expected if one looks with non-USA eyes.

 

And in spite of all this, you still think you have China over a barrel, look up the Australian Wool Marketing Board. They had a far larger control over the world supply of wool than the US has over soy. See what happened when they tried to play hardball with the Chinese importers.

 

 

 

 

 

Veteran Advisor

Re: Whistling by the graveyard

Backmansasktel, you are right, this isn't 1945. Ukraine is the new battlefield with Russia that has cost over 10,000 lives, so its not a reliable source of grain, South America has depleted its rainforest to plant beans and we no longer use much wool. 

 

Also, world population in 1950 was estimated to be 2.5 billion. It is estimated that we have about 7.5 billion mouths to feed in 2018. 

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Veteran Advisor

Re: Gotta love the knee jerk reaction

Sorry folks, but I almost totally disagree.
I know you'll paint me every color of the rainbow,
But I don't care...
This past week has been HORRIBLE on agriculture,
And bluntly, it is at the presidents feet.
The captain of the ship directs and drives the
Ship, the ship hands take orders from the captain.

I feel he has sold agriculture out...he knows nothing
About it and doesn't care (about many things)
Oh we have wonderful optics, with sunny and
The like but the allowance today by epa to
Not hold refinerys to the RINs program, just cut
Sunny's legs off, showing he has no power
And trump dumping the farmers off at the side
Of the road...and remember a few short weeks
Ago he wanted to do away with the RINs all
Together.
Then no trade agreements, we just started a trade
War with one of our biggest customer ?
Folks...look at your budgets.,..just how much
Did Trump's actions cost you on your farm.
Take your projected yeild and multiply by
50 cents a bu on beans.....for a start.
Corn boys...what happens to corn use when
A buyer of ethanol quits buying, and hogs
Drop in price, so they will not pay as much...
I think 30 cents a bu less is far for a start.
How much did that cost you ?

I see big talk on here wanting to pay McDonald's
And other $15 per hour.....what about the farmers ??

You've knocked down what we get for our crops,
Then your making our inputs higher...a number
Of stories about financial stress.....even SF has
Run stories on stress, how to get by etc....

Yet...yet...you wrap your self in the flag and say
You want to spend even more, and expect me
To also, for American jobs, dispite my margins
Are in the single digits.

Oh...the workers get paid yes....but my question
To you red white and blue people....the company
Makes the money....just how many ""american""
Companies are American ?

Look at agriculture....the ownership of seed, fertilizer,
Chemical, and equipment ....the ownership
in America is dropping every day.

Folks, things are bad, things are going to get
Worse, and nobody gives a dam including
The president....he has done shown his hand,
And we're not in it.

I'm genuinely sorry folks.

Oh I know I'm going to be called every name in
The book....

But from all the people I talk to in church, pool hall,
Grocery store, hardware store, implement dealer,
Grain elevators......I think quite of few are viewing
Things as I am, and are sick and tired of being
Everyones monkey.

Peace

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Honored Advisor

Re: Whistling by the graveyard

The thing is, no country has the trade deficit that we have with China, we do have leverage if we just have the guts to use it.  Like a supplier that charges you for more copper wiring and pipe than what they deliver, if we don`t say anything, we`ll keep getting ripped off and they`ll keep doing it.

 

But with wool, it`s kind of a niche market, most people turn their nose up at it.  This country used to subsidize the wool producers in this country, because wool for Army uniforms was seen as a national security aspect.  We wanted a domestic supply of wool and not let the American sheep growers get flooded from foreign imports, so there was a subsidy per pound on American wool.     But, the thing is, that wool subsidy was not a cost to the US taxpayer, it was paid by tariffs on foreign imported wool.   We kept our domestic producers solvent while letting in a small amount of foreign wool at a higher cost.  That was a real win-win.

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Honored Advisor

Re: Gotta love the knee jerk reaction

Overwritten irrelevance.
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Contributor

Re: Gotta love the knee jerk reaction

No name calling coming from my corner.  I get it that there is some serious stress out there.  

 

I can't say I know for sure that Trump's policies will be good for farmers either.  For the sake of argument, let's say he just knocked 50 cents off corn and $1.50 off beans for the next ten years.  I can tell you though, that at least in my part of the country, I lose bids for rental ground to guys who run the land for a 50-60 dollar loss per acre per year--even with our recent high yields.  How long that will last remains to be seen.  It might still go well for those guys, low prices are not necessarily forever.  Last I looked the world population is projected to substantially increase, and some projections already in 2019-20 look okay, not great, for corn farmers at least.  4-5 years at trend or above has not helped, with pretty good weather all around the world.  It's been headwinds from so many different directions, including the value of the dollar and corn being planted clear to the Canadian border (not this year, they are pretty frozen in N Dakota, so we may see 88 million or even lower on the planted acres).  

 

In any case, it's probably not all doom and gloom.  

 

It seems to me that, going back a few years, we had truly reached the point of entitlement.  There was hardly a farmer that didn't roll into town in a brand new pickup and money was running into the ag dealerships like the Mississippi River.  And it was the government that encouraged that--really bad meddling in my view.   Direct payments, lavish insurance, ethanol subsidies.  

 

I don't want to be insensitive to the farmers who truly do not do well for reasons completely out of their control.  It may be the dumbest time to mess with the RIN policy, etc.  On the other hand, there is an announcement that the President will "not let farmers be held hostage" to China's positioning, so maybe we should wait and see how it all shakes out.  The tariffs have not been enacted yet, either, and the word is that the Chinese were buying US beans gangbusters today.   

 

The way I see it, we need a better economy in this country and we need to start looking out for our own.  If and when wages start to rise again, that's good for farmers too.  A lot of smaller guys want to work off the farm and it can be pretty slim pickings.  

 

I don't think realistically that Trump can pander to every special interest group, including farmers.  Look at our debt--that's a national security issue if there ever was one.  

 

It seems that the price run up 2012 and prior put too many acres in production.  I guess it's hard for me to be sympathetic when rental values seem to be in the land of OZ and just today I read that land values are rising in Iowa.  How could that even be possible?   

 

Really all we need is 3-5% under trend line for corn farmers, assuming 88-89 million acres, and prices should rise comfortably.  Then who knows what will happen policy wise--I feel that we need to budget for changing govt. policy, weather, etc.  In other words, land values and hopefully other inputs need to drop, or commodity values need to rise.   Maybe we will get help from the government, maybe not.  The good news is, everyone needs to eat.  

 

No doubt I'm oversimplifying but it maybe doesn't hurt for there to be a land value correction and maybe even some optimism?  

Honored Advisor

Re: Gotta love the knee jerk reaction

I was wrong,  the knee jerk reactions in the press don't last as long as government reports.

Great buying opportunity

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Senior Contributor

Re: Gotta love the knee jerk reaction

nathan quist
Been farming for 48 years and my main complaint is when times are very good like the early to mid 70’s and from 2007-2013. they last too long because all the inputs go up and dont come down very fast if at all. I would like a resonable price for my product. not the highs then the low lows. i would also like to be able to set my price instead of being told what my product is worth. But the system does not like things to be the same for any extended period of time. Cant make money on speculation then
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hombredemaisgm
Senior Reader

Re: Gotta love the knee jerk reaction

http://farmdocdaily.illinois.edu/2018/04/why-they-cant-all-be-trade-surpluses.html

 

An interesting article concerning trade imbalances

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