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ray h.
Senior Contributor

Grain complex (Wheat)

    Its funny how fast a story that can turn market emotions on A dime. Ah there getting rain, there is an upgrade here and an upgrade there. Fact is there is still  A whole bunch of dry acres out there, at least some we can familiarize ourselves with (north American continent) with a host of other crops that very well mite be pressuring wheat. Another interesting thought is there has been a lot of crop bought on the futures and Im betting the buyers do not want to loose money. How about the original story the globe itself is getting pretty hard up as far as the protein complex. My opinion is there is another leg up, coming soon!

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7 Replies
sw363535
Honored Advisor

Re: Grain complex (Wheat)

A couple of other issues to add...

1    freeze damage............. without a doubt

2. add to that that every alternative for a crop looks much better price wise.

Wheat at our local elevator.... today.  ks/ok border sw

wheat  5.53

corn.    6.02

milo (grain sorghum.     6.84

 

I watched wheat being strip tilled for milo yesterday........ price favors anything else.....

And rain just makes that decision more likely

Whatever fertilizer is on the wheat is good for whatever is next....

Wheat is the original "cover crop"

k-289
Senior Advisor

Re: Grain complex (Wheat)

Original  cover  crop  (  good  post )  -  rye  ( 4 letter  word in wheat country )  further  north  - - -

A  P  I  says  3 million  barrel increase , yesterday - ?   So  those  stay at  home Lone Star  folks  from  a  weather  event  just  a  few  weeks  ago ,  playing catch  up  - ?  

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sw363535
Honored Advisor

Re: Grain complex (Wheat)

price gouging ------ using the kansas corporation commission as a scapegoat a Dalhart Texas based natural gas retailer decided after the fact, to price February gas based on the average daily high on spot price.   One customer bill went from $3 per mcf for the month of feb. to $33 per mcf to compensate the company for that daily spot price at $1100 per mcf.  When in fact there was no shortage of supply.  2 farm houses and a garage got billed well over $10k.   Same farmer has two metered sources.  A kansas company and this Texas company.  The kansas company did not price off of the spot market formula....... Farmer was not notified of the change or given a chance to change his source to the kansas company.

sw363535
Honored Advisor

Re: Grain complex (Wheat)

Sorry for the diversion from topic...... 

Wheat continues to be the step child to the US consumer.  The day is coming when we will eat what we can afford to eat.

Then we will need wheat....... instead of wasting water resources.

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ray h.
Senior Contributor

Re: Grain complex (Wheat)

     Another thought, were some in the trade mentioning a lot of this market uptick simply an inflation mode. I hope so because the wheat highs and lows simply are out of touch with the cost of production. The prices are antiquated!

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sw363535
Honored Advisor

Re: Grain complex (Wheat)

Ray until we get congress woke, wheat is doomed,  as long as it carries a 1960's loan rate the mega monopoly buyers will drive it to that level without much competition.  How much can we expect from our tractor at auction when a local banker stands at the auction and says it is only worth half its current bid.  Usda continually appraises wheat at prices 50 years ago.  

I have been shocked at how far down planted acres have gone and continue to see decent wheat grazed out or sprayed to kill and make way for a crop that requires more resources to provide.  That is how wacky commodity pricing is.  The market place is regulated ineffective in the incentive to plant by our intrusive bureaucracy.

The wasting of resources grows exponentially.

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k-289
Senior Advisor

Re: Grain complex (Wheat)

Input  Economics ,  plays  a  role  in  this  equation ,  making it's   way  to,   &  thru '' K  Street '' to  appropriations committees  -  -  - 

Not  a  lot  of  fiscal  markup  on  patient  seed  for  wheat  fields ,  or  the  implements  involved   - maybe  - ? 

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