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Advisor

Grabanski article

Want a good chuckle? read Grabanski's article 165 corn and 44 beans current yield models . Say what??

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Contributor

Re: Grabanski article

Dumbest article Ive read in quite sometime. I havent been to this forum in years(use to post alot here over 5 year ago), but even back then he was way out there.

 

How does the dude still have a following?

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Honored Advisor

Re: Grabanski article

One thing I noticed ---- The corn crop got bigger from the start to the finish of that article.  He must have stopped writing because he ran out of ways to say how big it will be.  

In our fields it has been shrinking this last two weeks.

 

 

No one ever fixed a meal with anything raised by a "Yield model". Smiley Happy

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Senior Contributor

Re: Grabanski article,, link?

Do you hve teh Link? THX

Hate to pile on but it has been tooeasy to see his significant analytic errors. 1 he sounds like  he trades- reduces objectivity for an analyst.  2. 4-5 yrs ago, he stuck to a contrary view of low prod, his choice, but it wasn't even debatable, we destined to be avg or above trend and was. Late, Sept? he finally swapped recognizing the large yields. I had some polite email exchanges with him, asking if considered XYZ in his alanysis, respectful. Outcome he seems to  TOTALLY ignore the elementary aspect that PRICE discounts developing fundamentals as bets it can. IE we can’t just look at fundamentals- expected yields, etc as in yhis yr, many variables coming into play.

BUT that is that the setup, you have to analyze price in comparison, essential. A huge crop is a huge crop but if price knows it, it isn’t a short

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Senior Contributor

Re: Grabanski article,, link? part 2 comment

Seasonally prices start higher late Mar Apr, Apr, risk in ungrown. Good yr &at harvest. When criop size is known within a few %,  is NO time to short. One of the best specs I knew would lgo long at harvest, the next July future and sit til FND.  Large crops, low Px, incite greater use. On avg, he won, not insigificant.

Especiallin in cotton, 60 in some yrs went to 1+ retc.

Lesson in taht even if none of us would do it.

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Senior Contributor

Re: Grabanski article---which gradanski ??

is ray related to the Grabniski in Fargo who is zillions in debt aand soon to go bust ?

 

 

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Honored Advisor

Re: Grabanski article

The crop condition scores were never intended to be used as he is using them. So it is just a simple garbage in - garbage out. Most years his approach would be close to accurate but never in a year with planting delays and moisture extremes.

 

For example, the crop condition scores do not take planting date into acccount. The data is massive proving planting date impacts yields.

 

If you couple late planted beans with a very dry August/September, well the crop condition scores just do not even attempt to capture this effect.

 

It is very good to be able to read the other sides argument however. He claims the "trade" is expecting a 41 bean yield. This is the real question, will nass actually print the bean yield that they find in the field? They might not until January. So, will the committee that makes the final revisions at the lockup before the release mess with the numbers? Ultimately, this is what is wrong with the nass system as currently operated, it is not transparent.

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Honored Advisor

Re: Grabanski article

Harvested our first corn today ---------------- how easy it is to fantize a large crop off of southern irrigation yields.

 

Example our first field got downsized by the drought from a 122 acre circle to a 61 acre half circle (weak well).  Yield went from 105 two years ago to 220 this year.  Acres in western irrigation areas continue to go down overall.

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Senior Advisor

Re: Grabanski article

I hand shelled two samples today at 16% and 17% moisture. We were going to take a swipe through the center of the field with the combine and we received a small shower. 60% chance for additional moisture tonight and tomorrow. Maybe we can get an inch and by the time the ground dries down so will the grain. The coop will accept grain below 16% and will quit discounting at 15.6%. If it doesn't rain tonight, maybe give er a go tomorrow.
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